The risks and rewards of covariate adjustment in randomized trials: an assessment of 12 outcomes from 8 studies

Adjustment for prognostic covariates can lead to increased power in the analysis of randomized trials. However, adjusted analyses are not often performed in practice

Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality : a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies

Background: Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men. Methods: In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes. Findings: Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980793 adults. During 9 center dot 8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19686 (25 center dot 6%) of 76965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2 center dot 10, 95% CI 1 center dot 97-2 center dot 24) and tripled risk among women (3 center dot 00, 2 center dot 71-3 center dot 33; x(2) test for heterogeneity p<0 center dot 0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2 center dot 60, 2 center dot 30-2 center dot 94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2 center dot 01, 1 center dot 85-2 center dot 19; p=0 center dot 0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5 center dot 55, 4 center dot 15-7 center dot 44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0 center dot 05% (95% CI 0 center dot 03-0 center dot 07) per year in women compared with 0 center dot 08% (0 center dot 05-0 center dot 10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1 center dot 08% (0 center dot 84-1 center dot 3 2) per year in women and 0 center dot 91% (0 center dot 77-1 center dot 05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes. Interpretation: Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained

BCG Revaccination Does Not Protect Against Leprosy in the Brazilian Amazon: A Cluster Randomised Trial

BCG is a vaccine developed and used to protect against tuberculosis, but it can also protect against leprosy. In Brazil, children receive BCG at birth, and since 1996 a trial has been conducted to find out if a second dose of BCG administered to schoolchildren gives additional protection against tuberculosis. We use this trial to find out if such vaccination protects against leprosy. The trial was conducted in the Brazilian Amazon, involving almost 100,000 children aged 7–14 years who had received neonatal BCG. Half of them received a second dose of BCG at school, and the other half did not. We followed the children for 6 years and observed that there were as many new cases of leprosy in the vaccinated children as in the unvaccinated children. Therefore, we concluded that a second dose of BCG given at school age in the Brazilian Amazon offers no additional protection against leprosy

Dealing with heterogeneity of treatment effects: is the literature up to the challenge?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Some patients will experience more or less benefit from treatment than the averages reported from clinical trials; such variation in therapeutic outcome is termed heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE). Identifying HTE is necessary to individualize treatment. The degree to which heterogeneity is sought and analyzed correctly in the general medical literature is unknown. We undertook this literature sample to track the use of HTE analyses over time, examine the appropriateness of the statistical methods used, and explore the predictors of such analyses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Articles were selected through a probability sample of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in <it>Annals of Internal Medicine</it>, <it>BMJ</it>, <it>JAMA</it>, <it>The Lancet</it>, and <it>NEJM </it>during odd numbered months of 1994, 1999, and 2004. RCTs were independently reviewed and coded by two abstractors, with adjudication by a third. Studies were classified as reporting: (1) HTE analysis, utilizing a formal test for heterogeneity or treatment-by-covariate interaction, (2) subgroup analysis only, involving no formal test for heterogeneity or interaction; or (3) neither. Chi-square tests and multiple logistic regression were used to identify variables associated with HTE reporting.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>319 studies were included. Ninety-two (29%) reported HTE analysis; another 88 (28%) reported subgroup analysis only, without examining HTE formally. Major covariates examined included individual risk factors associated with prognosis, responsiveness to treatment, or vulnerability to adverse effects of treatment (56%); gender (30%); age (29%); study site or center (29%); and race/ethnicity (7%). Journal of publication and sample size were significant independent predictors of HTE analysis (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HTE is frequently ignored or incorrectly analyzed. An iterative process of exploratory analysis followed by confirmatory HTE analysis will generate the data needed to facilitate an individualized approach to evidence-based medicine.</p

Molecular definition of group 1 innate lymphoid cells in the mouse uterus

Determining the function of uterine lymphocytes is challenging because of the rapidly changing nature of the organ in response to sex hormones and, during pregnancy, to the invading fetal trophoblast cells. Here we provide the first genome-wide transcriptome atlas of mouse uterine group 1 innate lymphoid cells (g1 ILCs) at mid-gestation. The composition of g1 ILCs fluctuates throughout reproductive life, with Eomes-veCD49a+ ILC1s dominating before puberty and specifically expanding in second pregnancies, when the expression of CXCR6, a marker of memory cells, is upregulated. Tissue-resident Eomes+CD49a+ NK cells (trNK), which resemble human uterine NK cells, are most abundant during early pregnancy, and showcase gene signatures of responsiveness to TGF-β, connections with trophoblast, epithelial, endothelial and smooth muscle cells, leucocytes, as well as extracellular matrix. Unexpectedly, trNK cells express genes involved in anaerobic glycolysis, lipid metabolism, iron transport, protein ubiquitination, and recognition of microbial molecular patterns. Conventional NK cells expand late in gestation and may engage in crosstalk with trNK cells involving IL-18 and IFN-γ. These results identify trNK cells as the cellular hub of uterine g1 ILCs at mid-gestation and mark CXCR6+ ILC1s as potential memory cells of pregnancy.This work was funded by a Wellcome Trust Investigator Award 200841/Z/16/Z, the Centre for Trophoblast Research (CTR), and the Cambridge NIHR BRC Cell Phenotyping Hub to FC, the Associazione Italiana Ricerca per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC) - Special Project 5x1000 no. 9962, AIRC IG 2017 Id.19920 and AIRC 2014 Id. 15283 to LM, and Ministero della Salute RF-2013, GR-2013-02356568 to PV. IF was funded by a CTR PhD fellowship

Efficacy of early neonatal vitamin A supplementation in reducing mortality during infancy in Ghana, India and Tanzania: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Vitamin A supplementation of 6-59 month old children is currently recommended by the World Health Organization based on evidence that it reduces mortality. There has been considerable interest in determining the benefits of neonatal vitamin A supplementation, but the results of existing trials are conflicting. A technical consultation convened by WHO pointed to the need for larger scale studies in Asia and Africa to inform global policy on the use of neonatal vitamin A supplementation. Three trials were therefore initiated in Ghana, India and Tanzania to determine if vitamin A supplementation (50,000 IU) given to neonates once orally on the day of birth or within the next two days will reduce mortality in the period from supplementation to 6 months of age compared to placebo. The trials are individually randomized, double masked, and placebo controlled. The required sample size is 40,200 in India and 32,000 each in Ghana and Tanzania. The study participants are neonates who fulfil age eligibility, whose families are likely to stay in the study area for the next 6 months, who are able to feed orally, and whose parent(s) provide informed written consent to participate in the study. Neonates randomized to the intervention group receive 50,000 IU vitamin A and the ones randomized to the control group receive placebo at the time of enrollment. Mortality and morbidity information are collected through periodic home visits by a study worker during infancy. The primary outcome of the study is mortality from supplementation to 6 months of age. The secondary outcome of the study is mortality from supplementation to 12 months of age. The three studies will be analysed independent of each other. Subgroup analysis will be carried out to determine the effect by birth weight, sex, and timing of DTP vaccine, socioeconomic groups and maternal large-dose vitamin A supplementation. The three ongoing studies are the largest studies evaluating the efficacy of vitamin A supplementation to neonates. Policy formulation will be based on the results of efficacy of the intervention from the ongoing randomized controlled trials combined with results of previous studies

Epidemiological and economic burden of metabolic syndrome and its consequences in patients with hypertension in Germany, Spain and Italy; a prevalence-based model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The presence of metabolic syndrome in patients with hypertension significantly increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and mortality. Our aim is to estimate the epidemiological and economic burden to the health service of metabolic syndrome in patients with hypertension in three European countries in 2008 and 2020.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An age, sex and risk group structured prevalence based cost of illness model was developed using the United States Adult Treatment Panel III of the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria to define metabolic syndrome. Data sources included published information and public use databases on disease prevalence, incidence of cardiovascular events, prevalence of type 2 diabetes, treatment patterns and cost of management in Germany, Spain and Italy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The prevalence of hypertension with metabolic syndrome in the general population of Germany, Spain and Italy was 36%, 11% and 10% respectively. In subjects with hypertension 61%, 22% and 21% also had metabolic syndrome. Incident cardiovascular events and attributable mortality were around two fold higher in subjects with metabolic syndrome and prevalence of type 2 diabetes was around six-fold higher. The economic burden to the health service of metabolic syndrome in patients with hypertension was been estimated at €24,427, €1,900 and €4,877 million in Germany, Spain and Italy and forecast to rise by 59%, 179% and 157% respectively by 2020. The largest components of costs included the management of prevalent type 2 diabetes and incident cardiovascular events. Mean annual costs per hypertensive patient were around three-fold higher in subjects with metabolic syndrome compared to those without and rose incrementally with the additional number of metabolic syndrome components present.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The presence of metabolic syndrome in patients with hypertension significantly inflates economic burden and costs are likely to increase in the future due to an aging population and an increase in the prevalence of components of metabolic syndrome.</p

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism

IMPORTANCE It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. EXPOSURES A panel of several established cardiovascular risk factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CHD], 25 131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS Of the 731 728 participants from the ERFC, 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421 537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk