Challenges of Loss to Follow-up in Tuberculosis Research.

In studies evaluating methods for diagnosing tuberculosis (TB), follow-up to verify the presence or absence of active TB is crucial and high dropout rates may significantly affect the validity of the results. In a study assessing the diagnostic performance of the QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube test in TB suspect children in Tanzania, factors influencing patient adherence to attend follow-up examinations and reasons for not attending were examined. In 160 children who attended and 102 children who did not attend scheduled 2-month follow-up baseline health characteristics, demographic data and risk factors for not attending follow-up were determined. Qualitative interviews were used to understand patient and caretakers reasons for not returning for scheduled follow-up. Being treated for active tb in the dots program (OR: 4.14; 95% CI:1.99-8.62;p-value<0.001) and receiving money for the bus fare (OR:129; 95% CI 16->100;P-value<0.001) were positive predictors for attending follow-up at 2 months, and 21/85(25%) of children not attending scheduled follow-up had died. Interviews revealed that limited financial resources, i.e. lack of money for transportation and poor communication, were related to non-adherence. Patients lost to follow-up is a potential problem for TB research. Receiving money for transportation to the hospital and communication is crucial for adherence to follow-up conducted at a study facility. Strategies to ensure follow-up should be part of any study protocol

Effects of growth rate, size, and light availability on tree survival across life stages: a demographic analysis accounting for missing values and small sample sizes.

The data set supporting the results of this article is available in the Dryad repository, http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.6f4qs. Moustakas, A. and Evans, M. R. (2015) Effects of growth rate, size, and light availability on tree survival across life stages: a demographic analysis accounting for missing values.Plant survival is a key factor in forest dynamics and survival probabilities often vary across life stages. Studies specifically aimed at assessing tree survival are unusual and so data initially designed for other purposes often need to be used; such data are more likely to contain errors than data collected for this specific purpose

Biclustering models for two-mode ordinal data

The work in this paper introduces finite mixture models that can be used to simul- taneously cluster the rows and columns of two-mode ordinal categorical response data, such as those resulting from Likert scale responses. We use the popular proportional odds parameterisation and propose models which provide insights into major patterns in the data. Model-fitting is performed using the EM algorithm and a fuzzy allocation of rows and columns to corresponding clusters is obtained. The clustering ability of the models is evaluated in a simulation study and demonstrated using two real data sets

A multi-nation examination of the fatigue and recovery time course during the inaugural Under-18 Six Nations rugby union competition

The purpose of this study was to investigate the neuromuscular and perceptual fatigue responses of elite rugby players during the inaugural Under-18 (U18) Six Nations Festival. One hundred and thirty-three male players from five national squads (73 forwards, 60 backs) were examined during the competition. Each national squad was involved in three matches separated by 96 h each. Over the competition, players completed a daily questionnaire to monitor perceived well-being (WB) and performed daily countermovement jumps (CMJ) to assess neuromuscular function (NMF). Reductions in WB were substantial 24 h after the first and second match in forwards (d=0.77 ±0.21, p<0.0001; d=0.84±0.22, p< 0.001) and backs (d=0.89±0.22, p <0.0001; d=0.58±0.23, p<0.0001) but reached complete recovery in time for the subsequent match. Reductions in CMJ height were substantial 24 h after the first and second match for forwards (d=0.31±0.15, p=0.001; d=0.25±0.17, p=0.0205) and backs (d=0.40±0.17, p=0.0001; d=0.28±0.17, p=0.0062) and recovered at 48 h after match-play. Average WB and CMJ height attained complete recovery within matchday cycles in the investigated international competition. The findings of this study can be useful for practitioners and governing bodies involved with fixture scheduling and training prescription during competitive period

Caste-specific demography and phenology in bumblebees; modelling BeeWalk data

We present novel dynamic mixture models for the monitoring of bumblebee populations on an unprecedented geographical scale, motivated by the UK citizen science scheme BeeWalk. The models allow us for the First time to estimate bumblebee phenology and within-season productivity, defined as the number of individuals in each caste per colony in the population in that year, from citizen science data. All of these parameters are estimated separately for each caste, giving a means of considerable ecological detail in examining temporal changes in the complex life-cycle of a social insect in the wild. Due to the dynamic nature of the models, we are able to produce population trends for a number of UK bumblebee species using the available time-series. Via an additional simulation exercise, we show the extent to which useful information will increase if the survey continues, and expands in scale, as expected. Bumblebees are extraordinarily important components of the ecosystem, providing pollination services of vast economic impact and functioning as indicator species for changes in climate or land-use. Our results demonstrate the changes in both phenology and productivity between years and provide an invaluable tool for monitoring bumblebee populations, many of which are in decline, in the UK and around the world

