Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

The Cost of Sex: Quantifying Energetic Investment in Gamete Production by Males and Females

The relative energetic investment in reproduction between the sexes forms the basis of sexual selection and life history theories in evolutionary biology. It is often assumed that males invest considerably less in gametes than females, but quantifying the energetic cost of gamete production in both sexes has remained a difficult challenge. For a broad diversity of species (invertebrates, reptiles, amphibians, fishes, birds, and mammals), we compared the cost of gamete production between the sexes in terms of the investment in gonad tissue and the rate of gamete biomass production. Investment in gonad biomass was nearly proportional to body mass in both sexes, but gamete biomass production rate was approximately two to four orders of magnitude higher in females. In both males and females, gamete biomass production rate increased with organism mass as a power law, much like individual metabolic rate. This suggests that whole-organism energetics may act as a primary constraint on gamete production among species. Residual variation in sperm production rate was positively correlated with relative testes size. Together, these results suggest that understanding the heterogeneity in rates of gamete production among species requires joint consideration of the effects of gonad mass and metabolism

Stressed but Stable: Canopy Loss Decreased Species Synchrony and Metabolic Variability in an Intertidal Hard-Bottom Community

The temporal stability of aggregate community properties depends on the dynamics of the component species. Since species growth can compensate for the decline of other species, synchronous species dynamics can maintain stability (i.e. invariability) in aggregate properties such as community abundance and metabolism. In field experiments we tested the separate and interactive effects of two stressors associated with storminess–loss of a canopy-forming species and mechanical disturbances–on species synchrony and community respiration of intertidal hard-bottom communities on Helgoland Island, NE Atlantic. Treatments consisted of regular removal of the canopy-forming seaweed Fucus serratus and a mechanical disturbance applied once at the onset of the experiment in March 2006. The level of synchrony in species abundances was assessed from estimates of species percentage cover every three months until September 2007. Experiments at two sites consistently showed that canopy loss significantly reduced species synchrony. Mechanical disturbance had neither separate nor interactive effects on species synchrony. Accordingly, in situ measurements of CO2-fluxes showed that canopy loss, but not mechanical disturbances, significantly reduced net primary productivity and temporal variation in community respiration during emersion periods. Our results support the idea that compensatory dynamics may stabilise aggregate properties. They further suggest that the ecological consequences of the loss of a single structurally important species may be stronger than those derived from smaller-scale mechanical disturbances in natural ecosystems

Impact of Carnivory on Human Development and Evolution Revealed by a New Unifying Model of Weaning in Mammals

Our large brain, long life span and high fertility are key elements of human evolutionary success and are often thought to have evolved in interplay with tool use, carnivory and hunting. However, the specific impact of carnivory on human evolution, life history and development remains controversial. Here we show in quantitative terms that dietary profile is a key factor influencing time to weaning across a wide taxonomic range of mammals, including humans. In a model encompassing a total of 67 species and genera from 12 mammalian orders, adult brain mass and two dichotomous variables reflecting species differences regarding limb biomechanics and dietary profile, accounted for 75.5%, 10.3% and 3.4% of variance in time to weaning, respectively, together capturing 89.2% of total variance. Crucially, carnivory predicted the time point of early weaning in humans with remarkable precision, yielding a prediction error of less than 5% with a sample of forty-six human natural fertility societies as reference. Hence, carnivory appears to provide both a necessary and sufficient explanation as to why humans wean so much earlier than the great apes. While early weaning is regarded as essentially differentiating the genus Homo from the great apes, its timing seems to be determined by the same limited set of factors in humans as in mammals in general, despite some 90 million years of evolution. Our analysis emphasizes the high degree of similarity of relative time scales in mammalian development and life history across 67 genera from 12 mammalian orders and shows that the impact of carnivory on time to weaning in humans is quantifiable, and critical. Since early weaning yields shorter interbirth intervals and higher rates of reproduction, with profound effects on population dynamics, our findings highlight the emergence of carnivory as a process fundamentally determining human evolution

Spontaneous Abortion and Preterm Labor and Delivery in Nonhuman Primates: Evidence from a Captive Colony of Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

Preterm birth is a leading cause of perinatal mortality, yet the evolutionary history of this obstetrical syndrome is largely unknown in nonhuman primate species.We examined the length of gestation during pregnancies that occurred in a captive chimpanzee colony by inspecting veterinary and behavioral records spanning a total of thirty years. Upon examination of these records we were able to confidently estimate gestation length for 93 of the 97 (96%) pregnancies recorded at the colony. In total, 78 singleton gestations resulted in live birth, and from these pregnancies we estimated the mean gestation length of normal chimpanzee pregnancies to be 228 days, a finding consistent with other published reports. We also calculated that the range of gestation in normal chimpanzee pregnancies is approximately forty days. Of the remaining fifteen pregnancies, only one of the offspring survived, suggesting viability for chimpanzees requires a gestation of approximately 200 days. These fifteen pregnancies constitute spontaneous abortions and preterm deliveries, for which the upper gestational age limit was defined as 2 SD from the mean length of gestation (208 days).The present study documents that preterm birth occurred within our study population of captive chimpanzees. As in humans, pregnancy loss is not uncommon in chimpanzees, In addition, our findings indicate that both humans and chimpanzees show a similar range of normal variation in gestation length, suggesting this was the case at the time of their last common ancestor (LCA). Nevertheless, our data suggest that whereas chimpanzees' normal gestation length is ∼20-30 days after reaching viability, humans' normal gestation length is approximately 50 days beyond the estimated date of viability without medical intervention. Future research using a comparative evolutionary framework should help to clarify the extent to which mechanisms at work in normal and preterm parturition are shared in these species

Plio-Pleistocene climatic change had a major impact on the assembly and disassembly processes of Iberian rodent communities

Comprehension of changes in community composition through multiple spatio-temporal scales is a prime challenge in ecology and palaeobiology. However, assembly, structuring and disassembly of biotic metacommunities in deep-time is insufficiently known. To address this, we used the extensively sampled Iberian Plio-Pleistocene fossil record of rodent faunas as our model system to explore how global climatic events may alter metacommunity structure. Through factor analysis, we found five sets of genera, called faunal components, which co-vary in proportional diversity over time. These faunal components had different spatio-temporal distributions throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, resulting in non-random changes in species assemblages, particularly in response to the development of the Pleistocene glaciations. Three successive metacommunities with distinctive taxonomic structures were identified as a consequence of the differential responses of their members to global climatic change: (1) Ruscinian subtropical faunas (5.3–3.4 Ma) dominated by a faunal component that can be considered as a Miocene legacy; (2) transition faunas during the Villafranchian–Biharian (3.4–0.8 Ma) with a mixture of different faunal components; and (3) final dominance of the temperate Toringian faunas (0.8–0.01 Ma) that would lead to the modern Iberian assemblage. The influence of the cooling global temperature drove the reorganisation of these rodent metacommunities. Selective extinction processes due to this large-scale environmental disturbance progressively eliminated the subtropical specialist species from the early Pliocene metacommunity. This disassembly process was accompanied by the organisation of a diversified metacommunity with an increased importance of biome generalist species, and finally followed by the assembly during the middle–late Pleistocene of a new set of species specialised in the novel environments developed as a consequence of the glaciations

BioTIME 2.0: Expanding and Improving a Database of Biodiversity Time Series

Motivation Here, we make available a second version of the BioTIME database, which compiles records of abundance estimates for species in sample events of ecological assemblages through time. The updated version expands version 1.0 of the database by doubling the number of studies and includes substantial additional curation to the taxonomic accuracy of the records, as well as the metadata. Moreover, we now provide an R package (BioTIMEr) to facilitate use of the database. Main Types of Variables Included The database is composed of one main data table containing the abundance records and 11 metadata tables. The data are organised in a hierarchy of scales where 11,989,233 records are nested in 1,603,067 sample events, from 553,253 sampling locations, which are nested in 708 studies. A study is defined as a sampling methodology applied to an assemblage for a minimum of 2 years. Spatial Location and Grain Sampling locations in BioTIME are distributed across the planet, including marine, terrestrial and freshwater realms. Spatial grain size and extent vary across studies depending on sampling methodology. We recommend gridding of sampling locations into areas of consistent size. Time Period and Grain The earliest time series in BioTIME start in 1874, and the most recent records are from 2023. Temporal grain and duration vary across studies. We recommend doing sample-level rarefaction to ensure consistent sampling effort through time before calculating any diversity metric. Major Taxa and Level of Measurement The database includes any eukaryotic taxa, with a combined total of 56,400 taxa. Software Format csv and. SQL

