Analysis of feedback mechanisms with unknown delay using sparse multivariate autoregressive method

This paper discusses the study of two interacting processes in which a feedback mechanism exists between the processes. The study was motivated by problems such as the circadian oscillation of gene expression where two interacting protein transcriptions form both negative and positive feedback loops with long delays to equilibrium. Traditionally, data of this type could be examined using autoregressive analysis. However, in circadian oscillation the order of an autoregressive model cannot be determined a priori. We propose a sparse multivariate autoregressive method that incorporates mixed linear effects into regression analysis, and uses a forward-backward greedy search algorithm to select nonzero entries in the regression coefficients, the number of which is constrained not to exceed a pre-specified number. A small simulation study provides preliminary evidence of the validity of the method. Besides the circadian oscillation example, an additional example of blood pressure variations using data from an intervention study is used to illustrate the method and the interpretation of the results obtained from the sparse matrix method. These applications demonstrate how sparse representation can be used for handling high dimensional variables that feature dynamic, reciprocal relationships

The Topology of Parabolic Character Varieties of Free Groups

Let G be a complex affine algebraic reductive group, and let K be a maximal compact subgroup of G. Fix elements h_1,...,h_m in K. For n greater than or equal to 0, let X (respectively, Y) be the space of equivalence classes of representations of the free group of m+n generators in G (respectively, K) such that for each i between 1 and m, the image of the i-th free generator is conjugate to h_i. These spaces are parabolic analogues of character varieties of free groups. We prove that Y is a strong deformation retraction of X. In particular, X and Y are homotopy equivalent. We also describe explicit examples relating X to relative character varieties.Comment: 16 pages, version 2 includes minor revisions and some modified proofs, accepted for publication in Geometriae Dedicat

Viral population estimation using pyrosequencing

The diversity of virus populations within single infected hosts presents a major difficulty for the natural immune response as well as for vaccine design and antiviral drug therapy. Recently developed pyrophosphate based sequencing technologies (pyrosequencing) can be used for quantifying this diversity by ultra-deep sequencing of virus samples. We present computational methods for the analysis of such sequence data and apply these techniques to pyrosequencing data obtained from HIV populations within patients harboring drug resistant virus strains. Our main result is the estimation of the population structure of the sample from the pyrosequencing reads. This inference is based on a statistical approach to error correction, followed by a combinatorial algorithm for constructing a minimal set of haplotypes that explain the data. Using this set of explaining haplotypes, we apply a statistical model to infer the frequencies of the haplotypes in the population via an EM algorithm. We demonstrate that pyrosequencing reads allow for effective population reconstruction by extensive simulations and by comparison to 165 sequences obtained directly from clonal sequencing of four independent, diverse HIV populations. Thus, pyrosequencing can be used for cost-effective estimation of the structure of virus populations, promising new insights into viral evolutionary dynamics and disease control strategies.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

Dynamics of multi-stage infections on networks

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a nonexponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multistage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to output of pairwise models for several realistic examples of infectious diseases to illustrate the role played by the number of stages in the disease dynamics. These results show that a higher number of disease stages results in faster epidemic outbreaks with a higher peak prevalence and a larger final size of the epidemic. The agreement between the pairwise and simulation models is excellent in the cases we consider

Fostering implementation of health services research findings into practice: a consolidated framework for advancing implementation science

Abstract Background Many interventions found to be effective in health services research studies fail to translate into meaningful patient care outcomes across multiple contexts. Health services researchers recognize the need to evaluate not only summative outcomes but also formative outcomes to assess the extent to which implementation is effective in a specific setting, prolongs sustainability, and promotes dissemination into other settings. Many implementation theories have been published to help promote effective implementation. However, they overlap considerably in the constructs included in individual theories, and a comparison of theories reveals that each is missing important constructs included in other theories. In addition, terminology and definitions are not consistent across theories. We describe the Consolidated Framework For Implementation Research (CFIR) that offers an overarching typology to promote implementation theory development and verification about what works where and why across multiple contexts. Methods We used a snowball sampling approach to identify published theories that were evaluated to identify constructs based on strength of conceptual or empirical support for influence on implementation, consistency in definitions, alignment with our own findings, and potential for measurement. We combined constructs across published theories that had different labels but were redundant or overlapping in definition, and we parsed apart constructs that conflated underlying concepts. Results The CFIR is composed of five major domains: intervention characteristics, outer setting, inner setting, characteristics of the individuals involved, and the process of implementation. Eight constructs were identified related to the intervention (e.g., evidence strength and quality), four constructs were identified related to outer setting (e.g., patient needs and resources), 12 constructs were identified related to inner setting (e.g., culture, leadership engagement), five constructs were identified related to individual characteristics, and eight constructs were identified related to process (e.g., plan, evaluate, and reflect). We present explicit definitions for each construct. Conclusion The CFIR provides a pragmatic structure for approaching complex, interacting, multi-level, and transient states of constructs in the real world by embracing, consolidating, and unifying key constructs from published implementation theories. It can be used to guide formative evaluations and build the implementation knowledge base across multiple studies and settings.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78272/1/1748-5908-4-50.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78272/2/1748-5908-4-50-S1.PDFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78272/3/1748-5908-4-50-S3.PDFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78272/4/1748-5908-4-50-S4.PDFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78272/5/1748-5908-4-50.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78272/6/1748-5908-4-50-S2.PDFPeer Reviewe

