A surveillance sector review applied to infectious diseases at a country level

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The new International Health Regulations (IHR) require World Health Organization (WHO) member states to assess their core capacity for surveillance. Such reviews also have the potential to identify important surveillance gaps, improve the organisation of disparate surveillance systems and to focus attention on <it>upstream </it>hazards, determinants and interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a <it>surveillance sector review </it>method for evaluating all of the surveillance systems and related activities across a sector, in this case those concerned with infectious diseases in New Zealand. The first stage was a systematic description of these surveillance systems using a newly developed framework and classification system. Key informant interviews were conducted to validate the available information on the systems identified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 91 surveillance systems and related activities in the 12 coherent categories of infectious diseases examined. The majority (n = 40 or 44%) of these were disease surveillance systems. They covered all categories, particularly for more severe outcomes including those resulting in death or hospitalisations. Except for some notifiable diseases and influenza, surveillance of less severe, but important infectious diseases occurring in the community was largely absent. There were 31 systems (34%) for surveillance of <it>upstream </it>infectious disease hazards, including risk and protective factors. This area tended to have many potential gaps and lack integration, partly because such systems were operated by a range of different agencies, often outside the health sector. There were fewer surveillance systems for determinants, including population size and characteristics (n = 9), and interventions (n = 11).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It was possible to create and populate a workable framework for describing all the infectious diseases surveillance systems and related activities in a single developed country and to identify potential surveillance sector gaps. This is the first stage in a review process that will lead to identification of priorities for surveillance sector development.</p

Free Will Beliefs and Conspiracies

Although previous research has demonstrated that threats to control can lead to increased beliefs in conspiracies/conspiratorial ideation (CI), no research to date has looked at whether free will beliefs predict conspiracy ideation (CI). Thus, the present study is designed to test whether free will beliefs are related to CI. Specifically, we will test how three different sub-dimensions of free will: belief in free will, dualism, and determinism predict CI and belief in conspiratorial news headlines. Furthermore, we will also correlational test whether various socio-cognitive mechanisms related to these sub-dimensions moderate the effect of free will beliefs on CI and belief in conspiratorial news headlines

Conspiracy Intuitions following Mortality Salience

Previous research has shown that conservatism predicts increased conspiratorial ideation. Furthermore, data from polling studies show that Republicans are more like to hold conspiratorial belief systems compared to Democrats. Additionally, research from Terror Management Theory has shown that following reminders of mortality (as compared to control) people defend and reaffirm their pre-existing belief systems. Thus, the present study is designed to test whether after mortality salience (MS) Republicans are more likely to show increased conspiratorial intuitions (CI) as compared to Democrats. Furthermore, we will conduct two exploratory tests. First, exploratory analyses will check whether, following MS, those who are highly alienated (+1SD) will show increased CI compared to those who are report lower levels of alienation (-1SD). The second exploratory analysis will test whether those who score higher on the need for chaos (+1SD) will show increased CI compared to those who score lower on the need for chaos (-1SD)

The Role of Interpersonal Isolation and Conspiratorial Thinking – A Mega -Analyses.

Research on isolation and conspiratorial thinking styles has found that feelings of loneliness, existential isolation (EI), and alienation/anomie can all be important predictors of people’s tendency to engage in conspiracies (Abalakina-Paap et al., 1999; Bierwiaczonek et al., 2024; Galgali et al., 2024). Thus, in the present investigation, we will use pooled data from 10 different studies conducted by us to explore the role of three different types of interpersonal isolation (i.e., EI, loneliness, and alienation/anomie) and its unique relationship with conspiratorial ideation (CI) after controlling various demographic factors (i.e., political orientation, age, education levels, participant sex, and sample type) and interpersonal isolation related variables. These pooled studies contain data from both studies that were cross-sectional and correlational in nature and experimental. However, the manipulations in the experimental studies failed to demonstrate any effect on CI and the isolation variables included in the study did not interact with experimental manipulation to predict CI. Thus, such studies will be treated as correlational. We will use a mega-regression approach (Fleeson &amp; Gallagher, 2009) to investigate these questions. Furthermore, because not all the studies (see the accompanying Excel file for further details) included all three isolation variables, we will conduct three separate mega-regression analyses. Specifically: • The first mega-regression (MR1) will contain data from studies 1-10 and will involve looking at the unique relationship between EI and CI after controlling for the demographic variables. • The second mega-regression (MR2) will contain data from studies 1-5 and studies 7-10 and will investigate unique relationships of EI and loneliness with CI after controlling for each other and the demographic variables. • The third mega-regression (MR3) will contain data from studies 2-5, study 7, and study 10 and will investigate unique relationships of EI, loneliness, and alienation/anomie after controlling for each other and the demographic variables

Free Will Beliefs and Conspiracies

The present study aims to test whether increasing belief in free will or determinism, as compared to a control condition, leads to changes endorsement of conspiracy theories. Furthermore, we will also test the underlying processes through which such changes might occur. Specifically, we will aim to see if changes in the tendency to engage in the correspondence bias and feelings of fatalism following the manipulations of free will, could serve to explain the process through which free will affects the endorsement of conspiracy theories

System Identity Threat and Belief in Conspiracies

The present study aims to explore the relationship between system identity threat and engagement with conspiracies

Moral Foundation, Trust in Institutions and Conspiracy Ideation

The studies in this project were not pre-registered. This registration has been created to make the data and study materials open and accessible

Trust, EI and Belief in Partisan Conspiracies

Previous research finds a positive correlation between feelings of isolation (i.e., Existential Isolation and Alienation) and conspiratorial ideation (CI). However, the underlying mechanism through which such a relationship exists remains unexplored. In the present investigation, we examine whether feelings of trust explain the positive relationship between feelings of isolation and CI. The present investigation is being carried out to examine the specific version of the following generalized process: Feelings of isolation → Low Trust → Belief in Conspiracies. Specifically, the present investigation tests whether feelings of EI towards various institutions leads to increased belief in conspiracies and whether this relationship is mediated by low Institutional Trust (IT). To test this process, we will be making use of manipulating the mediator approach, where IT will be manipulated. After a filler task, participants will be randomly assigned to either a low or high IT condition. Following this, participants will complete manipulation check questions and their belief in both right-wing and left-wing conspiracies about Trump's assassination attempt will be measured