Forecasting rodent population dynamics and community transitions with dynamic nonlinear models

Ecological communities are dynamic. These dynamics are influenced by many sources of variation, making it difficult to understand or predict future change. Biotic interactions, and other sources of multi-species dependence, are major contributors. But ecological prediction overwhelmingly focuses on models that treat individual species in isolation. Here, we model the relative importance of nonlinear environmental responses and multi-species temporal dependencies for a community of semi-arid rodents. We use a hierarchical, Dynamic Generalized Additive Model (DGAM) to analyze monthly capture time series for nine rodents across a 25-year period. A vector autoregression to model unobserved trends allowed us to ask targeted questions about population dynamics. We find that multi-species dependencies are important for capturing unmeasured drivers of community change. Variation in captures for some species are expected to have delayed, often nonlinear effects on captures for others. These complexities are useful for inference but also for prediction. Models that captured multi-species dependence gave better near-term forecasts of community change than models that ignored it. We also quantify nonlinear effects of temperature change and positive effects of vegetation greenness on captures for nearly all species. Models that describe biological complexity, both through nonlinear covariate functions and multi-species dependence, are useful to ask targeted questions about population dynamics and drivers of change.</jats:p

Integrating community assembly and biodiversity to better understand ecosystem function: the Community Assembly and the Functioning of Ecosystems (CAFE) approach.

The research of a generation of ecologists was catalysed by the recognition that the number and identity of species in communities influences the functioning of ecosystems. The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) is most often examined by controlling species richness and randomising community composition. In natural systems, biodiversity changes are often part of a bigger community assembly dynamic. Therefore, focusing on community assembly and the functioning of ecosystems (CAFE), by integrating both species richness and composition through species gains, losses and changes in abundance, will better reveal how community changes affect ecosystem function. We synthesise the BEF and CAFE perspectives using an ecological application of the Price equation, which partitions the contributions of richness and composition to function. Using empirical examples, we show how the CAFE approach reveals important contributions of composition to function. These examples show how changes in species richness and composition driven by environmental perturbations can work in concert or antagonistically to influence ecosystem function. Considering how communities change in an integrative fashion, rather than focusing on one axis of community structure at a time, will improve our ability to anticipate and predict changes in ecosystem function

Size-Energy Relationships in Ecological Communities

Hypotheses that relate body size to energy use are of particular interest in community ecology and macroecology because of their potential to facilitate quantitative predictions about species interactions and to clarify complex ecological patterns. One prominent size-energy hypothesis, the energetic equivalence hypothesis, proposes that energy use from shared, limiting resources by populations or size classes of foragers will be independent of body size. Alternative hypotheses propose that energy use will increase with body size, decrease with body size, or peak at an intermediate body size. Despite extensive study, however, size-energy hypotheses remain controversial, due to a lack of directly-measured data on energy use, a tendency to confound distinct scaling relationships, and insufficient attention to the ecological contexts in which predicted relationships are likely to occur. Our goal, therefore, was to directly evaluate size-energy hypotheses while clarifying how results would differ with alternate methods and assumptions. We comprehensively tested size-energy hypotheses in a vertebrate frugivore guild in a tropical forest in Madagascar. Our test of size-energy hypotheses, which is the first to examine energy intake directly, was consistent with the energetic equivalence hypothesis. This finding corresponds with predictions of metabolic theory and models of energy distribution in ecological communities, which imply that body size does not confer an advantage in competition for energy among populations or size classes of foragers. This result was robust to different assumptions about energy regulation. Our results from direct energy measurement, however, contrasted with those obtained with conventional methods of indirect inference from size-density relationships, suggesting that size-density relationships do not provide an appropriate proxy for size-energy relationships as has commonly been assumed. Our research also provides insights into mechanisms underlying local size-energy relationships and has important implications for predicting species interactions and for understanding the structure and dynamics of ecological communities