Statistics of lattice animals (polyominoes) and polygons

We have developed an improved algorithm that allows us to enumerate the number of site animals (polyominoes) on the square lattice up to size 46. Analysis of the resulting series yields an improved estimate, $\tau = 4.062570(8)$, for the growth constant of lattice animals and confirms to a very high degree of certainty that the generating function has a logarithmic divergence. We prove the bound $\tau > 3.90318.$ We also calculate the radius of gyration of both lattice animals and polygons enumerated by area. The analysis of the radius of gyration series yields the estimate $\nu = 0.64115(5)$, for both animals and polygons enumerated by area. The mean perimeter of polygons of area $n$ is also calculated. A number of new amplitude estimates are given.Comment: 10 pages, 2 eps figure

Education for Sustainable Development: Towards the Sustainable University

We  planned  this  conference  in  anticipation  of  the  end  of  the  UN  Decade  of  Education  for  Sustainable   Development  (DESD),  and  the  start  of  the  next  phase  for  those  involved  in  ESD  here  and   internationally.    At  Plymouth  University,  2015  marks  ten  year  anniversary  since  cross-­‐institutional   work  on  sustainability  and  sustainability  education  was  spearheaded  by  the  founding  of  the  Centre  for   Sustainable  Futures  (CSF).    Coincidentally,  2015  also  marks  a  ten  years  since  the  influential  HEFCE   policy  document  ‘Sustainable  Development  in  Higher  Education’  was  released.   Holding  the  conference  in  January  –  named  after  the  Roman  god  of  doorways,  of  endings  and   beginnings  –  we  sought  to  look  at  some  of  what  has  been  achieved  in  sustainability  education  to  date   and  explore  its  prospects  as  we  move  forward.   Following  an  enthusiastic  response  to  the  call  for  abstracts,  the  conference  featured  a  diverse  range   of  research  papers,  posters,  and  roundtable  presentations  from  academics  and  practitioners  across   the  UK  and  beyond.  The  conference  was  arranged  around  three  overarching  themes:     ESD  Pedagogy:  Criticality,  Creativity,  and  Collaboration   What  are  the  teaching  and  learning  processes  that  enable  students  to  develop  their  own  capacity  to   think  critically  and  creatively  in  the  face  of  global  sustainability  challenges  and,  secondly,  to  act   collaboratively  in  ways  that  pursue  more  hopeful  and  sustainable  futures?   Innovative  Learning  Spaces  for  ESD   What  are  the  physical  environments  that  provide  opportunities  for  new  forms  of  sustainability   education  to  flourish?  What  lies  beyond  the  lecture  hall  that  is  conducive  to  student  learning  through   inquiry-­‐based,  active,  participatory,  interdisciplinary  and  experiential  methods?   Towards  the  Sustainable  University   What  are  effective  approaches  for  leading  institutional  change,  organisational  learning,  and  staff  CPD   towards  sustainability?  This  publication  focuses  on  the  last  theme  –  Towards  the  Sustainable  University.    The  previous   PedRIO  Occasional  Paper  8  looks  at  the  first  theme  ESD  Pedagogy:  Criticality,  Creativity,  and   Collaboration

Emerging Infectious Disease leads to Rapid Population Decline of Common British Birds

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly cited as threats to wildlife, livestock and humans alike. They can threaten geographically isolated or critically endangered wildlife populations; however, relatively few studies have clearly demonstrated the extent to which emerging diseases can impact populations of common wildlife species. Here, we report the impact of an emerging protozoal disease on British populations of greenfinch Carduelis chloris and chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, two of the most common birds in Britain. Morphological and molecular analyses showed this to be due to Trichomonas gallinae. Trichomonosis emerged as a novel fatal disease of finches in Britain in 2005 and rapidly became epidemic within greenfinch, and to a lesser extent chaffinch, populations in 2006. By 2007, breeding populations of greenfinches and chaffinches in the geographic region of highest disease incidence had decreased by 35% and 21% respectively, representing mortality in excess of half a million birds. In contrast, declines were less pronounced or absent in these species in regions where the disease was found in intermediate or low incidence. Also, populations of dunnock Prunella modularis, which similarly feeds in gardens, but in which T. gallinae was rarely recorded, did not decline. This is the first trichomonosis epidemic reported in the scientific literature to negatively impact populations of free-ranging non-columbiform species, and such levels of mortality and decline due to an emerging infectious disease are unprecedented in British wild bird populations. This disease emergence event demonstrates the potential for a protozoan parasite to jump avian host taxonomic groups with dramatic effect over a short time period

