Causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators.

In diverse fields of empirical research-including many in the biological sciences-attempts are made to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome into its effects via a number of different pathways. For example, we may wish to separate the effect of heavy alcohol consumption on systolic blood pressure (SBP) into effects via body mass index (BMI), via gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and via other pathways. Much progress has been made, mainly due to contributions from the field of causal inference, in understanding the precise nature of statistical estimands that capture such intuitive effects, the assumptions under which they can be identified, and statistical methods for doing so. These contributions have focused almost entirely on settings with a single mediator, or a set of mediators considered en bloc; in many applications, however, researchers attempt a much more ambitious decomposition into numerous path-specific effects through many mediators. In this article, we give counterfactual definitions of such path-specific estimands in settings with multiple mediators, when earlier mediators may affect later ones, showing that there are many ways in which decomposition can be done. We discuss the strong assumptions under which the effects are identified, suggesting a sensitivity analysis approach when a particular subset of the assumptions cannot be justified. These ideas are illustrated using data on alcohol consumption, SBP, BMI, and GGT from the Izhevsk Family Study. We aim to bridge the gap from "single mediator theory" to "multiple mediator practice," highlighting the ambitious nature of this endeavor and giving practical suggestions on how to proceed

Spontaneous and deliberate future thinking: A dual process account

© 2019 Springer Nature.This is the final published version of an article published in Psychological Research, licensed under a Creative Commons Attri-bution 4.0 International License. Available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00426-019-01262-7.In this article, we address an apparent paradox in the literature on mental time travel and mind-wandering: How is it possible that future thinking is both constructive, yet often experienced as occurring spontaneously? We identify and describe two ‘routes’ whereby episodic future thoughts are brought to consciousness, with each of the ‘routes’ being associated with separable cognitive processes and functions. Voluntary future thinking relies on controlled, deliberate and slow cognitive processing. The other, termed involuntary or spontaneous future thinking, relies on automatic processes that allows ‘fully-fledged’ episodic future thoughts to freely come to mind, often triggered by internal or external cues. To unravel the paradox, we propose that the majority of spontaneous future thoughts are ‘pre-made’ (i.e., each spontaneous future thought is a re-iteration of a previously constructed future event), and therefore based on simple, well-understood, memory processes. We also propose that the pre-made hypothesis explains why spontaneous future thoughts occur rapidly, are similar to involuntary memories, and predominantly about upcoming tasks and goals. We also raise the possibility that spontaneous future thinking is the default mode of imagining the future. This dual process approach complements and extends standard theoretical approaches that emphasise constructive simulation, and outlines novel opportunities for researchers examining voluntary and spontaneous forms of future thinking.Peer reviewe

Formation of Super-Earths

Super-Earths are the most abundant planets known to date and are characterized by having sizes between that of Earth and Neptune, typical orbital periods of less than 100 days and gaseous envelopes that are often massive enough to significantly contribute to the planet's overall radius. Furthermore, super-Earths regularly appear in tightly-packed multiple-planet systems, but resonant configurations in such systems are rare. This chapters summarizes current super-Earth formation theories. It starts from the formation of rocky cores and subsequent accretion of gaseous envelopes. We follow the thermal evolution of newly formed super-Earths and discuss their atmospheric mass loss due to disk dispersal, photoevaporation, core-cooling and collisions. We conclude with a comparison of observations and theoretical predictions, highlighting that even super-Earths that appear as barren rocky cores today likely formed with primordial hydrogen and helium envelopes and discuss some paths forward for the future.Comment: Invited review accepted for publication in the 'Handbook of Exoplanets,' Planet Formation section, Springer Reference Works, Juan Antonio Belmonte and Hans Deeg, Ed

Diurnal preference and sleep quality: same genes? A study of young adult twins

The aims of this study were to examine the genetic and environmental influences on diurnal preference and sleep quality, the association between these phenotypes, the genetic and environmental influences on this association, and the magnitude of overlap between these influences. Using a twin design, data on diurnal preference (measured by the Morningness-Eveningness Questionnaire) and sleep quality (measured by the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index) were collected from 420 monozygotic twins, 773 dizygotic twins, and 329 siblings (mode age = 20 yrs, range = 18–27 yrs) from a population-based twin registry across the UK. Univariate analyses indicated that dominance genetic influence accounted for 52% and non-shared environment 48% of variance in diurnal preference. For sleep quality, additive genetic influence explained 43% and non-shared environment 57% of the variance. The bivariate analysis indicated a significant association between greater eveningness preference and poorer sleep quality (r = .27). There was substantial overlap in the additive genetic influences on both phenotypes (rA = .57), and overlap in the dominance genetic influences common to both phenotypes was almost absolute (rD = .99). Overlap in non-shared environment was much smaller (rE = .02). Additive genetic influence accounted for 2% of the association, dominance genetic influence accounted for 94%, and non-shared environmental influences accounted for the remaining 4%. The substantial overlap in genetic influence between these phenotypes indicates that similar genes are important for diurnal preference and sleep quality. Therefore, those genes already known to influence one phenotype may be possible candidates to explore with regards to the other phenotype

In Vivo Time- Resolved Microtomography Reveals the Mechanics of the Blowfly Flight Motor

Dipteran flies are amongst the smallest and most agile of flying animals. Their wings are driven indirectly by large power muscles, which cause cyclical deformations of the thorax that are amplified through the intricate wing hinge. Asymmetric flight manoeuvres are controlled by 13 pairs of steering muscles acting directly on the wing articulations. Collectively the steering muscles account for <3% of total flight muscle mass, raising the question of how they can modulate the vastly greater output of the power muscles during manoeuvres. Here we present the results of a synchrotron-based study performing micrometre-resolution, time-resolved microtomography on the 145 Hz wingbeat of blowflies. These data represent the first four-dimensional visualizations of an organism's internal movements on sub-millisecond and micrometre scales. This technique allows us to visualize and measure the three-dimensional movements of five of the largest steering muscles, and to place these in the context of the deforming thoracic mechanism that the muscles actuate. Our visualizations show that the steering muscles operate through a diverse range of nonlinear mechanisms, revealing several unexpected features that could not have been identified using any other technique. The tendons of some steering muscles buckle on every wingbeat to accommodate high amplitude movements of the wing hinge. Other steering muscles absorb kinetic energy from an oscillating control linkage, which rotates at low wingbeat amplitude but translates at high wingbeat amplitude. Kinetic energy is distributed differently in these two modes of oscillation, which may play a role in asymmetric power management during flight control. Structural flexibility is known to be important to the aerodynamic efficiency of insect wings, and to the function of their indirect power muscles. We show that it is integral also to the operation of the steering muscles, and so to the functional flexibility of the insect flight motor

Associations between cardiorespiratory fitness, physical activity and clustered cardiometabolic risk in children and adolescents: the HAPPY study

Clustering of cardiometabolic risk factors can occur during childhood and predisposes individuals to cardiometabolic disease. This study calculated clustered cardiometabolic risk in 100 children and adolescents aged 10-14 years (59 girls) and explored differences according to cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) levels and time spent at different physical activity (PA) intensities. CRF was determined using a maximal cycle ergometer test, and PA was assessed using accelerometry. A cardiometabolic risk score was computed as the sum of the standardised scores for waist circumference, blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein ratio, triglycerides and glucose. Differences in clustered cardiometabolic risk between fit and unfit participants, according to previously proposed health-related threshold values, and between tertiles for PA subcomponents were assessed using ANCOVA. Clustered risk was significantly lower (p < 0.001) in the fit group (mean 1.21 ± 3.42) compared to the unfit group (mean -0.74 ± 2.22), while no differences existed between tertiles for any subcomponent of PA. Conclusion These findings suggest that CRF may have an important cardioprotective role in children and adolescents and highlights the importance of promoting CRF in youth

Planet Populations as a Function of Stellar Properties

Exoplanets around different types of stars provide a window into the diverse environments in which planets form. This chapter describes the observed relations between exoplanet populations and stellar properties and how they connect to planet formation in protoplanetary disks. Giant planets occur more frequently around more metal-rich and more massive stars. These findings support the core accretion theory of planet formation, in which the cores of giant planets form more rapidly in more metal-rich and more massive protoplanetary disks. Smaller planets, those with sizes roughly between Earth and Neptune, exhibit different scaling relations with stellar properties. These planets are found around stars with a wide range of metallicities and occur more frequently around lower mass stars. This indicates that planet formation takes place in a wide range of environments, yet it is not clear why planets form more efficiently around low mass stars. Going forward, exoplanet surveys targeting M dwarfs will characterize the exoplanet population around the lowest mass stars. In combination with ongoing stellar characterization, this will help us understand the formation of planets in a large range of environments.Comment: Accepted for Publication in the Handbook of Exoplanet

Maternal effects on anogenital distance in a wild marmot population

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Walks4work: Rationale and study design to investigate walking at lunchtime in the workplace setting

Background: Following recruitment of a private sector company, an 8week lunchtime walking intervention was implemented to examine the effect of the intervention on modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors, and further to see if walking environment had any further effect on the cardiovascular disease risk factors. Methods. For phase 1 of the study participants were divided into three groups, two lunchtime walking intervention groups to walk around either an urban or natural environment twice a week during their lunch break over an 8week period. The third group was a waiting-list control who would be invited to join the walking groups after phase 1. In phase 2 all participants were encouraged to walk during their lunch break on self-selecting routes. Health checks were completed at baseline, end of phase 1 and end of phase 2 in order to measure the impact of the intervention on cardiovascular disease risk. The primary outcome variables of heart rate and heart rate variability were measured to assess autonomic function associated with cardiovascular disease. Secondary outcome variables (Body mass index, blood pressure, fitness, autonomic response to a stressor) related to cardiovascular disease were also measured. The efficacy of the intervention in increasing physical activity was objectively monitored throughout the 8-weeks using an accelerometer device. Discussion. The results of this study will help in developing interventions with low researcher input with high participant output that may be implemented in the workplace. If effective, this study will highlight the contribution that natural environments can make in the reduction of modifiable cardiovascular disease risk factors within the workplace. © 2012 Brown et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd