Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation : a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Tyrosine photophysics during the early stages of β-amyloid aggregation leading to Alzheimer's

We have monitored the formation of toxic β-amyloid oligomers leading to Alzheimer's disease by detecting changes in the fluorescence decay of intrinsic tyrosine. A new approach based on the non-Debye model of fluorescence kinetics resolves the complexity of the underlying photophysics. The gradual disappearance of nonmonotonic fluorescence decay rates, at the early stages of aggregation as larger, tighter-packed oligomers are formed, is interpreted in terms of tyrosine-peptide dielectric relaxation influencing the decay. The results demonstrate the potential for a new type of fluorescence lifetime sensing based on dual excited-state/dielectric relaxation, with application across a broad range of biological molecules. The results also reconcile previously conflicting models of protein intrinsic fluorescence decay based on rotamers or dielectric relaxation by illustrating conditions under which both are manifest

Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessments

Livestock systems play a key role in global sustainability challenges like food security and climate change, yet, many unknowns and large uncertainties prevail. We present a systematic, spatially explicit assessment of uncertainties related to grazing intensity (GI), a key metric for assessing ecological impacts of grazing, by combining existing datasets on a) grazing feed intake, b) the spatial distribution of livestock, c) the extent of grazing land, and d) its net primary productivity (NPP). An analysis of the resulting 96 maps implies that on average 15% of the grazing land NPP is consumed by livestock. GI is low in most of worlds grazing lands but hotspots of very high GI prevail in 1% of the total grazing area. The agreement between GI maps is good on one fifth of the world's grazing area, while on the remainder it is low to very low. Largest uncertainties are found in global drylands and where grazing land bears trees (e.g., the Amazon basin or the Taiga belt). In some regions like India or Western Europe massive uncertainties even result in GI > 100% estimates. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the input-data for NPP, animal distribution and grazing area contribute about equally to the total variability in GI maps, while grazing feed intake is a less critical variable. We argue that a general improvement in quality of the available global level datasets is a precondition for improving the understanding of the role of livestock systems in the context of global environmental change or food security

Strategies for Assessing Grassland Degradation with Biogeochemical Models

Marginal grasslands provide the basis for livestock rearing and rural livelihoods globally, but are subject to permanent degradation from mismanagement and climate change. Global biogeochemical models are so far not able to represent degradation tipping points in marginal grasslands because plant growth is dependent only on bio-climatic conditions and nutrient availability. Due to their central role for sustaining livelihoods, this lack of representation in such models needs to be addressed. We present an idea on processes and interactions to be considered and on the actual implementation of necessary changes. The model for which we exemplarily develop implementation strategies, LPJmL, accounts already for grassland dynamics globally in a fully coupled framework including soil dynamics and the hydrological cycle. Recent developments include the implementation of grassland harvesting schemes, the nitrogen cycle, fire management practices and representation of a variety of grass and legume species. Existing knowledge on the role of annual and perennial grass species for drought resistance will have to be utilized in order to advance model development. Different strategies for forming below-ground plant organs (roots and storage) have to be better understood from experimental studies before this can be implemented in models. Here, assumptions on functional relationships can be implemented and the resulting grass productivity can be analysed in comparison to field observations. Additionally, the formation of closed swards or tussocks plays a big role for the vulnerability to degradation by avoiding bare soil patches. This spatial phenomenon is usually neglected in models and can only be included by assumptions or in the form of aggregated effects. The long-term development of seed banks of key species determine the capability of regrowth after major drought periods so that seed bank formation and persistence is another component of necessary model development. All these components together with current developments of species competition and niche separation would build a framework that allows scenario assessments on tipping points depending on climatic conditions and management

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime

A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: The ecosystem perspective

Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981–2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model-based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach

The response of temperate aquatic ecosystems to global warming: novel insights from a multidisciplinary project

This article serves as an introduction to this special issue of Marine Biology, but also as a review of the key findings of the AQUASHIFT research program which is the source of the articles published in this issue. AQUASHIFT is an interdisciplinary research program targeted to analyze the response of temperate zone aquatic ecosystems (both marine and freshwater) to global warming. The main conclusions of AQUASHIFT relate to (a) shifts in geographic distribution, (b) shifts in seasonality, (c) temporal mismatch in food chains, (d) biomass responses to warming, (e) responses of body size, (f) harmful bloom intensity, (f), changes of biodiversity, and (g) the dependence of shifts to temperature changes during critical seasonal windows

Clinical, biochemical and genetic spectrum of 70 patients with ACAD9 deficiency: Is riboflavin supplementation effective?

Background: Mitochondrial acyl-CoA dehydrogenase family member 9 (ACAD9) is essential for the assembly of mitochondrial respiratory chain complex I. Disease causing biallelic variants in ACAD9 have been reported in individuals presenting with lactic acidosis and cardiomyopathy. Results: We describe the genetic, clinical and biochemical findings in a cohort of 70 patients, of whom 29 previously unpublished. We found 34 known and 18 previously unreported variants in ACAD9. No patients harbored biallelic loss of function mutations, indicating that this combination is unlikely to be compatible with life. Causal pathogenic variants were distributed throughout the entire gene, and there was no obvious genotype-phenotype correlation. Most of the patients presented in the first year of life. For this subgroup the survival was poor (50% not surviving the first 2 years) comparing to patients with a later presentation (more than 90% surviving 10 years). The most common clinical findings were cardiomyopathy (85%), muscular weakness (75%) and exercise intolerance (72%). Interestingly, severe intellectual deficits were only reported in one patient and

N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required