Order statistics and heavy-tail distributions for planetary perturbations on Oort cloud comets

This paper tackles important aspects of comets dynamics from a statistical point of view. Existing methodology uses numerical integration for computing planetary perturbations for simulating such dynamics. This operation is highly computational. It is reasonable to wonder whenever statistical simulation of the perturbations can be much more easy to handle. The first step for answering such a question is to provide a statistical study of these perturbations in order to catch their main features. The statistical tools used are order statistics and heavy tail distributions. The study carried out indicated a general pattern exhibited by the perturbations around the orbits of the important planet. These characteristics were validated through statistical testing and a theoretical study based on Opik theory.Comment: 9 pages, 12 figures, submitted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Physical Investigation of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17

In this paper we present the observational campaign carried out at ESO NTT and VLT in April and May 2006 to investigate the nature and the structure of the Near Earth Object (144898) 2004 VD17. In spite of a great quantity of dynamical information, according to which it will have a close approach with the Earth in the next century, the physical properties of this asteroid are largely unknown. We performed visible and near--infrared photometry and spectroscopy, as well as polarimetric observations. Polarimetric and spectroscopic data allowed us to classify 2004 VD17 as an E-type asteroid. A good agreement was also found with the spectrum of the aubrite meteorite Mayo Belwa. On the basis of the polarimetric albedo (p_v=0.45) and of photometric data, we estimated a diameter of about 320 m and a rotational period of about 2 hours. The analysis of the results obtained by our complete survey have shown that (144898) 2004 VD17 is a peculiar NEO, since it is close to the breakup limits for fast rotator asteroids, as defined by Pravec and Harris (2000). These results suggest that a more robust structure must be expected, as a fractured monolith or a rubble pile in a "strength regime" (Holsapple 2002).Comment: 32 pages, 7 figure, paper accepted for publication in Icaru

On The Maximum Mass of Stellar Black Holes

We present the spectrum of compact object masses: neutron stars and black holes that originate from single stars in different environments. In particular, we calculate the dependence of maximum black hole mass on metallicity and on some specific wind mass loss rates (e.g., Hurley et al. and Vink et al.). Our calculations show that the highest mass black holes observed in the Galaxy M_bh = 15 Msun in the high metallicity environment (Z=Zsun=0.02) can be explained with stellar models and the wind mass loss rates adopted here. To reach this result we had to set Luminous Blue Variable mass loss rates at the level of about 0.0001 Msun/yr and to employ metallicity dependent Wolf-Rayet winds. With such winds, calibrated on Galactic black hole mass measurements, the maximum black hole mass obtained for moderate metallicity (Z=0.3 Zsun=0.006) is M_bh,max = 30 Msun. This is a rather striking finding as the mass of the most massive known stellar black hole is M_bh = 23-34 Msun and, in fact, it is located in a small star forming galaxy with moderate metallicity. We find that in the very low (globular cluster-like) metallicity environment the maximum black hole mass can be as high as M_bh,max = 80 Msun (Z=0.01 Zsun=0.0002). It is interesting to note that X-ray luminosity from Eddington limited accretion onto an 80 Msun black hole is of the order of about 10^40 erg/s and is comparable to luminosities of some known ULXs. We emphasize that our results were obtained for single stars only and that binary interactions may alter these maximum black hole masses (e.g., accretion from a close companion). This is strictly a proof-of-principle study which demonstrates that stellar models can naturally explain even the most massive known stellar black holes.Comment: 15 pages, ApJ accepte

Emerging properties of financial time series in the “Game of Life”

We explore the spatial complexity of Conway’s “Game of Life,” a prototypical cellular automaton by means of a geometrical procedure generating a two-dimensional random walk from a bidimensional lattice with periodical boundaries. The one-dimensional projection of this process is analyzed and it turns out that some of its statistical properties resemble the so-called stylized facts observed in financial time series. The scope and meaning of this result are discussed from the viewpoint of complex systems. In particular, we stress how the supposed peculiarities of financial time series are, often, overrated in their importance

Simbol-X Hard X-ray Focusing Mirrors: Results Obtained During the Phase A Study

Simbol-X will push grazing incidence imaging up to 80 keV, providing a strong improvement both in sensitivity and angular resolution compared to all instruments that have operated so far above 10 keV. The superb hard X-ray imaging capability will be guaranteed by a mirror module of 100 electroformed Nickel shells with a multilayer reflecting coating. Here we will describe the technogical development and solutions adopted for the fabrication of the mirror module, that must guarantee an Half Energy Width (HEW) better than 20 arcsec from 0.5 up to 30 keV and a goal of 40 arcsec at 60 keV. During the phase A, terminated at the end of 2008, we have developed three engineering models with two, two and three shells, respectively. The most critical aspects in the development of the Simbol-X mirrors are i) the production of the 100 mandrels with very good surface quality within the timeline of the mission; ii) the replication of shells that must be very thin (a factor of 2 thinner than those of XMM-Newton) and still have very good image quality up to 80 keV; iii) the development of an integration process that allows us to integrate these very thin mirrors maintaining their intrinsic good image quality. The Phase A study has shown that we can fabricate the mandrels with the needed quality and that we have developed a valid integration process. The shells that we have produced so far have a quite good image quality, e.g. HEW <~30 arcsec at 30 keV, and effective area. However, we still need to make some improvements to reach the requirements. We will briefly present these results and discuss the possible improvements that we will investigate during phase B.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, invited talk at the conference "2nd International Simbol-X Symposium", Paris, 2-5 december, 200