Modeling Trap-Awareness and Related Phenomena in Capture-Recapture Studies

Trap-awareness and related phenomena whereby successive capture events are not independent is a feature of the majority of capture-recapture studies. This phenomenon was up to now difficult to incorporate in open population models and most authors have chosen to neglect it although this may have damaging consequences. Focusing on the situation where animals exhibit a trap response at the occasion immediately following one where they have been trapped but revert to their original naïve state if they are missed once, we show that trap-dependence is more naturally viewed as a state transition and is amenable to the current models of capture-recapture. This approach has the potential to accommodate lasting or progressively waning trap effects

Equivalence and noninferiority trials – are they viable alternatives for registration of new drugs? (III)

The scientific community's reliance on active-controlled trials is steadily increasing, as widespread agreement emerges concerning the role of these trials as viable alternatives to placebo trials. These trials present substantial challenges with regard to design and interpretation as their complexity increases, and the potential need for larger sample sizes impacts the cost and time variables of the drug development process. The potential efficacy and safety benefits derived from these trials may never be demonstrated by other methods. Active-controlled trials can develop valuable data to inform both prescribers and patients about the dose- and time-dependent actions of any new drug and can contribute to the management and communication of risks associated with the relevant therapeutic products

Cormack-Jolly-Seber models: time and age perspectives

Survival is a key demographic characteristic in many areas including both humandemography and population ecology. However, it is often the case that data collection protocols are different in these areas, resulting in different models and methods of analysis. This paper is motivated for the different emphasis given to the elicitation of the temporal scale (and consequently, on the origin time) in ecological and medical survival studies. Specifically,in medical studies, the origin time is often determined in advance with individuals followed over a period of time at regular (or irregular) intervals, thus focusing on time within study (or age to a given reference point). However, in ecological capture-recapture studies, the capture occasions are typically fixed in advance, with an imperfect detection process observing individuals at these times. Moreover, the temporal scale is often primarily specified at the capture occasion level. In this work we focus on an ecological capture-recapture study related to guillemots and compare and contrast two different temporal scales: (i) calendar (or capture occasion); and (ii) age (or time within study), in terms of the way the data may be represented and in relation to the ecological Cormack-Jolly-Seber-type model. The different temporal scales provides insights into the different underlying structures, which can then becombined into a joint (calendar and age) dependence model

Geochemistry of low-molecular weight hydrocarbons in hydrothermal fluids from Middle Valley, northern Juan de Fuca Ridge

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 70 (2006): 2073-2092, doi:10.1016/j.gca.2006.01.015.Hydrothermal vent fluids from Middle Valley, a sediment-covered mid-ocean ridge on the northern Juan de Fuca Ridge, were sampled in July, 2000. Eight different vents with exit temperatures of 186 to 281°C were sampled from two areas of venting: the Dead Dog and ODP Mound fields. Fluids from the Dead Dog field are characterized by higher concentrations of ΣNH3 and organic compounds (C1-C4 alkanes, ethene, propene, benzene and toluene) compared with fluids from the ODP Mound field. The ODP Mound fluids, however, are characterized by higher C1/(C2+C3) and benzene:toluene ratios than those from the Dead Dog field. The aqueous organic compounds in these fluids have been derived from both bacterial processes (methanogenesis in low-temperature regions during recharge) as well as from thermogenic processes in higher-temperature portions of the subsurface reaction zone. As the sediments undergo hydrothermal alteration, carbon dioxide and hydrocarbons are released to solution as organic matter degrades via a stepwise oxidation process. Compositional and isotopic differences in the aqueous hydrocarbons indicate that maximum subsurface temperatures at the ODP Mound are greater than those at the Dead Dog field. Maximum subsurface temperatures were calculated assuming that thermodynamic equilibrium is attained between alkenes and alkanes, benzene and toluene, and carbon dioxide and methane. The calculated temperatures for alkene-alkane equilibrium are consistent with differences in the dissolved Cl concentrations in fluids from the two fields, and indicate that subsurface temperatures at the ODP Mound are hotter than those at the Dead Dog field. Temperatures calculated assuming benzene-toluene equilibrium and carbon dioxide-methane equilibrium are similar to observed exit temperatures, and do not record the hottest subsurface conditions. The difference in subsurface temperatures estimated using organic geochemical thermometers reflects subsurface cooling processes via mixing of a hot, low-salinity vapor with a cooler, seawater salinity fluid. Because of the disparate temperature dependence of alkene-alkane and benzene-toluene equilibria, the mixed fluid records both the high and low temperature equilibrium conditions. These calculations indicate that vapor-rich fluids are presently being formed in the crust beneath the ODP Mound, yet do not reach the surface due to mixing with the lower-temperature fluids.This work was funded by NSF OCE-9906752