Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

Wide ranging climate changes are expected in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century, but projections of the size of these changes vary widely across current global climate models. This variation represents a large source of uncertainty in our understanding of the evolution of Arctic climate. Here we systematically quantify and assess the model uncertainty in Arctic climate changes in two CO2 doubling experiments: a multimodel ensemble (CMIP3) and an ensemble constructed using a single model (HadCM3) with multiple parameter perturbations (THC-QUMP). These two ensembles allow us to assess the contribution that both structural and parameter variations across models make to the total uncertainty and to begin to attribute sources of uncertainty in projected changes. We find that parameter uncertainty is an major source of uncertainty in certain aspects of Arctic climate. But also that uncertainties in the mean climate state in the 20th century, most notably in the northward Atlantic ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice volume, are a significant source of uncertainty for projections of future Arctic change. We suggest that better observational constraints on these quantities will lead to significant improvements in the precision of projections of future Arctic climate change

Meeting vision needs of children with special educational needs: Case studies of the impact on behaviour and academic achievement.

1.1 BackgroundChildren with identified special educational needs are at higher risk than other children of having visual needs that are not adequately met. This paper evaluates the impact of addressing the visual needs of these children on behaviour and academic achievements in a number of case studies.1.2 MethodNine children (4–11 years of age, from four classrooms), who attended a special school in a medium-sized town in the UK, took part in the case studies reported here. The children were part of the Special Education Eyecare (SEE) Project. Six of the children were selected because they had unmet visual needs at baseline and required bespoke interventions to meet these needs; the other three children were selected because their visual needs had been met prior to the study and no further adjustments were needed. Repeated direct observations were conducted to assess the impact of the intervention on the children's behaviour in the classroom. The observer was “blind” with regard to the visual needs of the participants. Parents and teachers completed the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) for each child, before and after the intervention. School files were analysed to assess effects on academic achievement.1.3 FindingsSubsequent to the implementation of bespoke visual adjustments, for example prescription of spectacles or changed seating in classroom, significant and sustained changes were observed with regard to the children's behaviour (i.e., increased engagement with peers and/or teachers and decreased off-task behaviour). Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire scores showed improvements regarding total difficulties, emotional difficulties, hyperactivity and prosocial (kind and helpful) behaviour. Due to highly variable data in school files, the effects on academic achievement were inconclusive.1.4 DiscussionThe case studies reported here explored changes in behaviour of children with identified special educational needs after their visual needs were met. Findings show a positive overall effect on the behaviour of these children.<br/

INTRAUTERINE MALNUTRITION IN RATS .1. REPERCUSSION IN BODY-WEIGHT GAIN, DURATION OF PREGNANCY AND NUMBER OF OFFSPRING

UNIV ESTADUAL PAULISTA JULIO MESQUITA FILHO,FAC MED BOTUCATU,DEPT PEDIAT,BOTUCATU,BRAZILUNIV ESTADUAL PAULISTA JULIO MESQUITA FILHO,FAC MED BOTUCATU,DEPT PEDIAT,BOTUCATU,BRAZI

INTRAUTERINE MALNUTRITION IN RATS .2. BODY-WEIGHT AND MORTALITY OF OFFSPRING

UNIV ESTADUAL PAULISTA JULIO MESQUITA FILHO,FAC MED BOTUCATU,DEPT PEDIAT,BOTUCATU,BRAZILUNIV ESTADUAL PAULISTA JULIO MESQUITA FILHO,FAC MED BOTUCATU,DEPT PEDIAT,BOTUCATU,BRAZI

MALNUTRITION IN RATS DURING DIFFERENT PERIODS OF PREGNANCY - A STUDY ON BODY AND BRAIN WEIGHTS AND LEVELS OF DNA, RNA, PROTEIN AND LIPID IN THE CEREBRAL REGION OF THEIR OFFSPRING

UNIV FED SAO PAULO,ESCOLA PAULISTA MED,DEPT PEDIAT,SAO PAULO,SP,BRAZILUNIV ESTADUAL PAULISTA JULIO MESQUITA FILHO,INST BASICO BIOL MED & AGR BOTUCATU,DEPT BIOSTAT,BOTUCATU,SP,BRAZILUNIV ESTADUAL PAULISTA JULIO MESQUITA FILHO,INST BASICO BIOL MED & AGR BOTUCATU,DEPT BIOSTAT,BOTUCATU,SP,BRAZI