Observation of large-scale multi-agent based simulations

The computational cost of large-scale multi-agent based simulations (MABS) can be extremely important, especially if simulations have to be monitored for validation purposes. In this paper, two methods, based on self-observation and statistical survey theory, are introduced in order to optimize the computation of observations in MABS. An empirical comparison of the computational cost of these methods is performed on a toy problem

Ecohydraulic modelling of anabranching rivers

In this paper we provide the first quantitative evidence of the spatial complexity of habitat diversity across the flow regime for locally anabranching channels, and their potential increased biodiversity value in comparison to managed single-thread rivers. Ecohydraulic modelling is used to provide evidence for the potential ecological value of anabranching channels. Hydraulic habitat (biotopes) of an anabranched reach of the River Wear at Wolsingham, UK is compared with an adjacent artificially straightened single-thread reach downstream. 2D hydraulic modelling was undertaken across the flow regime. Simulated depth and velocity data were used to calculate Froude number (Fr) index; known to be closely associated with biotope type, allowing biotope maps to be produced for each flow simulation using published Fr limits. The gross morphology of the anabranched reach appears to be controlling flow hydraulics, creating a complex and diverse biotope distribution at low and intermediate flows. This contrasts markedly with the near uniform biotope pattern modelled for the heavily modified single-thread reach. As discharge increases the pattern of biotopes altered to reflect a generally higher energy system, interestingly, however, a number of low energy biotopes were activated through the anabranched reach as new sub-channels became inundated and this process is creating valuable refugia for macroinvertebrates and fish, during times of flood. In contrast, these low energy areas were not seen in the straightened single thread reach. Model results suggest that anabranched channels have a vital role to play in regulating flood energy on river systems and in creating and maintaining hydraulic habitat diversity

The impact of resource dependence of the mechanisms of life on the spatial population dynamics of an in silico microbial community

Biodiversity has a critical impact on ecosystem functionality and stability, and thus the current biodiversity crisis has motivated many studies of the mechanisms that sustain biodiversity, a notable example being non-transitive or cyclic competition. We therefore extend existing microscopic models of communities with cyclic competition by incorporating resource dependence in demographic processes, characteristics of natural systems often oversimplified or overlooked by modellers. The spatially explicit nature of our individual-based model of three interacting species results in the formation of stable spatial structures, which have significant effects on community functioning, in agreement with experimental observations of pattern formation in microbial communities. Published by AIP Publishing

A generic testing framework for agent-based simulation models

International audienceAgent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) had an increasing attention during the last decade. However, the weak validation and verification of agent-based simulation models makes ABMS hard to trust. There is no comprehensive tool set for verification and validation of agent-based simulation models, which demonstrates that inaccuracies exist and/or reveals the existing errors in the model. Moreover, on the practical side, many ABMS frameworks are in use. In this sense, we designed and developed a generic testing framework for agent-based simulation models to conduct validation and verification of models. This paper presents our testing framework in detail and demonstrates its effectiveness by showing its applicability on a realistic agent-based simulation case study

Environment Orientation : a structured simulation approach for agent-based complex systems

Complex systems are collections of independent agents interacting with each other and with their environment to produce emergent behaviour. Agent-based computer simulation is one of the main ways of studying complex systems. A naive approach to such simulation can fare poorly, due to large communication overhead, and due to the scope for deadlock between the interacting agents sharing a computational platform. Agent interaction can instead be considered entirely from the point of view of the environment(s) within which the agents interact. Structuring a simulation using such Environment Orientation leads to a simulation that reduces communication overhead, that is effectively deadlock-free, and yet still behaves in the manner required. Additionally the Environment Orientation architecture eases the development of more sophisticated large-scale simulations, with multiple kinds of complex agents, situated in and interacting with multiple kinds of environments. We describe the Environment Orientation simulation architecture. We report on a number of experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness of the Environment Orientation approach: a simple flocking system, a flocking system with multiple sensory environments, and a flocking system in an external environment

Indicated Truancy Interventions: Effects on School Attendance Among Chronic Truant Students.

BACKGROUNDTruancy is a significant problem in the U.S. and in other countries around the world. Truancy has been linked to serious immediate and far-reaching consequences for youth, families, and schools and communities, leading researchers, practitioners, and policy makers to try to understand and to address the problem. Although numerous and significant steps have been taken at the local, state, and national levels to reduce truancy, the rates of truancy have at best remained stable or at worst been on the rise, depending on the indicator utilized to assess truancy rates. The costs and impact of chronic truancy are significant, with both short- and long-term implications for the truant youth as well as for the family, school, and community. Although several narrative reviews and one meta-analysis of attendance and truancy interventions have attempted to summarize the extant research, there are a number of limitations to these reviews. It is imperative that we systematically synthesize and examine the evidence base to provide a comprehensive picture of interventions that are being utilized to intervene with chronic truants, to identify interventions that are effective and ineffective, and to identify gaps and areas in which more research needs to be conducted to better inform practice and policy.OBJECTIVESThe main objective of this systematic review was to examine the effects of interventions on school attendance to inform policy, practice, and research. The questions guiding this study were: 1) Do truancy programs with a goal of increasing student attendance for truant youth affect school attendance behaviors of elementary and secondary students with chronic attendance problems?2) Are there differences in the effects of school-based, clinic/community-based, and court-based programs?3) Are some modalities (i.e., family, group, multimodal) more effective than others in increasing student attendance? SEARCH STRATEGYA systematic and comprehensive search process was employed to locate all possible studies between 1990 and 2009, with every effort made to include both published and unpublished studies to minimize publication bias. A wide range of electronic bibliographic databases and research registers was searched, websites of relevant research centers and groups were mined for possible reports, over 200 e-mails and letters were sent to programs listed in large databases of truancy programs compiled by the National Center for School Engagement and the National Dropout Prevention Center, and contact with researchers in the field of truancy and absenteeism was attempted. In addition, we examined reference lists of all previous reviews as well as citations in research reports for potential studies.SELECTION CRITERIAStudies eligible for this review were required to meet several eligibility criteria. Studies must have utilized a randomized, quasi-experimental, or single-group pre-posttest design with the aim of evaluating the effectiveness of interventions with a stated primary goal of increasing student attendance (or decreasing absenteeism) among chronic truant students. Studies must have measured an attendance outcome and reported sufficient data to calculate an effect size. Finally, studies must have been published between 1990 and 2009 in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, or Canada. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSISA total of 28 studies, reported in 26 reports, met final eligibility criteria and were included in this review and meta-analysis. Of the studies that were included, 5 utilized a randomized design (RCT), 11 utilized a quasi-experimental design (QED), and 12 utilized a single group pre-posttest design (SGPP). All eligible studies were coded using a structured coding instrument, with 20% of studies coded by a second coder. Descriptive analysis was conducted to examine and describe data related to the characteristics of the included studies. Analysis of the mean effect size, the heterogeneity of effect sizes, and the relationship between effect size and methodological and substantive characteristics of the interventions was also conducted separately for the RCT/QED studies and the SGPP studies. The effect sizes were calculated using the standardized mean difference effect size statistic, correcting for small sample size using Hedges’ g (Hedges, 1992). Assuming a mixed effects model, the analog to the ANOVA and bivariate meta-regression frameworks were used to examine potential moderating variables related to study, participant, and intervention characteristics. RESULTSThe meta-analytic findings demonstrated a significant overall positive and moderate mean effect of interventions on attendance outcomes. The mean effect size for interventions examined in the included RCT studies was .57 and the mean effect size for the QED studies was .43. No significant differences were observed between the RCT and QED studies in the magnitude of the treatment effect (Qb= .28, p \u3e.05). The mean effect size of interventions examined using an SGPP design was .95. A moderate effect on attendance outcomes is encouraging; however, the overall mean effect size is masked by a large amount of heterogeneity, indicating significant variance in effect sizes between studies. Moderator analyses found no significant differences in mean effects between studies on any moderating variable tested. No differences were found between school-, court-, or community-based programs or between different modalities of programs. The duration of the intervention also did not demonstrate any association with effect size. Collaborative programs and multimodal interventions produced statistically similar effects on attendance as non-collaborative and single-modality programs, which runs counter to the prevailing beliefs and recommendations for best practices in truancy reduction found in the literature.Other significant findings from this study relate to methodological shortcomings, the absence of important variables as well as gaps in the evidence base. These findings include the lack of inclusion of minority students and a lack of reporting and statistical analysis of demographic variables, particularly race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status (SES). Given that race and SES have been linked to absenteeism, the absence of this data was surprising. The majority of studies also lacked adequate descriptions of the interventions, making replication of the intervention difficult, and failed to measure and report long-term outcomes. AUTHORS’ CONCLUSIONSOverall, the findings from this study suggest that chronic truant students benefit from interventions targeting attendance behaviors; thus it is important and worthwhile to intervene with chronic truant youth. Given the minimal differences in effects across program types and modalities, no one program type or modality stands out as being more effective than any other. Although no statistically significant differences in effects were found between types and modalities of interventions included in this review, there was a lack of available evidence to support the general belief (and popular “best-practice” recommendations) that collaborative and multimodal interventions are more effective than programs that are not collaborative and single modal interventions. Due to the small sample size and large heterogeneity between studies and within groups of studies, caution must be used when interpreting and applying the findings from this meta-analysis. Overall, the studies included in the review improved attendance by an average of 4.69 days, almost a full school week. However, although the interventions included in this study were, overall, found to be effective, the mean rates of absenteeism at posttest in most studies remained above acceptable levels. This finding indicates the need for additional work and research. Developing more effective interventions and policies as well as studying outcomes of interventions, particularly with vulnerable and at-risk populations, is crucial to combating absenteeism. The gaps and deficiencies identified in this study also affirm the need for increasing and strengthening the evidence base on which current policies and practices rest. Although additional outcome research is necessary, more of the same is not sufficient. Significant improvements in the quality of truancy intervention research are required and identified gaps need to be addressed. Recommendations to improve the quality and fill gaps in truancy intervention research are discussed here. In addition, given the significant and pervasive deficiencies in the extant research, a critical analysis of the practices, assumptions, and sociopolitical contexts underlying truancy intervention research seems warranted

Scheduling of home health care services based on multi-agent systems

Home Health Care (HHC) services are growing worldwide and, usually, the home care visits are manually planned, being a time and effort consuming task that leads to a non optimized solution. The use of some optimization techniques can significantly improve the quality of the scheduling solutions, but lacks the achievement of solutions that face the fast reaction to condition changes. In such stochastic and very volatile environments, the fast re-scheduling is crucial to maintain the system in operation. Taking advantage of the inherent distributed and intelligent characteristics of Multi-agent Systems (MAS), this paper introduces a methodology that combines the optimization features provided by centralized scheduling algorithms, e.g. genetic algorithms, with the responsiveness features provided by MAS solutions. The proposed approach was codified in Matlab and NetLogo and applied to a real-world HHC case study. The experimental results showed a significant improvement in the quality of scheduling solutions, as well as in the responsiveness to achieve those solutions.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises