Preliminary space mission design under uncertainty

This paper proposes a way to model uncertainties and to introduce them explicitly in the design process of a preliminary space mission. Traditionally, a system margin approach is used in order to take them into account. In this paper, Evidence Theory is proposed to crystallise the inherent uncertainties. The design process is then formulated as an Optimisation Under Uncertainties (OUU). Three techniques are proposed to solve the OUU problem: (a) an evolutionary multi-objective approach, (b) a step technique consisting of maximising the belief for different levels of performance, and (c) a clustering method that firstly identifes feasible regions. The three methods are applied to the BepiColombo mission and their effectiveness at solving the OUU problem are compared

Image-based Lagrangian Particle Tracking in bed-load experiments

Image analysis has been increasingly used for the measurement of river flows due to its capabilities to furnish detailed quantitative depictions at a relatively low cost. This manuscript describes an application of particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) to a bed-load experiment with lightweight sediment. The key characteristics of the investigated sediment transport conditions were the presence of a covered flow and of a fixed rough bed above which particles were released in limited number at the flume inlet. Under the applied flow conditions, the motion of the individual bed-load particles was intermittent, with alternating movement and stillness terms. The flow pattern was preliminarily characterized by acoustic measurements of vertical profiles of the stream-wise velocity. During process visualization, a large field of view was obtained using two actioncameras placed at different locations along the flume. The experimental protocol is described in terms of channel calibration, experiment realization, image pre-processing, automatic particle tracking, and post-processing of particle track data from the two cameras. The presented proof-of-concept results include probability distributions of the particle hop length and duration. The achievements of this work are compared to those of existing literature to demonstrate the validity of the protocol

A comparative assessment of different deviation strategies for dangerous NEO

In this paper a number of deviation strategies for dangerous Near Earth Objects (NEO) have been compared. For each strategy (i.e. Solar Collector, Nuclear Blast, Kinetic Impactor, Low-thrust Propulsion, Mass Driver) a multi criteria optimisation method has been used to reconstruct the set of Pareto optimal solutions minimising the mass of the spacecraft and the warning time, and maximising the deviation. Then, a dominance criterion has been defined and used to compare all the Pareto sets. The achievable deviation at the MOID, either for a low-thrust or for an impulsive variation of the orbit of the NEO, has been computed through a set of analytical formulas. The variation of the orbit of the NEO has been estimated through a deviation action model that takes into account the wet mass of the spacecraft at the Earth. Finally the technology readiness level of each strategy has been used to compute a more realistic value for the required warning time

Evaluating treatment effectiveness under model misspecification : a comparison of targeted maximum likelihood estimation with bias-corrected matching

Statistical approaches for estimating treatment effectiveness commonly model the endpoint, or the propensity score, using parametric regressions such as generalised linear models. Misspecification of these models can lead to biased parameter estimates. We compare two approaches that combine the propensity score and the endpoint regression, and can make weaker modelling assumptions, by using machine learning approaches to estimate the regression function and the propensity score. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a double-robust method designed to reduce bias in the estimate of the parameter of interest. Bias-corrected matching reduces bias due to covariate imbalance between matched pairs by using regression predictions. We illustrate the methods in an evaluation of different types of hip prosthesis on the health-related quality of life of patients with osteoarthritis. We undertake a simulation study, grounded in the case study, to compare the relative bias, efficiency and confidence interval coverage of the methods. We consider data generating processes with non-linear functional form relationships, normal and non-normal endpoints. We find that across the circumstances considered, bias-corrected matching generally reported less bias, but higher variance than targeted maximum likelihood estimation. When either targeted maximum likelihood estimation or bias-corrected matching incorporated machine learning, bias was much reduced, compared to using misspecified parametric models

Critical Phenomena in Neutron Stars I: Linearly Unstable Nonrotating Models

We consider the evolution in full general relativity of a family of linearly unstable isolated spherical neutron stars under the effects of very small, perturbations as induced by the truncation error. Using a simple ideal-fluid equation of state we find that this system exhibits a type-I critical behaviour, thus confirming the conclusions reached by Liebling et al. [1] for rotating magnetized stars. Exploiting the relative simplicity of our system, we are able carry out a more in-depth study providing solid evidences of the criticality of this phenomenon and also to give a simple interpretation of the putative critical solution as a spherical solution with the unstable mode being the fundamental F-mode. Hence for any choice of the polytropic constant, the critical solution will distinguish the set of subcritical models migrating to the stable branch of the models of equilibrium from the set of subcritical models collapsing to a black hole. Finally, we study how the dynamics changes when the numerically perturbation is replaced by a finite-size, resolution independent velocity perturbation and show that in such cases a nearly-critical solution can be changed into either a sub or supercritical. The work reported here also lays the basis for the analysis carried in a companion paper, where the critical behaviour in the the head-on collision of two neutron stars is instead considered [2].Comment: 15 pages, 9 figure

A Test of the Standard Hypothesis for the Origin of the HI Holes in Holmberg II

The nearby irregular galaxy Holmberg II has been extensively mapped in HI using the Very Large Array (VLA), revealing intricate structure in its interstellar gas component (Puche et al. 1992). An analysis of these structures shows the neutral gas to contain a number of expanding HI holes. The formation of the HI holes has been attributed to multiple supernova events occurring within wind-blown shells around young, massive star clusters, with as many as 10-200 supernovae required to produce many of the holes. From the sizes and expansion velocities of the holes, Puche et al. assigned ages of ~10^7 to 10^8 years. If the supernova scenario for the formation of the HI holes is correct, it implies the existence of star clusters with a substantial population of late-B, A and F main sequence stars at the centers of the holes. Many of these clusters should be detectable in deep ground-based CCD images of the galaxy. In order to test the supernova hypothesis for the formation of the HI holes, we have obtained and analyzed deep broad-band BVR and narrow-band H-alpha images of Ho II. We compare the optical and HI data and search for evidence of the expected star clusters in and around the HI holes. We also use the HI data to constrain models of the expected remnant stellar population. We show that in several of the holes the observed upper limits for the remnant cluster brightness are strongly inconsistent with the SNe hypothesis described in Puche et al. Moreover, many of the HI holes are located in regions of very low optical surface brightness which show no indication of recent star formation. Here we present our findings and explore possible alternative explanations for the existence of the HI holes in Ho II, including the suggestion that some of the holes were produced by Gamma-ray burst events.Comment: 30 pages, including 6 tables and 3 images. To appear in Astron. Journal (June 1999