Migration of Jupiter-family comets and resonant asteroids to near-Earth space

We estimated the rate of comet and asteroid collisions with the terrestrial planets by calculating the orbits of 13000 Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs) and 1300 resonant asteroids and computing the probabilities of collisions based on random-phase approximations and the orbital elements sampled with a 500 yr step. The Bulirsh-Stoer and a symplectic orbit integrator gave similar results for orbital evolution, but sometimes give different collision probabilities with the Sun. A small fraction of former JCOs reached orbits with aphelia inside Jupiter's orbit, and some reached Apollo orbits with semi-major axes less than 2 AU, Aten orbits, and inner-Earth orbits (with aphelia less than 0.983 AU) and remained there for millions of years. Though less than 0.1% of the total, these objects were responsible for most of the collision probability of former JCOs with Earth and Venus. Some Jupiter-family comets can reach inclinations i>90 deg. We conclude that a significant fraction of near-Earth objects could be extinct comets that came from the trans-Neptunian region.Comment: Proc. of the international conference "New trends in astrodynamics and applications" (20-22 January 2003, University of Maryland, College Park

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Accretion of Planetary Material onto Host Stars

Accretion of planetary material onto host stars may occur throughout a star's life. Especially prone to accretion, extrasolar planets in short-period orbits, while relatively rare, constitute a significant fraction of the known population, and these planets are subject to dynamical and atmospheric influences that can drive significant mass loss. Theoretical models frame expectations regarding the rates and extent of this planetary accretion. For instance, tidal interactions between planets and stars may drive complete orbital decay during the main sequence. Many planets that survive their stars' main sequence lifetime will still be engulfed when the host stars become red giant stars. There is some observational evidence supporting these predictions, such as a dearth of close-in planets around fast stellar rotators, which is consistent with tidal spin-up and planet accretion. There remains no clear chemical evidence for pollution of the atmospheres of main sequence or red giant stars by planetary materials, but a wealth of evidence points to active accretion by white dwarfs. In this article, we review the current understanding of accretion of planetary material, from the pre- to the post-main sequence and beyond. The review begins with the astrophysical framework for that process and then considers accretion during various phases of a host star's life, during which the details of accretion vary, and the observational evidence for accretion during these phases.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures (with some redacted), invited revie

Accurate analytical approximation of asteroid deflection with constant tangential thrust

We present analytical formulas to estimate the variation of achieved deflection for an Earth-impacting asteroid following a continuous tangential low-thrust deflection strategy. Relatively simple analytical expressions are obtained with the aid of asymptotic theory and the use of Peláez orbital elements set, an approach that is particularly suitable to the asteroid deflection problem and is not limited to small eccentricities. The accuracy of the proposed formulas is evaluated numerically showing negligible error for both early and late deflection campaigns. The results will be of aid in planning future low-thrust asteroid deflection mission

Population Genetics of Franciscana Dolphins (Pontoporia blainvillei): Introducing a New Population from the Southern Edge of Their Distribution

Due to anthropogenic factors, the franciscana dolphin, Pontoporia blainvillei, is the most threatened small cetacean on the Atlantic coast of South America. Four Franciscana Management Areas have been proposed: Espiritu Santo to Rio de Janeiro (FMA I), São Paulo to Santa Catarina (FMA II), Rio Grande do Sul to Uruguay (FMA III), and Argentina (FMA IV). Further genetic studies distinguished additional populations within these FMAs. We analyzed the population structure, phylogeography, and demographic history in the southernmost portion of the species range. From the analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences, 5 novel haplotypes were found, totalizing 60 haplotypes for the entire distribution range. The haplotype network did not show an apparent phylogeographical signal for the southern FMAs. Two populations were identified: Monte Hermoso (MH) and Necochea (NC)+Claromecó (CL)+Río Negro (RN). The low levels of genetic variability, the relative constant size over time, and the low levels of gene flow may indicate that MH has been colonized by a few maternal lineages and became isolated from geographically close populations. The apparent increase in NC+CL+RN size would be consistent with the higher genetic variability found, since genetic diversity is generally higher in older and expanding populations. Additionally, RN may have experienced a recent split from CL and NC; current high levels of gene flow may be occurring between the latter ones. FMA IV would comprise four franciscana dolphin populations: Samborombón West+Samborombón South, Cabo San Antonio+Buenos Aires East, NC+CL+Buenos Aires Southwest+RN and MH. Results achieved in this study need to be taken into account in order to ensure the long-term survival of the species.Fil: Gariboldi, María Constanza. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; ArgentinaFil: Tunez, Juan Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Luján; ArgentinaFil: Dejean, Cristina Beatriz. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras. Instituto de Ciencias Antropológicas. Sección Antropología Biológica; ArgentinaFil: Failla, Mauricio. Fundación Cethus; ArgentinaFil: Vitullo, Alfredo Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; ArgentinaFil: Negri, Maria Fernanda. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales ; ArgentinaFil: Cappozzo, Humberto Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Maimónides. Área de Investigaciones Biomédicas y Biotecnológicas. Centro de Estudios Biomédicos, Biotecnológicos, Ambientales y de Diagnóstico; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales ; Argentin