Simulating California reservoir operation using the classification and regression-tree algorithm combined with a shuffled cross-validation scheme

The controlled outflows from a reservoir or dam are highly dependent on the decisions made by the reservoir operators, instead of a natural hydrological process. Difference exists between the natural upstream inflows to reservoirs and the controlled outflows from reservoirs that supply the downstream users. With the decision maker's awareness of changing climate, reservoir management requires adaptable means to incorporate more information into decision making, such as water delivery requirement, environmental constraints, dry/wet conditions, etc. In this paper, a robust reservoir outflow simulation model is presented, which incorporates one of the well-developed data-mining models (Classification and Regression Tree) to predict the complicated human-controlled reservoir outflows and extract the reservoir operation patterns. A shuffled cross-validation approach is further implemented to improve CART's predictive performance. An application study of nine major reservoirs in California is carried out. Results produced by the enhanced CART, original CART, and random forest are compared with observation. The statistical measurements show that the enhanced CART and random forest overperform the CART control run in general, and the enhanced CART algorithm gives a better predictive performance over random forest in simulating the peak flows. The results also show that the proposed model is able to consistently and reasonably predict the expert release decisions. Experiments indicate that the release operation in the Oroville Lake is significantly dominated by SWP allocation amount and reservoirs with low elevation are more sensitive to inflow amount than others

Heavy paths and cycles in weighted graphs

A weighted graph is a graph in which each edge e is assigned a non-negative\ud number $w(e)$, called the weight of $e$. In this paper, some theorems on the\ud existence of long paths and cycles in unweighted graphs are generalized to heavy\ud paths and cycles in weighted graphs

Model performance of downscaling 1999-2004 hydrometeorological fields to the upper Rio Grande basin using different forcing datasets

This study downscaled more than five years of data (1999-2004) for hydrometeorological fields over the upper Rio Grande basin (URGB) to a 4-km resolution using a regional model [fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5, version 3)] and two forcing datasets that include National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR reanalysis-1 (R1) and North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The long-term high-resolution simulation results show detailed patterns of hydroclimatological fields that are highly related to the characteristics of the regional terrain; the most important of these patterns are precipitation localization features caused by the complex topography. In comparison with station observational data, the downscaling processing, on whichever forcing field is used, generated more accurate surface temperature and humidity fields than the Eta Model and NARR data, although it still included marked errors, such as a negative (positive) bias toward the daily maximum (minimum) temperature and overestimated precipitation, especially in the cold season. Comparing the downscaling results forced by the NARR and R1 with both the gridded and station observational data shows that under the NARR forcing, the MM5 model produced generally better results for precipitation, temperature, and humidity than it did under the R1 forcing. These improvements were more apparent in winter and spring. During the warm season, although the use of NARR improved the precipitation estimates statistically at the regional (basin) scale, it substantially underestimated them over the southern upper Rio Grande basin, partly because the NARR forcing data exhibited warm and dry biases in the monsoon-active region during the simulation period and improper domain selection. Analyses also indicate that over mountainous regions, both the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC's) gridded (0.25°) and NARR forcings underestimate precipitation in comparison with station gauge data. © 2008 American Meteorological Society

Aberrant posterior cingulate connectivity classify first-episode schizophrenia from controls: A machine learning study

Background Posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) is a key aspect of the default mode network (DMN). Aberrant PCC functional connectivity (FC) is implicated in schizophrenia, but the potential for PCC related changes as biological classifier of schizophrenia has not yet been evaluated. Methods We conducted a data-driven approach using resting-state functional MRI data to explore differences in PCC-based region- and voxel-wise FC patterns, to distinguish between patients with first-episode schizophrenia (FES) and demographically matched healthy controls (HC). Discriminative PCC FCs were selected via false discovery rate estimation. A gradient boosting classifier was trained and validated based on 100 FES vs. 93 HC. Subsequently, classification models were tested in an independent dataset of 87 FES patients and 80 HC using resting-state data acquired on a different MRI scanner. Results Patients with FES had reduced connectivity between PCC and frontal areas, left parahippocampal regions, left anterior cingulate cortex, and right inferior parietal lobule, but hyperconnectivity with left lateral temporal regions. Predictive voxel-wise clusters were similar to region-wise selected brain areas functionally connected with PCC in relation to discriminating FES from HC subject categories. Region-wise analysis of FCs yielded a relatively high predictive level for schizophrenia, with an average accuracy of 72.28% in the independent samples, while selected voxel-wise connectivity yielded an accuracy of 68.72%. Conclusion FES exhibited a pattern of both increased and decreased PCC-based connectivity, but was related to predominant hypoconnectivity between PCC and brain areas associated with DMN, that may be a useful differential feature revealing underpinnings of neuropathophysiology for schizophrenia

Nodeless superconductivity in Ca3Ir4Sn13: evidence from quasiparticle heat transport

We report resistivity $\rho$ and thermal conductivity $\kappa$ measurements on Ca$_3$Ir$_4$Sn$_{13}$ single crystals, in which superconductivity with $T_c \approx 7$ K was claimed to coexist with ferromagnetic spin-fluctuations. Among three crystals, only one crystal shows a small hump in resistivity near 20 K, which was previously attributed to the ferromagnetic spin-fluctuations. Other two crystals show the $\rho \sim T^2$ Fermi-liquid behavior at low temperature. For both single crystals with and without the resistivity anomaly, the residual linear term $\kappa_0/T$ is negligible in zero magnetic field. In low fields, $\kappa_0(H)/T$ shows a slow field dependence. These results demonstrate that the superconducting gap of Ca$_3$Ir$_4$Sn$_{13}$ is nodeless, thus rule out nodal gap caused by ferromagnetic spin-fluctuations.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure