Capturing Regular Human Activity through a Learning Context Memory

A learning context memory consisting of two main parts is presented. The first part performs lossy data compression, keeping the amount of stored data at a minimum by combining similar context attributes — the compression rate for the presented GPS data is 150:1 on average. The resulting data is stored in an appropriate data structure highlighting the level of compression. Elements with a high level of compression are used in the second part to form the start and end points of episodes capturing common activity consisting of consecutive events. The context memory is used to investigate how little context data can be stored containing still enough information to capture regular human activity

Underuse of coronary revascularization procedures in patients considered appropriate candidates for revascularization.

Background: Ratings by an expert panel of the appropriateness of treatments may offer better guidance for clinical practice than the variable decisions of individual clinicians, yet there have been no prospective studies of clinical outcomes. We compared the clinical outcomes of patients treated medically after angiography with those of patients who underwent revascularization, within groups defined by ratings of the degree of appropriateness of revascularization in varying clinical circumstances.Methods: This was a prospective study of consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography at three London hospitals. Before patients were recruited, a nine-member expert panel rated the appropriateness of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) and coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) on a nine-point scale (with 1 denoting highly inappropriate and 9 denoting highly appropriate) for specific clinical indications. These ratings were then applied to a population of patients with coronary artery disease. However, the patients were treated without regard to the ratings. A total of 2552 patients were followed for a median of 30 months after angiography.Results: Of 908 patients with indications for which PTCA was rated appropriate (score, 7 to 9), 34 percent were treated medically; these patients were more likely to have angina at follow-up than those who underwent PTCA (odds ratio, 1.97; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.29 to 3.00). Of 1353 patients with indications for which CABG was considered appropriate, 26 percent were treated medically; they were more likely than those who underwent CABG to die or have a nonfatal myocardial infarction - the composite primary outcome (hazard ratio, 4.08; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.82 to 5.93) - and to have angina (odds ratio, 3.03; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.08 to 4.42). Furthermore, there was a graded relation between rating and outcome over the entire scale of appropriateness (P for linear trend = 0.002).Conclusions: On the basis of the ratings of the expert panel, we identified substantial underuse of coronary revascularization among patients who were considered appropriate candidates for these procedures. Underuse was associated with adverse clinical outcomes. (N Engl J Med 2001;344:645-54.) Copyright (C) 2001 Massachusetts Medical Society

Motivating Students towards Online Learning: Institutional Strategies and Imperatives.

In: A.J. Kallenberg and M.J.J.M. van de Ven (Eds), 2002, The New Educational Benefits of ICT in Higher Education: Proceedings. Rotterdam: Erasmus Plus BV, OECR ISBN 90-9016127-9This paper examines the issue of motivation as it applies to online learning. It argues that whilst institutions are currently focussing much effort on the integration and embedding of virtual learning environments, the student perspective is receiving very little attention. Institutional strategies include adopting training and support for academic staff in developing online learning, support for institutional structures to enable the integration of systems and the sharing of good practice and expertise. However, there is very little evidence that institutions are giving enough consideration to the student perspective and in particular the issues of motivation and engagement. The paper begins by examining the characteristics of good motivation and learning approaches that can be characterised as ‘open’ and ‘closed’ approaches to learning. It then examines Keller's (1983) instructional design model for student motivation and his four components that contribute to motivation: arousing interest, creating relevance, developing an expectancy of success, and providing extrinsic/intrinsic rewards. The paper then provides key findings from the evaluation studies to illustrate specific instances of how the nature of the learning environment affected motivation either beneficially or detrimentally. The paper concludes with a set of suggested strategies for optimising levels of student motivation towards virtual or online learning in order to ensure that the organisational investment in new approaches to learning will be repaid through high levels of student participation and effective learning. These conclude that virtual learning needs to provide opportunities not available elsewhere; that tangible extrinsic motivators need to built in; that learners must have clear expectations in a virtual environment; specific guidance is needed to exploit opportunities and the level of threat must be managed through support and peer group induction. The paper ends by outlining future work to be undertaken in this area to exploit the ideas further

Macrophage transactivation for chemokine production identified as a negative regulator of granulomatous inflammation using agent-based modeling

Cellular activation in trans by interferons, cytokines and chemokines is a commonly recognized mechanism to amplify immune effector function and limit pathogen spread. However, an optimal host response also requires that collateral damage associated with inflammation is limited. This may be particularly so in the case of granulomatous inflammation, where an excessive number and / or excessively florid granulomas can have significant pathological consequences. Here, we have combined transcriptomics, agent-based modeling and in vivo experimental approaches to study constraints on hepatic granuloma formation in a murine model of experimental leishmaniasis. We demonstrate that chemokine production by non-infected Kupffer cells in the Leishmania donovani-infected liver promotes competition with infected KCs for available iNKT cells, ultimately inhibiting the extent of granulomatous inflammation. We propose trans-activation for chemokine production as a novel broadly applicable mechanism that may operate early in infection to limit excessive focal inflammation

Evaluation of Machine Learning Methods to Predict Coronary Artery Disease Using Metabolomic Data

Metabolomic data can potentially enable accurate, non-invasive and low-cost prediction of coronary artery disease. Regression-based analytical approaches however might fail to fully account for interactions between metabolites, rely on a priori selected input features and thus might suffer from poorer accuracy. Supervised machine learning methods can potentially be used in order to fully exploit the dimensionality and richness of the data. In this paper, we systematically implement and evaluate a set of supervised learning methods (L1 regression, random forest classifier) and compare them to traditional regression-based approaches for disease prediction using metabolomic data

Type and timing of heralding in ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction: an analysis of prospectively collected electronic healthcare records linked to the national registry of acute coronary syndromes.

AIMS: It is widely thought that ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is more likely to occur without warning (i.e. an unanticipated event in a previously healthy person) than non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but no large study has evaluated this using prospectively collected data. The aim of this study was to compare the evolution of atherosclerotic disease and cardiovascular risk between people going on to experience STEMI and NSTEMI. METHODS: We identified patients experiencing STEMI and NSTEMI in the national registry of myocardial infarction for England and Wales (Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project), for whom linked primary care records were available in the General Practice Research Database (as part of the CALIBER collaboration). We compared the prevalence and timing of atherosclerotic disease and major cardiovascular risk factors including smoking, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidaemia, between patients later experiencing STEMI to those experiencing NSTEMI. RESULTS: A total of 8174 myocardial infarction patients were included (3780 STEMI, 4394 NSTEMI). Myocardial infarction without heralding by previously diagnosed atherosclerotic disease occurred in 71% STEMI (95% CI 69-72%) and 50% NSTEMI patients (95% CI 48-51%). The proportions of myocardial infarctions with no prior atherosclerotic disease, major risk factors, or chest pain was 14% (95% CI 13-16%) in STEMI and 9% (95% CI 9-10%) in NSTEMI. The rate of heralding coronary diagnoses was particularly high in the 12 months before infarct; 4.1-times higher (95% CI 3.3-5.0) in STEMI and 3.6-times higher (95% CI 3.1-4.2) in NSTEMI compared to the rate in earlier years. CONCLUSIONS: Acute myocardial infarction occurring without prior diagnosed coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral arterial disease was common, especially for STEMI. However, there was a high prevalence of risk factors or symptoms in patients without previously diagnosed disease. Better understanding of the antecedents in the year before myocardial infarction is required

GPCRTree: online hierarchical classification of GPCR function

Background: G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) play important physiological roles transducing extracellular signals into intracellular responses. Approximately 50% of all marketed drugs target a GPCR. There remains considerable interest in effectively predicting the function of a GPCR from its primary sequence. Findings: Using techniques drawn from data mining and proteochemometrics, an alignment-free approach to GPCR classification has been devised. It uses a simple representation of a protein's physical properties. GPCRTree, a publicly-available internet server, implements an algorithm that classifies GPCRs at the class, sub-family and sub-subfamily level. Conclusion: A selective top-down classifier was developed which assigns sequences within a GPCR hierarchy. Compared to other publicly available GPCR prediction servers, GPCRTree is considerably more accurate at every level of classification. The server has been available online since March 2008 at URL: http://igrid-ext.cryst.bbk.ac.uk/gpcrtree

