Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

A Push-Pull System to Reduce House Entry of Malaria Mosquitoes.

Mosquitoes are the dominant vectors of pathogens that cause infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue, yellow fever and filariasis. Current vector control strategies often rely on the use of pyrethroids against which mosquitoes are increasingly developing resistance. Here, a push-pull system is presented, that operates by the simultaneous use of repellent and attractive volatile odorants. Experiments were carried out in a semi-field set-up: a traditional house which was constructed inside a screenhouse. The release of different repellent compounds, para-menthane-3,8-diol (PMD), catnip oil e.o. and delta-undecalactone, from the four corners of the house resulted in significant reductions of 45% to 81.5% in house entry of host-seeking malaria mosquitoes. The highest reductions in house entry (up to 95.5%), were achieved by simultaneously repelling mosquitoes from the house (push) and removing them from the experimental set-up using attractant-baited traps (pull). The outcome of this study suggests that a push-pull system based on attractive and repellent volatiles may successfully be employed to target mosquito vectors of human disease. Reductions in house entry of malaria vectors, of the magnitude that was achieved in these experiments, would likely affect malaria transmission. The repellents used are non-toxic and can be used safely in a human environment. Delta-undecalactone is a novel repellent that showed higher effectiveness than the established repellent PMD. These results encourage further development of the system for practical implementation in the field

Boost Camp’, a universal school-based transdiagnostic prevention program targeting adolescent emotion regulation; evaluating the effectiveness by a clustered RCT : a protocol paper

Abstract Background The transition from childhood into adolescence can be considered as a critical developmental period. Moreover, adolescence is associated with a decreased use of adaptive emotion regulation strategies and an increased use of maladaptive emotion regulation strategies increasing the risk of emotional problems. Targeting emotion regulation is therefore seen as an innovative prevention approach. The present study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Boost camp, an innovative school-based prevention program targeting ER, on adolescents’ emotion regulation skills and emotional wellbeing. Also secondary outcomes and possible moderators will be included. Methods The aim is to reach 300 adolescents (16 class groups, 6 schools) in their first year of high school. A clustered Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) with two conditions, intervention (n = 150) and control (n = 150), will be set up. Adolescents in the intervention condition will receive 14 lessons over the course of 2 days, followed by Booster sessions, and will be compared with adolescents in a non-intervention control group. The outcomes will be measured by self-report questionnaires at baseline, immediately after Boost camp, and at three and 6 months follow-up. Discussion Data-collection is planned to be completed in May 2018. Data-analyses will be finished the end of 2018. The presented paper describes the Boost camp program and the clustered RCT design to evaluate its effectiveness. It is expected that Boost camp will have beneficial effects. If found effective, Boost camp will have the potential to increase adolescent’s ER and well-being, and reduce the risk to become adults in need. The trials is registered on the 13th of June 2017 in ISRCTN registry [ISRCTN68235634]

Improvement of a synthetic lure for Anopheles gambiae using compounds produced by human skin microbiota

Background - Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto is considered to be highly anthropophilic and volatiles of human origin provide essential cues during its host-seeking behaviour. A synthetic blend of three human-derived volatiles, ammonia, lactic acid and tetradecanoic acid, attracts A. gambiae. In addition, volatiles produced by human skin bacteria are attractive to this mosquito species. The purpose of the current study was to test the effect of ten compounds present in the headspace of human bacteria on the host-seeking process of A. gambiae. The effect of each of the ten compounds on the attractiveness of a basic blend of ammonia, lactic and tetradecanoic acid to A. gambiae was examined. Methods- The host-seeking response of A. gambiae was evaluated in a laboratory set-up using a dual-port olfactometer and in a semi-field facility in Kenya using MM-X traps. Odorants were released from LDPE sachets and placed inside the olfactometer as well as in the MM-X traps. Carbon dioxide was added in the semi-field experiments, provided from pressurized cylinders or fermenting yeast. Results - The olfactometer and semi-field set-up allowed for high-throughput testing of the compounds in blends and in multiple concentrations. Compounds with an attractive or inhibitory effect were identified in both bioassays. 3-Methyl-1-butanol was the best attractant in both set-ups and increased the attractiveness of the basic blend up to three times. 2-Phenylethanol reduced the attractiveness of the basic blend in both bioassays by more than 50%. Conclusions - Identification of volatiles released by human skin bacteria led to the discovery of compounds that have an impact on the host-seeking behaviour of A. gambiae. 3-Methyl-1-butanol may be used to increase mosquito trap catches, whereas 2-phenylethanol has potential as a spatial repellent. These two compounds could be applied in push-pull strategies to reduce mosquito numbers in malaria endemic areas

Utilization of health services in relation to mental health problems in adolescents: A population based survey

Abstract Background Only a minority of adolescents reporting symptoms above case-levels on screenings for mental health seeks and receives help from specialist health services. The objective of this study was to a) examine help-seeking for symptoms of anxiety and depression in relation to symptom load dimensionally, b) identify the level of specialization in mental health among service-providers, and c) identify associations between mental health problems and contact with different types of health services. Methods This cross-sectional school-based study (response-rate 88%, n = 11154) is based on Norwegian health surveys among 15 and 16 year olds. Results We found a dose-response association between symptom-load and help seeking. Only 34% of individuals with mental symptom-load above 99th percentile reported help-seeking in the last 12 months. Forty percent of help seekers were in contact with specialists (psychiatrists or psychologists), the remaining were mainly in contact with GPs. Mental health problems increased help seeking to all twelve service providers examined. Conclusion It might not be reasonable to argue that all adolescents with case-level mental health problems are in need of treatment. However, concerning the 99th percentile, claiming treatment need is less controversial. Even in the Norwegian context where mental health services are relatively available and free of charge, help-seeking in individuals with the highest symptom-loads is still low. Most help seekers achieved contact with health care providers, half of them at a non specialized level. Our results suggest that adolescents' recognition of mental health problems or intention to seek help for these are the major "filters" restricting treatment.</p

Temperament and parental child-rearing style: unique contributions to clinical anxiety disorders in childhood

Both temperament and parental child-rearing style are found to be associated with childhood anxiety disorders in population studies. This study investigates the contribution of not only temperament but also parental child-rearing to clinical childhood anxiety disorders. It also investigates whether the contribution of temperament is moderated by child-rearing style, as is suggested by some studies in the general population. Fifty children were included (25 with anxiety disorders and 25 non-clinical controls). Child-rearing and the child’s temperament were assessed by means of parental questionnaire (Child Rearing Practices Report (CRPR) (Block in The Child-Rearing Practices Report. Institute of Human Development. University of California, Berkely, 1965; The Child-Rearing Practices Report (CRPR): a set of Q items for the description of parental socialisation attitudes and values. Unpublished manuscript. Institute of Human Development. University of California, Berkely, 1981), EAS Temperament Survey for Children (Boer and Westenberg in J Pers Assess 62:537–551, 1994; Buss and Plomin in Temperament: early developing personality traits. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc, Hillsdale, 1984s). Analysis of variance showed that anxiety-disordered children scored significantly higher on the temperamental characteristics emotionality and shyness than non-clinical control children. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses showed that temperament (emotionality and shyness) and child-rearing style (more parental negative affect, and less encouraging independence of the child) both accounted for a unique proportion of the variance of anxiety disorders. Preliminary results suggest that child-rearing style did not moderate the association between children’s temperament and childhood anxiety disorders. The limited sample size might have been underpowered to assess this interaction

Pathways to child and adolescent psychiatric clinics: a multilevel study of the significance of ethnicity and neighbourhood social characteristics on source of referral

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the Swedish society, as in many other societies, many children and adolescents with mental health problems do not receive the help they need. As the Swedish society becomes increasingly multicultural, and as ethnic and economic residential segregation become more pronounced, this study utilises ethnicity and neighbourhood context to examine referral pathways to child and adolescent psychiatric (CAP) clinics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The analysis examines four different sources of referrals: family referrals, social/legal agency referrals, school referrals and health/mental health referrals. The referrals of 2054 children aged 11-19 from the Stockholm Child-Psychiatric Database were studied using multilevel logistic regression analyses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results indicate that ethnicity played an important role in how children and adolescents were referred to CAP-clinics. Family referrals were more common among children and adolescents with a Swedish background than among those with an immigrant background. Referrals by social/legal agencies were more common among children and adolescents with African and Asian backgrounds. Children with Asian or South American backgrounds were more likely to have been referred by schools or by the health/mental health care sector. A significant neighbourhood effect was found in relation to family referrals. Children and adolescents from neighbourhoods with low levels of socioeconomic deprivation were more likely to be referred to CAP-clinics by their families in comparison to children from other neighbourhoods. Such differences were not found in relation in relation to the other sources of referral.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This article reports findings that can be an important first step toward increasing knowledge on reasons behind differential referral rates and uptake of psychiatric care in an ethnically diverse Swedish sample. These findings have implications for the design and evaluation of community mental health outreach programs and should be considered when developing measures and strategies intended to reach and help children with mental health problems. This might involve providing information about the availability and accessibility of health care for children and adolescents with mental health problems to families in certain neighbourhoods and with different ethnic backgrounds.</p

Maternal depressive symptoms, and not anxiety symptoms, are associated with positive mother–child reporting discrepancies of internalizing problems in children: a report on the TRAILS Study