Optimal low-thrust trajectories to asteroids through an algorithm based on differential dynamic programming

In this paper an optimisation algorithm based on Differential Dynamic Programming is applied to the design of rendezvous and fly-by trajectories to near Earth objects. Differential dynamic programming is a successive approximation technique that computes a feedback control law in correspondence of a fixed number of decision times. In this way the high dimensional problem characteristic of low-thrust optimisation is reduced into a series of small dimensional problems. The proposed method exploits the stage-wise approach to incorporate an adaptive refinement of the discretisation mesh within the optimisation process. A particular interpolation technique was used to preserve the feedback nature of the control law, thus improving robustness against some approximation errors introduced during the adaptation process. The algorithm implements global variations of the control law, which ensure a further increase in robustness. The results presented show how the proposed approach is capable of fully exploiting the multi-body dynamics of the problem; in fact, in one of the study cases, a fly-by of the Earth is scheduled, which was not included in the first guess solution

The time of the Roma in times of crisis: Where has European neoliberal capitalism failed?

This paper argues that the economic and financial crisis that has ensnared Europe from the late 2000s has been instrumental in reshaping employment and social relations in a detrimental way for the majority of the European people. It argues that the crisis has exacerbated the socio-economic position of most Roma people, immigrants as well as of other vulnerable groups. This development is approached here as an outcome of the widening structural inequalities that underpin the crisis within an increasingly neoliberalised Europe. Through recent policy developments and public discourses from a number of European countries I show how rising inequalities nurture racialised social tensions. My account draws on classic and contemporary theoretical propositions that have been propounded about the nature of capitalism, its contemporary re-articulation as well as its ramification for the future of Europe

Flower development and pollen vitality of moringa oleifera lam. Grown in a humid temperate climatic condition

Moringa oleifera is a tropical tree cultivated in many countries. This species has acquired a great importance in human nutrition and it was recently indicated as a “novel food” by the European Commission. Recently, moringa plants have been introduced in humid temperate climatic areas, among which Moreno (Buenos Aires Province-Argentina). In such area, the cultivation is possible for the production of leaves, but plants need protection during winter time in order to overcome damages due to low temperatures and hence to produce capsules and seeds. The main objective of this research was to study flower morphology and anatomy of M. oleifera, as well as microsporogenesis and viability of pollen grains of plants cultivated in Moreno in comparison with those produced in a humid sub-tropical climatic area of Argentina (San Miguel de Tucumán). Flowers grown in the temperate environment resulted similar for morphological parameters to those observed in the sub-tropical environment. Nevertheless, pollen grain fertility depended directly on air temperature and it was negatively affected by the lower temperatures registered in the temperate site. According to the observed results, pollen viability increases with mean monthly temperatures above 16°C.Fil: Radice, Silvia. Universidad de Moron. Facultad de Agronomia y Ciencias Agroalimentarias. Laboratorio de Investigaciones En Fisiología Vegetal; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Giordani, Edgardo. Università degli Studi di Firenze; Itali

Clinical and pathologic characteristics of BRCA-positive and BRCA-negative male breast cancer patients: results from a collaborative multicenter study in Italy

Recently, the number of studies on male breast cancer (MBC) has been increasing. However, as MBC is a rare disease there are difficulties to undertake studies to identify specific MBC subgroups. At present, it is still largely unknown whether BRCA-related breast cancer (BC) in men may display specific characteristics as it is for BRCA-related BC in women. To investigate the clinical-pathologic features of MBC in association with BRCA mutations we established a collaborative Italian Multicenter Study on MBC with the aim to recruit a large series of MBCs. A total of 382 MBCs, including 50 BRCA carriers, were collected from ten Italian Investigation Centres covering the whole country. In MBC patients, BRCA2 mutations were associated with family history of breast/ovarian cancer (p < 0.0001), personal history of other cancers (p = 0.044) and contralateral BC (p = 0.001). BRCA2-associated MBCs presented with high tumor grade (p = 0.001), PR- (p = 0.026) and HER2+ (p = 0.001) status. In a multivariate logistic model BRCA2 mutations showed positive association with personal history of other cancers (OR 11.42, 95 % CI 1.79-73.08) and high tumor grade (OR 4.93, 95 % CI 1.02-23.88) and inverse association with PR+ status (OR 0.19, 95 % CI 0.04-0.92). Based on immunohistochemical (IHC) profile, four molecular subtypes of MBC were identified. Luminal A was the most common subtype (67.7 %), luminal B was observed in 26.5 % of the cases and HER2 positive and triple negative were represented by 2.1 % and 3.7 % of tumors, respectively. Intriguingly, we found that both luminal B and HER2 positive subtypes were associated with high tumor grade (p = 0.003 and 0.006, respectively) and with BRCA2 mutations (p = 0.016 and 0.001, respectively). In conclusion, our findings indicate that BRCA2-related MBCs represent a subgroup of tumors with a peculiar phenotype characterized by aggressive behavior. The identification of a BRCA2-associated phenotype might define a subset of MBC patients eligible for personalized clinical management