Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty and risk

In September 2002, a new market in Economic Derivatives was launched allowing traders to take positions on future values of several macroeconomic data releases. We provide an initial analysis of the prices of these options. We find that market-based measures of expectations are similar to survey-based forecasts although the market-based measures somewhat more accurately predict financial market responses to surprises in data. These markets also provide implied probabilities of the full range of specific outcomes, allowing us to measure uncertainty, assess its driving forces, and compare this measure of uncertainty with the dispersion of point-estimates among individual forecasters (a measure of disagreement). We also assess the accuracy of market-generated probability density forecasts. A consistent theme is that few of the behavioral anomalies present in surveys of professional forecasts survive in equilibrium, and that these markets are remarkably well calibrated. Finally we assess the role of risk, finding little evidence that risk-aversion drives a wedge between market prices and probabilities in this market

Magnetic structure of CeRhIn5_{5} under magnetic field

The magnetically ordered ground state of CeRhIn$_{5}$ at ambient pressure and zero magnetic field is an incomensurate helicoidal phase with the propagation vector $\bf{k}$=(1/2, 1/2, 0.298) and the magnetic moment in the basal plane of the tetragonal structure. We determined by neutron diffraction the two different magnetically ordered phases of CeRhIn$_{5}$ evidenced by bulk measurements under applied magnetic field in its basal plane. The low temperature high magnetic phase corresponds to a sine-wave structure of the magnetization being commensurate with $\bf{k}$=(1/2, 1/2, 1/4). At high temperature, the phase is incommensurate with $\bf{k}$=(1/2, 1/2, 0.298) and a possible small ellipticity. The propagation vector of this phase is the same as the one of the zero-field structure.Comment: 4 Figure

Sexual reproduction and mating-type-mediated strain development in the penicillin-producing fungus Penicillium chrysogenum

Penicillium chrysogenum is a filamentous fungus of major medical and historical importance, being the original and present-day industrial source of the antibiotic penicillin. The species has been considered asexual for more than 100 y, and despite concerted efforts, it has not been possible to induce sexual reproduction, which has prevented sexual crosses being used for strain improvement. However, using knowledge of mating-type (MAT) gene organization, we now describe conditions under which a sexual cycle can be induced leading to production of meiotic ascospores. Evidence of recombination was obtained using both molecular and phenotypic markers. The identified heterothallic sexual cycle was used for strain development purposes, generating offspring with novel combinations of traits relevant to penicillin production. Furthermore, the MAT1-1–1 mating-type gene, known primarily for a role in governing sexual identity, was also found to control transcription of a wide range of genes with biotechnological relevance including those regulating penicillin production, hyphal morphology, and conidial formation. These discoveries of a sexual cycle and MAT gene function are likely to be of broad relevance for manipulation of other asexual fungi of economic importance

Guidance in the chaos:Effects of science communication by virologists during the COVID-19 crisis in Germany and the role of parasocial phenomena

During the COVID-19 pandemic, virologists gained a prominent role in traditional and social media in Germany; several participated in regular podcasts. Using a two-wave survey (n = 696/361 at Time 1/2), we explore which impact the strong media presence of virologists had on media users and what role parasocial phenomena (asymmetric interactions and relationships with virologists) played. People who favored a specific virologist scored higher on various cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes. Exposure to the virologist was related to these outcomes and parasocial phenomena turned out as an intervening variable between exposure and subjective and objective knowledge (time 1), solace, and behavioral engagement (both times). We did not, however, find effects over time when controlling for the time 1 values, which rather speak against more long-term media effects. A higher need for leadership also predicted the formation of parasocial phenomena. We discuss the theoretical implications for the role of parasocial phenomena in science communication via digital media

Tumor-derived exosomes confer antigen-specific immunosuppression in a murine delayed-type hypersensitivity model

Exosomes are endosome-derived small membrane vesicles that are secreted by most cell types including tumor cells. Tumor-derived exosomes usually contain tumor antigens and have been used as a source of tumor antigens to stimulate anti-tumor immune responses. However, many reports also suggest that tumor-derived exosomes can facilitate tumor immune evasion through different mechanisms, most of which are antigen-independent. In the present study we used a mouse model of delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) and demonstrated that local administration of tumor-derived exosomes carrying the model antigen chicken ovalbumin (OVA) resulted in the suppression of DTH response in an antigen-specific manner. Analysis of exosome trafficking demonstrated that following local injection, tumor-derived exosomes were internalized by CD11c+ cells and transported to the draining LN. Exosome-mediated DTH suppression is associated with increased mRNA levels of TGF-β1 and IL-4 in the draining LN. The tumor-derived exosomes examined were also found to inhibit DC maturation. Taken together, our results suggest a role for tumor-derived exosomes in inducing tumor antigen-specific immunosuppression, possibly by modulating the function of APCs. © 2011 Yang et al

Conditionally Helpful? The influence of Person-, Situation-, and Device-Specific Factors on Maternal Smartphone Use for Stress Coping and on Coping Effectiveness

Smartphones are omnipresent in the daily lives of parents and provide access to multiple resources in stressful situations. Thus, smartphones might be valuable coping tools. Previous research has mostly focused on the negative effects of parental phone use. In the present study, we investigated how mothers use smartphones for coping with stress and whether their phone use for coping is effective. We also explored factors on different levels (situation, person, device) which could influence phone use and coping effectiveness. Building on a one-week experience sampling study with over 200 mothers and multilevel models, we found that in stressful situations while being with children, mothers used their smartphones mostly for emotion-focused coping such as self-distraction and taking a break. Problem-focused coping was less prevalent. Mothers reporting increased cognitive phone salience used it more for coping with stress. Phone use for coping compared to no use related to lower stress decrease. No person-, situation-, or device-specific factors moderated the effects of phone use on coping effectiveness. Using positive phone content, however, was associated with increased perceived coping efficacy. Our results suggest that phone use is not generally successful for coping, but that momentary device-specific factors such as content characteristics might determine whether phones can be used for coping in an effective way

National interest to global reform: patterns of reasoning in British foreign policy discourse

Discussion of the national interest often focuses on how Britain's influence can be maximized, rather than on the goals that influence serves. Yet what gives content to claims about the national interest is the means-ends reasoning which links interests to deeper goals. In ideal-typical terms, this can take two forms. The first, and more common, approach is conservative: it infers national interests and the goals they advance from existing policies and commitments. The second is reformist: it starts by specifying national goals and then asks how they are best advanced under particular conditions. New Labour's foreign policy discourse is notable for its explicit use of a reformist approach. Indeed, Gordon Brown's vision of a 'new global society' not only identifies global reform as a key means of fulfilling national goals, but also thereby extends the concept of the national interest well beyond a narrow concern with national security