Evolution of Subjective Hurricane Risk Perceptions: A Bayesian Approach

This paper studies how individuals update subjective risk perceptions in response to hurricane track forecast information, using a unique data set from an event market, the Hurricane Futures Market (HFM). We derive a theoretical Bayesian framework which predicts how traders update their perceptions of the probability of a hurricane making landfall in a certain range of coastline. Our results suggest that traders behave in a way consistent with Bayesian updating but this behavior is based on the perceived quality of the information received.risk perceptions, learning, Bayesian learning, event markets, prediction markets, favorite-longshot bias, hurricanes

Downregulating Notch counteracts KrasG12D-induced ERK activation and oxidative phosphorylation in myeloproliferative neoplasm.

The Notch signaling pathway contributes to the pathogenesis of a wide spectrum of human cancers, including hematopoietic malignancies. Its functions are highly dependent on the specific cellular context. Gain-of-function NOTCH1 mutations are prevalent in human T-cell leukemia, while loss of Notch signaling is reported in myeloid leukemias. Here, we report a novel oncogenic function of Notch signaling in oncogenic Kras-induced myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN). We find that downregulation of Notch signaling in hematopoietic cells via DNMAML expression or Pofut1 deletion significantly blocks MPN development in KrasG12D mice in a cell-autonomous manner. Further mechanistic studies indicate that inhibition of Notch signaling upregulates Dusp1, a dual phosphatase that inactivates p-ERK, and downregulates cytokine-evoked ERK activation in KrasG12D cells. Moreover, mitochondrial metabolism is greatly enhanced in KrasG12D cells but significantly reprogrammed by DNMAML close to that in control cells. Consequently, cell proliferation and expanded myeloid compartment in KrasG12D mice are significantly reduced. Consistent with these findings, combined inhibition of the MEK/ERK pathway and mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation effectively inhibited the growth of human and mouse leukemia cells in vitro. Our study provides a strong rational to target both ERK signaling and aberrant metabolism in oncogenic Ras-driven myeloid leukemia

Characterizing wind gusts in complex terrain

Wind gusts are a key driver of aerodynamic loading, especially for tall structures such a bridges and wind turbines. However, gust characteristics in complex terrain are not well understood and common approximations used to describe wind gust behavior may not be appropriate at heights relevant to wind turbines and other structures. Data collected in the Perdigão experiment are analyzed herein to provide a foundation for improved wind gust characterization and process-level understanding of flow intermittency in complex terrain. High-resolution observations from sonic anemometers and vertically pointing Doppler lidars are used to conduct a detailed study of gust characteristics with a specific focus on the parent distributions of nine gust parameters (that describe velocity, time, and length scales), their joint distributions, height variation, and coherence in the vertical and horizontal planes. Best-fit distributional forms for varying gust properties show good agreement with those from previous experiments in moderately complex terrain but generate nonconservative estimates of the gust properties that are of key importance to structural loading. Probability distributions of gust magnitude derived from vertically pointing Doppler lidars exhibit good agreement with estimates from sonic anemometers despite differences arising from volumetric averaging and the terrain complexity. Wind speed coherence functions during gusty periods (which are important to structural wind loading) are similar to less complex sites for small vertical displacements (10 to 40&thinsp;m), but do not exhibit an exponential form for larger horizontal displacements (800 to 1500&thinsp;m).</p

Child Abuse Pediatrics Research Network: The CAPNET Core Data Project

OBJECTIVE: Examine the epidemiology of subspecialty physical abuse evaluations within CAPNET, a multicenter child abuse pediatrics research network. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of children(in-person or remote) by a child abuse pediatrician (CAP) due to concerns for physical abuse at ten CAPNET hospital systems from February 2021 through December 2021. RESULTS: Among 3667 patients with 3721 encounters, 69.4% wereold; 44.3%old, 59.1% male; 27.1% Black; 57.8% White, 17.0% Hispanic; and 71.0 % had public insurance. The highest level of care was outpatient/emergency department in 60.7%, inpatient unit in 28.0% and intensive care in 11.4%. CAPs performed 79.1% in-person consultations and 20.9% remote consultations. Overall, the most frequent injuries were bruises (35.2%), fractures (29.0%), and traumatic brain injuries (TBI) (16.2%). Abdominal (1.2%) and spine injuries (1.6%) were uncommon. TBI was diagnosed in 30.6% of infants but only 8.4% of 1-year old children. In 68.2% of cases a report to child protective services (CPS) was made prior to CAP consultation; in 12.4% a report was made after CAP consultation. CAPs reported no concern for abuse in 43.0% of cases and mild/intermediate concern in 22.3%. Only 14.2% were categorized as definite abuse. CONCLUSION: Most children in CAPNET werebruises, fractures, or intracranial injuries. CPS reports were frequently made prior to CAP consultation. CAPs had a low level of concern for abuse in majority of cases

Risk Factors for Postcesarean Maternal Infection in a Trial of Extended-Spectrum Antibiotic Prophylaxis

To identify maternal clinical risk factors for postcesarean maternal infection in a randomized clinical trial of preincision extended-spectrum antibiotic prophylaxis

Dengue Infection in Children in Ratchaburi, Thailand: A Cohort Study. II. Clinical Manifestations

Dengue infection is one of the most important diseases transmitted to human by mosquito bite. The disease may be mild or severe. This study reveals the occurrence and clinical features of diseases caused by dengue infection in a 3-year follow-up in school-children aged 3–14 years in Ratchaburi Province, Thailand using an active surveillance for the episodes of fever. Children who had fever were laboratory tested for the evidence of dengue infection and recorded for clinical features. It was found that most of dengue infected patients had headache, anorexia, nausea/vomiting, and muscle ache. About half of the patients had clinical symptoms that closely mimic other diseases, especially respiratory tract infection, and were incorrectly diagnosed by pediatricians. Only 11% of the patients had more a severe disease called “dengue hemorrhagic fever.” This severe disease may be predicted by the presence of anorexia, nausea/vomiting, and abdominal pain after the second day of illness. This study provides better understanding in this disease

Predictors of Making a Referral to Child Protective Services Prior to Expert Consultation

OBJECTIVE: Suspicion for child abuse is influenced by implicit biases. Evaluation by a Child Abuse Pediatrician (CAP) may reduce avoidable child protective services (CPS) referrals. Our objective was to investigate the association of patient demographic, social and clinical characteristics with CPS referral before consultation by a CAP (preconsultation referral). METHODS: Children \u3c5 years-old undergoing in-person CAP consultation for suspected physical abuse from February 2021 through April 2022 were identified in CAPNET, a multicenter child abuse research network. Marginal standardization implemented with logistic regression analysis examined hospital-level variation and identified demographic, social, and clinical factors associated with pre-consultation referral adjusting for CAP’s final assessment of abuse likelihood. RESULTS: Among the 61% (1005/1657) of cases with preconsultation referral, the CAP consultant had low concern for abuse in 38% (384/1005). Preconsultation referrals ranged from 25% to 78% of cases across 10 hospitals (P \u3c .001). In multivariable analyses, preconsultation referral was associated with public insurance, caregiver history of CPS involvement, history of intimate partner violence, higher CAP level of concern for abuse, hospital transfer, and near-fatality (all P \u3c .05). The difference in preconsultation referral prevalence for children with public versus private insurance was significant for children with low CAP concern for abuse (52% vs 38%) but not those with higher concern for abuse (73% vs 73%), (P = .023 for interaction of insurance and abuse likelihood category). There were no differences in preconsultation referral based on race or ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Biases based on socioeconomic status and social factors may impact decisions to refer to CPS before CAP consultation

RSK1 is an exploitable dependency in myeloproliferative neoplasms and secondary acute myeloid leukemia

Myeloid malignancies are heterogenous disorders characterized by distinct molecular drivers but share convergence of oncogenic signaling pathways and propagation by ripe pro-inflammatory niches. Here, we establish a comprehensive transcriptional atlas across the spectrum of myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) and secondary acute myeloid leukemia (sAML) through RNA-sequencing of 158 primary samples encompassing CD34+ hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells and CD14+ monocytes. Supported by mass cytometry (CyTOF) profiling, we reveal aberrant networks of PI3K/AKT/mTOR signalling and NFκB-mediated hyper-inflammation. Combining ATAC-Seq, CUT&Tag, RNA-seq, and CyTOF, we demonstrate that targeting of ribosomal protein S6 kinase A1 (RSK1) suppresses NFκB activation and diminishes pro-inflammatory mediators including tumor necrosis factor (TNF) associated with MPN disease severity and transformation. We further evaluate a therapeutic approach utilizing a first-in-class RSK inhibitor, PMD-026, currently in Phase 2 development for breast cancer, for use in myeloid malignancies. Treatment with PMD-026 suppressed disease burden across seven syngeneic and patient-derived xenograft leukemia mouse models spanning the spectrum of driver and disease-modifying mutations. These findings uncover a therapeutic avenue for a conserved dependency across MPN and sAML

Dengue Vaccines Regulatory Pathways: A Report on Two Meetings with Regulators of Developing Countries

Richard Mahoney and colleagues summarize two recent meetings convened by the Pediatric Dengue Vaccine Initiative and the Developing Countries' Vaccine Regulators Network on regulatory issues that need to be addressed before licensing dengue vaccines