Retrospective harm benefit analysis of pre-clinical animal research for six treatment interventions

The harm benefit analysis (HBA) is the cornerstone of animal research regulation and is considered to be a key ethical safeguard for animals. The HBA involves weighing the anticipated benefits of animal research against its predicted harms to animals but there are doubts about how objective and accountable this process is.i. To explore the harms to animals involved in pre-clinical animal studies and to assess these against the benefits for humans accruing from these studies; ii. To test the feasibility of conducting this type of retrospective HBA.Data on harms were systematically extracted from a sample of pre-clinical animal studies whose clinical relevance had already been investigated by comparing systematic reviews of the animal studies with systematic reviews of human studies for the same interventions (antifibrinolytics for haemorrhage, bisphosphonates for osteoporosis, corticosteroids for brain injury, Tirilazad for stroke, antenatal corticosteroids for neonatal respiratory distress and thrombolytics for stroke). Clinical relevance was also explored in terms of current clinical practice. Harms were categorised for severity using an expert panel. The quality of the research and its impact were considered. Bateson's Cube was used to conduct the HBA.The most common assessment of animal harms by the expert panel was 'severe'. Reported use of analgesia was rare and some animals (including most neonates) endured significant procedures with no, or only light, anaesthesia reported. Some animals suffered iatrogenic harms. Many were kept alive for long periods post-experimentally but only 1% of studies reported post-operative care. A third of studies reported that some animals died prior to endpoints. All the studies were of poor quality. Having weighed the actual harms to animals against the actual clinical benefits accruing from these studies, and taking into account the quality of the research and its impact, less than 7% of the studies were permissible according to Bateson's Cube: only the moderate bisphosphonate studies appeared to minimise harms to animals whilst being associated with benefit for humans.This is the first time the accountability of the HBA has been systematically explored across a range of pre-clinical animal studies. The regulatory systems in place when these studies were conducted failed to safeguard animals from severe suffering or to ensure that only beneficial, scientifically rigorous research was conducted. Our findings indicate a pressing need to: i. review regulations, particularly those that permit animals to suffer severe harms; ii. reform the processes of prospectively assessing pre-clinical animal studies to make them fit for purpose; and iii. systematically evaluate the benefits of pre-clinical animal research to permit a more realistic assessment of its likely future benefits

Big data and data repurposing – using existing data to answer new questions in vascular dementia research

Introduction: Traditional approaches to clinical research have, as yet, failed to provide effective treatments for vascular dementia (VaD). Novel approaches to collation and synthesis of data may allow for time and cost efficient hypothesis generating and testing. These approaches may have particular utility in helping us understand and treat a complex condition such as VaD. Methods: We present an overview of new uses for existing data to progress VaD research. The overview is the result of consultation with various stakeholders, focused literature review and learning from the group’s experience of successful approaches to data repurposing. In particular, we benefitted from the expert discussion and input of delegates at the 9th International Congress on Vascular Dementia (Ljubljana, 16-18th October 2015). Results: We agreed on key areas that could be of relevance to VaD research: systematic review of existing studies; individual patient level analyses of existing trials and cohorts and linking electronic health record data to other datasets. We illustrated each theme with a case-study of an existing project that has utilised this approach. Conclusions: There are many opportunities for the VaD research community to make better use of existing data. The volume of potentially available data is increasing and the opportunities for using these resources to progress the VaD research agenda are exciting. Of course, these approaches come with inherent limitations and biases, as bigger datasets are not necessarily better datasets and maintaining rigour and critical analysis will be key to optimising data use

Is leadership a reliable concept in animals? An empirical study in the horse

International audienceLeadership is commonly invoked when accounting for the coordination of group movements in animals, yet it remains loosely defined. In parallel, there is increased evidence of the sharing of group decisions by animals on the move. How leadership integrates within this recent framework on collective decision-making is unclear. Here, we question the occurrence of leadership in horses, a species in which this concept is of prevalent use. The relevance of the three main definitions of leadership - departing first, walking in front travel position, and eliciting the joining of mates - was tested on the collective movements of two semi-free ranging groups of Przewalski horses (Equus ferus przewalskii). We did not find any leader capable of driving most group movements or recruiting mates more quickly than others. Several group members often displayed pre-departure behaviours at the same time, and the simultaneous departure of several individuals was common. We conclude that the decision-making process was shared by several group members a group movement (i.e., partially shared consensus) and that the leadership concept did not help to depict individual departure and leading behaviour across movements in both study groups. Rather, the different proxies of leadership produced conflicting information about individual contributions to group coordination. This study discusses the implications of these findings for the field of coordination and decision-making research