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Extending colonic mucosal microbiome analysis - Assessment of colonic lavage as a proxy for endoscopic colonic biopsies

This study was supported through GI Research funds and MRC Grant Ref: MR/M00533X/1 to GH.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Effects of habitat and land use on breeding season density of male Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii

Landscape-scale habitat and land-use influences on Asian Houbara Chlamydotis macqueenii (IUCN Vulnerable) remain unstudied, while estimating numbers of this cryptic, low-density, over-hunted species is challenging. In spring 2013, male houbara were recorded at 231 point counts, conducted twice, across a gradient of sheep density and shrub assemblages within 14,300 km² of the Kyzylkum Desert, Uzbekistan. Four sets of models related male abundance to: (1) vegetation structure (shrub height and substrate); (2) shrub assemblage; (3) shrub species composition (multidimensional scaling); (4) remote-sensed derived land-cover (GLOBCOVER, 4 variables). Each set also incorporated measures of landscape rugosity and sheep density. For each set, multi-model inference was applied to generalised linear mixed models of visit-specific counts that included important detectability covariates and point ID as a random effect. Vegetation structure received strongest support, followed by shrub species composition and shrub assemblage, with weakest support for the GLOBCOVER model set. Male houbara numbers were greater with lower mean shrub height, more gravel and flatter surfaces, but were unaffected by sheep density. Male density (mean 0.14 km-2, 95% CI, 0.12‒0.15) estimated by distance analysis differed substantially among shrub assemblages, being highest in vegetation dominated by Salsola rigida (0.22 [CI, 0.20‒0.25]), high in areas of S. arbuscula and Astragalus (0.14 [CI, 0.13‒0.16] and 0.15 [CI, 0.14‒0.17] respectively), lower (0.09 [CI, 0.08‒0.10]) in Artemisia and lowest (0.04 [CI, 0.04‒0.05]) in Calligonum. The study area was estimated to hold 1,824 males (CI: 1,645‒2,030). The spatial distribution of relative male houbara abundance, predicted from vegetation structure models, had the strongest correspondence with observed numbers in both model-calibration and the subsequent year’s data. We found no effect of pastoralism on male distribution but potential effects on nesting females are unknown. Density differences among shrub communities suggest extrapolation to estimate country- or range-wide population size must take account of vegetation composition

Description et évaluation d'un réseau d'épidémiosurveillance des pathologies porcines mis en place dans un district du Nord Vietnam

Background and objective: Early menarche is increasing in prevalence worldwide, prompting clinical andpublic health interest on its links with pulmonary function. We aimed to investigate the relationship betweenearly menarche and lung function in middle age.Methods: The population-based Tasmanian LongitudinalHealth Study (born 1961; n = 8583), was initiated in 1968.The 5th Decade follow-up data (mean age: 45 years)included age at menarche and complex lung function testing. The 6th Decade follow-up (age: 53 years) repeated spirometry and gas transfer factor. Multiple linear regressionand mediation analyses were performed to determine theassociation between age at menarche and adult lung function and investigate biological pathways, including the proportion mediated by adult-attained height.Results: Girls reporting an early menarche (Conclusion:Early menarche was associated withreduced adult lung function. This is the first study toinvestigate post-BD outcomes and quantify the partialrole of adult height in this association

The developmental regulator Pax6 is essential for maintenance of islet cell function in the adult mouse pancreas

The transcription factor Pax6 is a developmental regulator with a crucial role in development of the eye, brain, and olfactory system. Pax6 is also required for correct development of the endocrine pancreas and specification of hormone producing endocrine cell types. Glucagon-producing cells are almost completely lost in Pax6-null embryos, and insulin-expressing beta and somatostatin-expressing delta cells are reduced. While the developmental role of Pax6 is well-established, investigation of a further role for Pax6 in the maintenance of adult pancreatic function is normally precluded due to neonatal lethality of Pax6-null mice. Here a tamoxifen-inducible ubiquitous Cre transgene was used to inactivate Pax6 at 6 months of age in a conditional mouse model to assess the effect of losing Pax6 function in adulthood. The effect on glucose homeostasis and the expression of key islet cell markers was measured. Homozygous Pax6 deletion mice, but not controls, presented with all the symptoms of classical diabetes leading to severe weight loss requiring termination of the experiment five weeks after first tamoxifen administration. Immunohistochemical analysis of the pancreata revealed almost complete loss of Pax6 and much reduced expression of insulin, glucagon, and somatostatin. Several other markers of islet cell function were also affected. Notably, strong upregulation in the number of ghrelin-expressing endocrine cells was observed. These findings demonstrate that Pax6 is essential for adult maintenance of glucose homeostasis and function of the endocrine pancreas