Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of the Strategic Energy Technology Plan on the European Power Sector

The goal of this analysis is to capture the effect of increasing research, development and demonstration (RD&D) efforts for a set of low-carbon power technologies on the development of the European energy sector. The report finds that an increase in research efforts on a global level, that for the EU are in line with the RD&D investments proposed in the context of the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan, will contribute to reducing the costs of currently less mature low-carbon technologies, and therefore accelerate their market entry. Following from the lower technology investment costs, the economic rate of return of the additional SET-Plan investments in the EU would be positive, reaching around 15% for a time horizon between 2010 and 2030. The cumulative (discounted) benefit of the RD&D investments would be negative in early years before turning positive around the year 2020 and remaining so thereafter.JRC.DDG.J.2-The economics of climate change, energy and transpor

The Economic Impact of Environmentally Sustainable Transport in Germany

The economic assessment of the Environmentally Sustainable Transportation (EST) scenarios developed throughout this paper are part of Phase 3 of the overall project, which is on social and economic assessment and on devising packages of instruments that - if implemented - would result in attaining EST.  Two methods were chosen for the assessment of the scenarios: a qualitative evaluation based on a simplified cybernetic model (SCM) and a system dynamics model (SDM). In the assessment with the simplified cybernetic model, a conservative baseline has been chosen in order to start with a scenario that incorporates some pessimistic views of the industry. The aim is to show that, even in this case, an economic disaster will not occur.  The System Dynamics Model ESCOT was designed to consider the ecological and technical aspects of a transition towards sustainable transportation. It is important that ESCOT considers not only first round effects but also secondary effects, which makes it a powerful instrument for the assessment of such large ecological changes. The economic assessment of environmentally sustainable scenarios shows that the departure from car and road freight oriented transport policy is far from leading to an economic collapse. The effects concerning economic indices are rather low, even though the measures proposed in the EST-80% scenario designate distinct changes compared to today’s transport policy. The impacts on some economic indicators, however, are clearly negative. With an expansion of the time period for the transition in the EST-50% scenario we derived even more encouraging results than for EST-80%

Analysis of the use of models by the European Commission in its Impact Assessments for the period 2009 - 2014

Impact Assessments (IA)are a key element in the development of policy proposals by the European Commission (EC). They provide evidence for political decision makers on the advantages and disadvantages of possible policy options by assessing their potential impacts. This evidence should be quantified whenever possible, and hence it is of interest to examine to what extent models have been used in IAs. The purpose of this report is to understand how the EC is positioned with respect to external providers as regards modelling contributions to IAs, as well to provide an input into potential future development of the Commission's model portfolio. The results of a statistical analysis for the period 2009-2014 shows that 16 % of the published 512 IAs used models or were predominantly model-based. In terms of absolute numbers, Directorate Generals (DGs) CLIMA, ENER, ENV and MOVE account for more than half (51) of the 91 model-based IAs . Within the model-based IAs, 52% used results exclusively or partially provided by external contractors, while 48% used models run in-house by DG JRC. The Commission uses a wide range of models (91 for the IAs during 2009-2014), roughly 60% of which were used only once. The 24 most frequently-used models represent 70% of all cases in which modelling were used for an IA. Notably 11 of them account for roughly 48%, almost all being run by contractors, mostly in tandem for energy-transport-climate policy scenarios. The most frequently-used model is PRIMES, used in 28 out of 263 cases (11% of the cases), followed by 10 other models which are used exclusively or predominantly with PRIMES in the context of the energy-climate scenarios (GEM-E3, TREMOVE, CAPRI, POLES, G4M, GAINS, GLOBIOM, LUISA, PROMETHEUS and TRANSTOOLS). Frequently-used models for the economic and monetary union are the in-house models QUEST and SYMBOL. The most frequently-used models of DG JRC number about 10 which have been used in 46 cases; these are energy models (GEM-E3 and POLES), followed by environmental models (the LUISA modelling platform and LISFLOOD), the micro-economic model for financial markets SYMBOL, the transport model TRANSTOOLS and the agricultural models belonging to the iMAP platform - CAPRI and AGLINK-COSIMO.JRC.A.2-Work Programm

Technology Learning Curves for Energy Policy Support

The European Commission's Joint Research Centre and the Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) organised an expert workshop on 'Learning Curves for Policy Support' in Amsterdam on 8 March 2012. It aimed to assess the challenges in the application of the two-factor learning curve, or alternative solutions in supporting policy decision making in the framework of the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan, and explored options for improvement. The workshop gathered distinguished experts in the field of scientific research on learning curves and policy researchers from the European Commission and ECN to assess the challenges in the application of the two-factor-learning curve, or alternative solutions in supporting policy decision making, and to provide options for improvement. This paper forms the summary of outcomes from the workshop. Due to the very different nature of the One-Factor-Learning concept and the Two-Factor-Learning concept, these are discussed in separate parts. In each of these parts the context and the methodology are introduced, methodological and data challenges are described and the problems associated with the application of the concept in models is discussed.JRC.F.6-Energy systems evaluatio

Comparison of Long-term World Energy Studies

The POLES (Prospective Outlook for the Long-term Energy System) model is a global sectoral simulation model for the development of long-term energy supply and demand scenarios until 2050. The model is used to calculate global energy scenarios, such as the World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook (WETO) and the WETO-H2 update. In addition, dedicated greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios are increasingly produced to support the assessment of climate change policies and measures. For both purposes it is crucial that the baseline scenario calculated with the POLES model provides a consistent and reliable outlook. A comparison with the outcomes of global reference energy projections from other sources provides a sensible first step in "benchmarking" the model outcomes. In a second step, the sensitivity of the model results in key input parameters being analysed (but is outside the scope of this paper). The following comparison of the POLES reference scenario (WETO-H2 reference case, 2006) with scenarios produced by the International Energy Agency (IEA reference scenario, 2006), the U.S. Department of Energy (US-DoE reference case, 2006) and the World Energy Council (WEC-A2 scenario, 1998) indicates an overall high concordance among all scenarios. With regard to the most important basic input assumptions, very similar values for population trends are observed, particularly for the more recent studies from WETO, IEA and US-DoE. Assumptions regarding GDP growth are close for WETO and IEA, while the US-DoE study assumes a higher increase of GDP particularly for the decade 2020 to 2030. The projected oil price, however, differs more between the studies, with the three more recent projections (WETO, US-DoE, IEA) showing substantially higher prices than the WEC. This may be the result of these recent studies better reflecting the recent increase. The resulting projections of world energy consumption and CO2 emissions reflect the similarities and differences between the key assumptions well. Both indicators are well in line for the WETO, IEA and WEC studies, with slightly elevated values for the US-DoE study. However, this resemblance in the totals of energy consumption and CO2 emission hides more important differences in the projections for individual energy sources. With respect to the development of different fuels, projections for oil are very similar, but differ for coal and gas demand, mainly driven by differences in the fuel mix used for electricity generation. The US-DoE study projects significantly higher coal consumption throughout the scenario period until 2030 than the other studies. In the WETO study, the lower consumption of coal will be compensated mainly by the higher consumption of natural gas in the decade 2010 to 2020, and nuclear energy in the decade 2020 to 2030. As a result, the WETO study shows the highest consumption of natural gas in 2010 and 2020 (falling back to an average level in 2030) and has the most pronounced nuclear electricity production in 2030. The projections for hydro electricity and biomass are quite similar for WETO and IEA, with the latter showing slightly higher values. Although high growth rates for other renewables are assumed in all scenarios, the contribution of other renewables to overall world energy consumption remains on a low level, even in the most favourable case (WETO). In terms of renewables contribution to electricity generation, the three more recent studies are particularly well in line. In conclusion, the comparison demonstrates that the key assumptions used in WETO (here: the WETO-H2 reference case modelled with POLES) as well as the projections on total energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are well in line with those of other reliable global energy studies, with important differences occurring mainly for the future development of nuclear power.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2020: A New Normal Beyond Covid-19

This edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2020) puts its focus on analysing the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on the transport sector as a whole. The transport sector has suffered the greatest slump in mobility demand of the history during the lockdown period, while the oil price has plummeted. This report explores the impacts of transport activity trends that may persist in the future from the structural changes induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as of policy initiatives that may be adopted as enabling measures for low-carbon transport. While greenhouse gas emissions in this “New Normal” differ significantly compared to previous projections, the emissions gap towards a 2°C pathway is closed only by some 29%, thereby stressing the need of more ambitious collective action to maintaining global temperature change to well below 2°C.JRC.C.6 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Clean Energy Technology Observatory: Battery Technology in the European Union - 2024 Status Report on Technology Development, Trends, Value Chains and Markets

This report is an output of the Clean Energy Technology Observatory (CETO), and provides an evidence-based analysis of the overall battery landscape to support the EU policy making process. It is part of the series of reports on clean energy technologies needed for the delivery of the European Green Deal, and it is a continuation and extension of earlier editions of the CETO report on batteries. It addresses technology development, EU research and innovation activities, global and EU markets and market players and assesses the competitiveness of the EU battery sector and its positioning in the global battery market. Special attention is given to solid state and sodium-ion batteries. This report also contains an assessment of market developments, production, trade, patenting, and sustainability in the area of Li-ion batteries.JRC.C.1 - Battery and Hydrogen Technologie

Clean Energy Technology Observatory: Fuel Cell Technology in the European Union - 2024 Status Report on Technology Development, Trends, Value Chains and Markets

This report is an output of the Clean Energy Technology Observatory (CETO). CETO’s objective is to provide an evidence-based analysis feeding the policy making process and hence increasing the effectiveness of R&I policies for clean energy technologies and solutions. It monitors EU research and innovation activities on clean energy technologies needed for the delivery of the European Green Deal; and assesses the competitiveness of the EU clean energy sector and its positioning in the global energy market. CETO is being implemented by the Joint Research Centre for DG Research and Innovation Energy, in coordination with DG Energy.JRC.C.1 - Battery and Hydrogen Technologie

Clean Energy Technology Observatory: Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin in the European Union - 2024 Status Report on Technology Development, Trends, Value Chains and Markets

This report investigates the status and trend of Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO), except hydrogen, which are needed to cover part of the EU’s demand for renewable fuels in the coming years. Most of the conversion technologies investigated have been already demonstrated at small-scale, and the current EU legislative framework under the recast of the Renewable Energy Directive (EU) 2018/2001 (Directive EU 2023/2413) sets specific targets for their use. As first, well-established solid hydrogen supply chains are needed, together with carbon capture technologies for Carbon Capture and Use (CCU). Fuels that may be produced starting from H2 and CO2 or N2 are hydrocarbons, alcohols and ammonia. The use of RFNBO is crucial in the transition period towards the electrification for the hard-to-abate sectors and their ability to be used in the existing fuel infrastructures, so many funding programmes are today available. Moreover, EU leads the sector in terms of patents, companies and demonstration activities. Finally, the report considers the major challenges and the opportunities for a rapid market uptake of such fuels.JRC.C.2 - Energy Efficiency and Renewable