Approximating Optimal Behavioural Strategies Down to Rules-of-Thumb: Energy Reserve Changes in Pairs of Social Foragers

Functional explanations of behaviour often propose optimal strategies for organisms to follow. These ‘best’ strategies could be difficult to perform given biological constraints such as neural architecture and physiological constraints. Instead, simple heuristics or ‘rules-of-thumb’ that approximate these optimal strategies may instead be performed. From a modelling perspective, rules-of-thumb are also useful tools for considering how group behaviour is shaped by the behaviours of individuals. Using simple rules-of-thumb reduces the complexity of these models, but care needs to be taken to use rules that are biologically relevant. Here, we investigate the similarity between the outputs of a two-player dynamic foraging game (which generated optimal but complex solutions) and a computational simulation of the behaviours of the two members of a foraging pair, who instead followed a rule-of-thumb approximation of the game's output. The original game generated complex results, and we demonstrate here that the simulations following the much-simplified rules-of-thumb also generate complex results, suggesting that the rule-of-thumb was sufficient to make some of the model outcomes unpredictable. There was some agreement between both modelling techniques, but some differences arose – particularly when pair members were not identical in how they gained and lost energy. We argue that exploring how rules-of-thumb perform in comparison to their optimal counterparts is an important exercise for biologically validating the output of agent-based models of group behaviour

Sustainability and Long Term-Tenure: Lion Trophy Hunting in Tanzania

It is argued that trophy hunting of large, charismatic mammal species can have considerable conservation benefits but only if undertaken sustainably. Social-ecological theory suggests such sustainability only results from developing governance systems that balance financial and biological requirements. Here we use lion (Panthera leo) trophy hunting data from Tanzania to investigate how resource ownership patterns influence hunting revenue and offtake levels. Tanzania contains up to half of the global population of free-ranging lions and is also the main location for lion trophy hunting in Africa. However, there are concerns that current hunting levels are unsustainable. The lion hunting industry in Tanzania is run by the private sector, although the government leases each hunting block to companies, enforces hunting regulation, and allocates them a species-specific annual quota per block. The length of these leases varies and theories surrounding property rights and tenure suggest hunting levels would be less sustainable in blocks experiencing a high turnover of short-term leases. We explored this issue using lion data collected from 1996 to 2008 in the Selous Game Reserve (SGR), the most important trophy hunting destination in Tanzania. We found that blocks in SGR with the highest lion hunting offtake were also those that experienced the steepest declines in trophy offtake. In addition, we found this high hunting offtake and the resultant offtake decline tended to be in blocks under short-term tenure. In contrast, lion hunting levels in blocks under long-term tenure matched more closely the recommended sustainable offtake of 0.92 lions per 1000 km2. However, annual financial returns were higher from blocks under short-term tenure, providing $133 per km2 of government revenue as compared to$62 per km2 from long-term tenure blocks. Our results provide evidence for the importance of property rights in conservation, and support calls for an overhaul of the system in Tanzania by developing competitive market-based approaches for block allocation based on long-term tenure of ten years

A Technique for Measuring Petal Gloss, with Examples from the Namaqualand Flora

The degree of floral gloss varies between species. However, little is known about this distinctive floral trait, even though it could be a key feature of floral biotic and abiotic interactions. One reason for the absence of knowledge is the lack of a simple, repeatable method of gloss measurement that can be used in the field to study floral gloss. A protocol is described for measuring gloss in petal samples collected in the field, using a glossmeter. Repeatability of the technique is assessed. We demonstrate a simple yet highly accurate and repeatable method that can easily be implemented in the field. We also highlight the huge variety of glossiness found within flowers and between species in a sample of spring-blooming flowers collected in Namaqualand, South Africa. We discuss the potential uses of this method and its applications for furthering studies in plant-pollinator interactions. We also discuss the potential functions of gloss in flowers