A 10-year prognostic model for patients with suspected angina attending a chest pain clinic.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Diagnostic models used in the management of suspected angina provide no explicit information about prognosis. We present a new prognostic model of 10-year coronary mortality in patients presenting for the first time with suspected angina to complement the Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability. METHODS AND RESULTS: A multicentre cohort of 8762 patients with suspected angina was followed up for a median of 10 years during which 233 coronary deaths were observed. Developmental (n=4412) and validation (n=4350) prognostic models based on clinical data available at first presentation showed good performance with close agreement and the final model utilised all 8762 patients to maximise power. The prognostic model showed strong associations with coronary mortality for age, sex, chest pain typicality, smoking status, diabetes, pulse rate, and ECG findings. Model discrimination was good (C statistic 0.83), patients in the highest risk quarter accounting for 173 coronary deaths (10-year risk of death: 8.7%) compared with a total of 60 deaths in the three lower risk quarters. When the model was simplified to incorporate only Diamond-Forrester factors (age, sex and character of symptoms) it underestimated coronary mortality risk, particularly in patients with reversible risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time in patients with suspected angina, a prognostic model is presented based on simple clinical factors available at the initial cardiological assessment. The model discriminated powerfully between patients at high risk and lower risk of coronary death during 10-year follow-up. Clinical utility was reflected in the prognostic value it added to the updated Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability

Prolonged dual anti-platelet therapy in stable coronary disease: a comparative observational study of benefits and harms in unselected versus trial populations

Objective: To estimate the potential magnitude in unselected patients of the benefits and harms of prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction seen in selected patients with high risk characteristics in trials. Design: Observational population based cohort study. Setting: PEGASUS-TIMI-54 trial population and CALIBER (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records). Participants: 7238 patients who survived a year or more after acute myocardial infarction. Interventions: Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction. Main outcome measures: Recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease. Fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding. Results: 1676/7238 (23.1%) patients met trial inclusion and exclusion criteria (“target” population). Compared with the placebo arm in the trial population, in the target population the median age was 12 years higher, there were more women (48.6% v 24.3%), and there was a substantially higher cumulative three year risk of both the primary (benefit) trial endpoint of recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease (18.8% (95% confidence interval 16.3% to 21.8%) v 9.04%) and the primary (harm) endpoint of fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding (3.0% (2.0% to 4.4%) v 1.26% (TIMI major bleeding)). Application of intention to treat relative risks from the trial (ticagrelor 60 mg daily arm) to CALIBER’s target population showed an estimated 101 (95% confidence interval 87 to 117) ischaemic events prevented per 10 000 treated per year and an estimated 75 (50 to 110) excess fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeds caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. Generalisation from CALIBER’s target subgroup to all 7238 real world patients who were stable at least one year after acute myocardial infarction showed similar three year risks of ischaemic events (17.2%, 16.0% to 18.5%), with an estimated 92 (86 to 99) events prevented per 10 000 patients treated per year, and similar three year risks of bleeding events (2.3%, 1.8% to 2.9%), with an estimated 58 (45 to 73) events caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. Conclusions: This novel use of primary-secondary care linked electronic health records allows characterisation of “healthy trial participant” effects and confirms the potential absolute benefits and harms of dual antiplatelet therapy in representative patients a year or more after acute myocardial infarction

Using electronic health records to predict costs and outcomes in stable coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVES: To use electronic health records (EHR) to predict lifetime costs and health outcomes of patients with stable coronary artery disease (stable-CAD) stratified by their risk of future cardiovascular events, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments targeted at these populations. METHODS: The analysis was based on 94 966 patients with stable-CAD in England between 2001 and 2010, identified in four prospectively collected, linked EHR sources. Markov modelling was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) stratified by baseline cardiovascular risk. RESULTS: For the lowest risk tenth of patients with stable-CAD, predicted discounted remaining lifetime healthcare costs and QALYs were £62 210 (95% CI £33 724 to £90 043) and 12.0 (95% CI 11.5 to 12.5) years, respectively. For the highest risk tenth of the population, the equivalent costs and QALYs were £35 549 (95% CI £31 679 to £39 615) and 2.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 3.1) years, respectively. A new treatment with a hazard reduction of 20% for myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular disease death and no side-effects would be cost-effective if priced below £72 per year for the lowest risk patients and £646 per year for the highest risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: Existing EHRs may be used to estimate lifetime healthcare costs and outcomes of patients with stable-CAD. The stable-CAD model developed in this study lends itself to informing decisions about commissioning, pricing and reimbursement. At current prices, to be cost-effective some established as well as future stable-CAD treatments may require stratification by patient risk