Maternal internalizing problems affect reporting of child’s problem behavior. This study addresses the relative effects of maternal depressive symptoms versus anxiety symptoms and the association with differential reporting of mother and child on child’s internalizing problems. The study sample comprised a cohort of 1,986 10- to 12-year-old children and their mothers from the Dutch general population in a cross sectional setup. Children’s internalizing problems were assessed with the DSM-IV anxiety and affective problem scales of the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and the Youth Self-Report (YSR). Current maternal internalizing problems were assessed with the depressive and anxiety symptom scales of the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS), while the TRAILS Family History Interview (FHI) measured lifetime maternal depression and anxiety. Results show that current and lifetime maternal depressive symptoms were associated with positive mother–child reporting discrepancies (i.e. mothers reporting more problems than their child). Considering the small amount of variance explained, we conclude that maternal depressive symptoms do not bias maternal reporting on child’s internalizing problems to a serious degree. Studies concerning long term consequences of mother–child reporting discrepancies on child’s internalizing problems are few, but show a risk for adverse outcome. More prognostic research is needed

Statin Use and the Presence of Microalbuminuria. Results from the ERICABEL Trial: A Non-Interventional Epidemiological Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Microalbuminuria (MAU) is considered as a predictor or marker of cardiovascular and renal events. Statins are widely prescribed to reduce cardiovascular risk and to slow down progression of kidney disease. But statins may also generate tubular MAU. The current observational study evaluated the impact of statin use on the interpretation of MAU as a predictor or marker of cardiovascular or renal disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used cross-sectional data of ERICABEL, a cohort with 1,076 hypertensive patients. MAU was defined as albuminuria ≥20 mg/l. A propensity score was created to correct for "bias by indication" to receive a statin. As expected, subjects using statins vs. no statins had more cardiovascular risk factors, pointing to bias by indication. Statin users were more likely to have MAU (OR: 2.01, 95%CI: 1.34-3.01). The association between statin use and MAU remained significant after adjusting for the propensity to receive a statin based on cardiovascular risk factors (OR: 1.82, 95%CI: 1.14-2.91). Next to statin use, only diabetes (OR: 1.92, 95%CI: 1.00-3.66) and smoking (OR: 1.49, 95%CI: 0.99-2.26) were associated with MAU. CONCLUSIONS: Use of statins is independently associated with MAU, even after adjusting for bias by indication to receive a statin. In the hypothesis that this MAU is of tubular origin, statin use can result in incorrect labeling of subjects as having a predictor or marker of cardiovascular or renal risk. In addition, statin use affected the association of established cardiovascular risk factors with MAU, blurring the interpretation of multivariable analyses

The INeS study: prevention of multiple pregnancies: a randomised controlled trial comparing IUI COH versus IVF e SET versus MNC IVF in couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility

BACKGROUND Multiple pregnancies are high risk pregnancies with higher chances of maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity. In the past decades the number of multiple pregnancies has increased. This trend is partly due to the fact that women start family planning at an increased age, but also due to the increased use of ART. Couples with unexplained or mild male subfertility generally receive intrauterine insemination IUI with controlled hormonal stimulation (IUI COH). The cumulative pregnancy rate is 40%, with a 10% multiple pregnancy rate. This study aims to reveal whether alternative treatments such as IVF elective Single Embryo Transfer (IVF e SET) or Modified Natural Cycle IVF (MNC IVF) can reduce the number of multiple pregnancy rates, but uphold similar pregnancy rates as IUI COH in couples with mild male or unexplained subfertility. Secondly, the aim is to perform a cost effective analyses and assess treatment preference of these couples. METHODS/DESIGN We plan a multicentre randomised controlled clinical trial in the Netherlands comparing six cycles of intra-uterine insemination with controlled ovarian hyperstimulation or six cycles of Modified Natural Cycle (MNC) IVF or three cycles with IVF-elective Single Embryo Transfer (eSET) plus cryo-cycles within a time frame of 12 months. Couples with unexplained subfertility or mild male subfertility and a poor prognosis for treatment independent pregnancy will be included. Women with anovulatory cycles, severe endometriosis, double sided tubal pathology or serious endocrine illness will be excluded. Our primary outcome is the birth of a healthy singleton. Secondary outcomes are multiple pregnancy, treatment costs, and patient experiences in each treatment arm. The analysis will be performed according tot the intention to treat principle. We will test for non-inferiority of the three arms with respect to live birth. As we accept a 12.5% loss in pregnancy rate in one of the two IVF arms to prevent multiple pregnancies, we need 200 couples per arm (600 couples in total). DISCUSSION Determining the safest and most cost-effective treatment will ensure optimal chances of pregnancy for subfertile couples with substantially diminished perinatal and maternal complications. Should patients find the most cost-effective treatment acceptable or even preferable, this could imply the need for a world wide shift in the primary treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN 52843371Alexandra J Bensdorp, Els Slappendel, Carolien Koks, Jur Oosterhuis, Annemieke Hoek, Peter Hompes, Frank Broekmans, Harold Verhoeve, Jan Peter de Bruin, Janne Meije van Weert, Maaike Traas, Jacques Maas, Nicole Beckers, Sjoerd Repping, Ben W Mol, Fulco van der Veen and Madelon van Wel