The Leeway of Shipping Containers at Different Immersion Levels

The leeway of 20-foot containers in typical distress conditions is established through field experiments in a Norwegian fjord and in open-ocean conditions off the coast of France with wind speed ranging from calm to 14 m/s. The experimental setup is described in detail and certain recommendations given for experiments on objects of this size. The results are compared with the leeway of a scaled-down container before the full set of measured leeway characteristics are compared with a semi-analytical model of immersed containers. Our results are broadly consistent with the semi-analytical model, but the model is found to be sensitive to choice of drag coefficient and makes no estimate of the cross-wind leeway of containers. We extend the results from the semi-analytical immersion model by extrapolating the observed leeway divergence and estimates of the experimental uncertainty to various realistic immersion levels. The sensitivity of these leeway estimates at different immersion levels are tested using a stochastic trajectory model. Search areas are found to be sensitive to the exact immersion levels, the choice of drag coefficient and somewhat less sensitive to the inclusion of leeway divergence. We further compare the search areas thus found with a range of trajectories estimated using the semi-analytical model with only perturbations to the immersion level. We find that the search areas calculated without estimates of crosswind leeway and its uncertainty will grossly underestimate the rate of expansion of the search areas. We recommend that stochastic trajectory models of container drift should account for these uncertainties by generating search areas for different immersion levels and with the uncertainties in crosswind and downwind leeway reported from our field experiments.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures and 5 tables; Ocean Dynamics, Special Issue on Advances in Search and Rescue at Sea (2012

Quality control in public participation assessments of water quality: the OPAL Water Survey

BACKGROUND: Public participation in scientific data collection is a rapidly expanding field. In water quality surveys, the involvement of the public, usually as trained volunteers, generally includes the identification of aquatic invertebrates to a broad taxonomic level. However, quality assurance is often not addressed and remains a key concern for the acceptance of publicly-generated water quality data. The Open Air Laboratories (OPAL) Water Survey, launched in May 2010, aimed to encourage interest and participation in water science by developing a 'low-barrier-to-entry' water quality survey. During 2010, over 3000 participant-selected lakes and ponds were surveyed making this the largest public participation lake and pond survey undertaken to date in the UK. But the OPAL approach of using untrained volunteers and largely anonymous data submission exacerbates quality control concerns. A number of approaches were used in order to address data quality issues including: sensitivity analysis to determine differences due to operator, sampling effort and duration; direct comparisons of identification between participants and experienced scientists; the use of a self-assessment identification quiz; the use of multiple participant surveys to assess data variability at single sites over short periods of time; comparison of survey techniques with other measurement variables and with other metrics generally considered more accurate. These quality control approaches were then used to screen the OPAL Water Survey data to generate a more robust dataset. RESULTS: The OPAL Water Survey results provide a regional and national assessment of water quality as well as a first national picture of water clarity (as suspended solids concentrations). Less than 10 % of lakes and ponds surveyed were ‘poor’ quality while 26.8 % were in the highest water quality band. CONCLUSIONS: It is likely that there will always be a question mark over untrained volunteer generated data simply because quality assurance is uncertain, regardless of any post hoc data analyses. Quality control at all stages, from survey design, identification tests, data submission and interpretation can all increase confidence such that useful data can be generated by public participants

Sustaining Water Resources: Environmental and Economic Impact

Water is essential to human health and economic development due to its utilization in sanitation, agriculture, and energy. Supplying water to an expanding world population requires simultaneous consideration of multiple societal sectors competing for limited resources. Water conservation, supply augmentation, distribution, and treatment of contaminants must work in concert to ensure water sustainability. Water is linked to other sectors, and the quantity and quality of water resources are changing. The efficient use of water in agriculture, the largest user of water worldwide, via drip irrigation is described as is the use of energy-intensive reverse osmosis to supplement freshwater supplies. Efforts to manage watersheds and model their responses to severe weather events are discussed along with efforts to improve the predictability of their function. The regional competition for water resources impacts both energy and water supply reliability, which requires that nations balance both for sustainable economic development. The use of water and energy in the US is described which provides a lens through which to both rethink the interrelationship of water and energy as well as evaluate technological developments. Advances in nanotechnology are highlighted as one emerging technology. These results underscore the multifaceted nature of water sustainability, its interrelationship to energy and economic development, and the need to develop, manage and regulate water systems in a concerted manner

Molecular heterogeneity in major urinary proteins of Mus musculus subspecies: potential candidates involved in speciation

When hybridisation carries a cost, natural selection is predicted to favour evolution of traits that allow assortative mating (reinforcement). Incipient speciation between the two European house mouse subspecies, Mus musculus domesticus and M.m.musculus, sharing a hybrid zone, provides an opportunity to understand evolution of assortative mating at a molecular level. Mouse urine odours allow subspecific mate discrimination, with assortative preferences evident in the hybrid zone but not in allopatry. Here we assess the potential of MUPs (major urinary proteins) as candidates for signal divergence by comparing MUP expression in urine samples from the Danish hybrid zone border (contact) and from allopatric populations. Mass spectrometric characterisation identified novel MUPs in both subspecies involving mostly new combinations of amino acid changes previously observed in M.m.domesticus. The subspecies expressed distinct MUP signatures, with most MUPs expressed by only one subspecies. Expression of at least eight MUPs showed significant subspecies divergence both in allopatry and contact zone. Another seven MUPs showed divergence in expression between the subspecies only in the contact zone, consistent with divergence by reinforcement. These proteins are candidates for the semiochemical barrier to hybridisation, providing an opportunity to characterise the nature and evolution of a putative species recognition signal

Light echoes reveal an unexpectedly cool Eta Carinae during its 19th-century Great Eruption

Eta Carinae (Eta Car) is one of the most massive binary stars in the Milky Way. It became the second-brightest star in the sky during its mid-19th century "Great Eruption," but then faded from view (with only naked-eye estimates of brightness). Its eruption is unique among known astronomical transients in that it exceeded the Eddington luminosity limit for 10 years. Because it is only 2.3 kpc away, spatially resolved studies of the nebula have constrained the ejected mass and velocity, indicating that in its 19th century eruption, Eta Car ejected more than 10 M_solar in an event that had 10% of the energy of a typical core-collapse supernova without destroying the star. Here we report the discovery of light echoes of Eta Carinae which appear to be from the 1838-1858 Great Eruption. Spectra of these light echoes show only absorption lines, which are blueshifted by -210 km/s, in good agreement with predicted expansion speeds. The light-echo spectra correlate best with those of G2-G5 supergiant spectra, which have effective temperatures of ~5000 K. In contrast to the class of extragalactic outbursts assumed to be analogs of Eta Car's Great Eruption, the effective temperature of its outburst is significantly cooler than allowed by standard opaque wind models. This indicates that other physical mechanisms like an energetic blast wave may have triggered and influenced the eruption.Comment: Accepted for publication by Nature; 4 pages, 4 figures, SI: 6 pages, 3 figures, 5 table

Regulation of neutrophil senescence by microRNAs

Neutrophils are rapidly recruited to sites of tissue injury or infection, where they protect against invading pathogens. Neutrophil functions are limited by a process of neutrophil senescence, which renders the cells unable to respond to chemoattractants, carry out respiratory burst, or degranulate. In parallel, aged neutrophils also undergo spontaneous apoptosis, which can be delayed by factors such as GMCSF. This is then followed by their subsequent removal by phagocytic cells such as macrophages, thereby preventing unwanted inflammation and tissue damage. Neutrophils translate mRNA to make new proteins that are important in maintaining functional longevity. We therefore hypothesised that neutrophil functions and lifespan might be regulated by microRNAs expressed within human neutrophils. Total RNA from highly purified neutrophils was prepared and subjected to microarray analysis using the Agilent human miRNA microarray V3. We found human neutrophils expressed a selected repertoire of 148 microRNAs and that 6 of these were significantly upregulated after a period of 4 hours in culture, at a time when the contribution of apoptosis is negligible. A list of predicted targets for these 6 microRNAs was generated from http://mirecords.biolead.org and compared to mRNA species downregulated over time, revealing 83 genes targeted by at least 2 out of the 6 regulated microRNAs. Pathway analysis of genes containing binding sites for these microRNAs identified the following pathways: chemokine and cytokine signalling, Ras pathway, and regulation of the actin cytoskeleton. Our data suggest that microRNAs may play a role in the regulation of neutrophil senescence and further suggest that manipulation of microRNAs might represent an area of future therapeutic interest for the treatment of inflammatory disease

Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Eta Carinae and the Luminous Blue Variables

We evaluate the place of Eta Carinae amongst the class of luminous blue variables (LBVs) and show that the LBV phenomenon is not restricted to extremely luminous objects like Eta Car, but extends luminosities as low as log(L/Lsun) = 5.4 - corresponding to initial masses ~25 Msun, and final masses as low as ~10-15 Msun. We present a census of S Doradus variability, and discuss basic LBV properties, their mass-loss behaviour, and whether at maximum light they form pseudo-photospheres. We argue that those objects that exhibit giant Eta Car-type eruptions are most likely related to the more common type of S Doradus variability. Alternative atmospheric models as well as sub-photospheric models for the instability are presented, but the true nature of the LBV phenomenon remains as yet elusive. We end with a discussion on the evolutionary status of LBVs - highlighting recent indications that some LBVs may be in a direct pre-supernova state, in contradiction to the standard paradigm for massive star evolution.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, Review Chapter in "Eta Carinae and the supernova imposters" (eds R. Humphreys and K. Davidson) new version submitted to Springe

Reading faces: differential lateral gaze bias in processing canine and human facial expressions in dogs and 4-year-old children

Sensitivity to the emotions of others provides clear biological advantages. However, in the case of heterospecific relationships, such as that existing between dogs and humans, there are additional challenges since some elements of the expression of emotions are species-specific. Given that faces provide important visual cues for communicating emotional state in both humans and dogs, and that processing of emotions is subject to brain lateralisation, we investigated lateral gaze bias in adult dogs when presented with pictures of expressive human and dog faces. Our analysis revealed clear differences in laterality of eye movements in dogs towards conspecific faces according to the emotional valence of the expressions. Differences were also found towards human faces, but to a lesser extent. For comparative purpose, a similar experiment was also run with 4-year-old children and it was observed that they showed differential processing of facial expressions compared to dogs, suggesting a species-dependent engagement of the right or left hemisphere in processing emotions

Asymmetric Origin for Gravitino Relic Density in the Hybrid Gravity-Gauge Mediated Supersymmetry Breaking

We propose the hybrid gravity-gauge mediated supersymmetry breaking where the gravitino mass is about several GeV. The strong constraints on supersymmetry viable parameter space from the CMS and ATLAS experiments at the LHC can be relaxed due to the heavy colored supersymmetric particles, and it is consistent with null results in the dark matter (DM) direct search experiments such as XENON100. In particular, the possible maximal flavor and CP violations from the relatively small gravity mediation may naturally account for the recent LHCb anomaly. In addition, because the gravitino mass is around the asymmetric DM mass, we propose the asymmetric origin of the gravitino relic density and solve the cosmological coincident problem on the DM and baryon densities \Omega_{\rm DM}:\Omega_{B}\approx 5:1. The gravitino relic density arises from asymmetric metastable particle (AMP) late decay. However, we show that there is no AMP candidate in the minimal supersymmetric Standard Model (SM) due to the robust gaugino/Higgsino mediated wash-out effects. Interestingly, AMP can be realized in the well motivated supersymmetric SMs with vector-like particles or continuous U(1)_R symmetry. Especially, the lightest CP-even Higgs boson mass can be lifted in the supersymmetric SMs with vector-like particles.Comment: RevTex4, 21 pages, 1 figure, minor corrections, JHEP versio