Sustainable Urban Systems: Co-design and Framing for Transformation

Rapid urbanisation generates risks and opportunities for sustainable development. Urban policy and decision makers are challenged by the complexity of cities as social–ecological–technical systems. Consequently there is an increasing need for collaborative knowledge development that supports a whole-of-system view, and transformational change at multiple scales. Such holistic urban approaches are rare in practice. A co-design process involving researchers, practitioners and other stakeholders, has progressed such an approach in the Australian context, aiming to also contribute to international knowledge development and sharing. This process has generated three outputs: (1) a shared framework to support more systematic knowledge development and use, (2) identification of barriers that create a gap between stated urban goals and actual practice, and (3) identification of strategic focal areas to address this gap. Developing integrated strategies at broader urban scales is seen as the most pressing need. The knowledge framework adopts a systems perspective that incorporates the many urban trade-offs and synergies revealed by a systems view. Broader implications are drawn for policy and decision makers, for researchers and for a shared forward agenda

Unconfined Aquifer Flow Theory - from Dupuit to present

Analytic and semi-analytic solution are often used by researchers and practicioners to estimate aquifer parameters from unconfined aquifer pumping tests. The non-linearities associated with unconfined (i.e., water table) aquifer tests makes their analysis more complex than confined tests. Although analytical solutions for unconfined flow began in the mid-1800s with Dupuit, Thiem was possibly the first to use them to estimate aquifer parameters from pumping tests in the early 1900s. In the 1950s, Boulton developed the first transient well test solution specialized to unconfined flow. By the 1970s Neuman had developed solutions considering both primary transient storage mechanisms (confined storage and delayed yield) without non-physical fitting parameters. In the last decade, research into developing unconfined aquifer test solutions has mostly focused on explicitly coupling the aquifer with the linearized vadose zone. Despite the many advanced solution methods available, there still exists a need for realism to accurately simulate real-world aquifer tests

Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor’s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Phylogenetic analysis of metastatic progression in breast cancer using somatic mutations and copy number aberrations.

Several studies using genome-wide molecular techniques have reported various degrees of genetic heterogeneity between primary tumours and their distant metastases. However, it has been difficult to discern patterns of dissemination owing to the limited number of patients and available metastases. Here, we use phylogenetic techniques on data generated using whole-exome sequencing and copy number profiling of primary and multiple-matched metastatic tumours from ten autopsied patients to infer the evolutionary history of breast cancer progression. We observed two modes of disease progression. In some patients, all distant metastases cluster on a branch separate from their primary lesion. Clonal frequency analyses of somatic mutations show that the metastases have a monoclonal origin and descend from a common 'metastatic precursor'. Alternatively, multiple metastatic lesions are seeded from different clones present within the primary tumour. We further show that a metastasis can be horizontally cross-seeded. These findings provide insights into breast cancer dissemination

Targeting cancer metabolism: a therapeutic window opens

Genetic events in cancer activate signalling pathways that alter cell metabolism. Clinical evidence has linked cell metabolism with cancer outcomes. Together, these observations have raised interest in targeting metabolic enzymes for cancer therapy, but they have also raised concerns that these therapies would have unacceptable effects on normal cells. However, some of the first cancer therapies that were developed target the specific metabolic needs of cancer cells and remain effective agents in the clinic today. Research into how changes in cell metabolism promote tumour growth has accelerated in recent years. This has refocused efforts to target metabolic dependencies of cancer cells as a selective anticancer strategy.Burroughs Wellcome FundSmith Family FoundationStarr Cancer ConsortiumDamon Runyon Cancer Research FoundationNational Institutes of Health (U.S.

Characterization of a fluvial aquifer at a range of depths and scales: the Triassic St Bees Sandstone Formation, Cumbria, UK

Fluvial sedimentary successions represent porous media that host groundwater and geothermal resources. Additionally, they overlie crystalline rocks hosting nuclear waste repositories in rift settings. The permeability characteristics of an arenaceous fluvial succession, the Triassic St Bees Sandstone Formation in England (UK), are described, from core-plug to well-test scale up to ~1 km depth. Within such lithified successions, dissolution associated with the circulation of meteoric water results in increased permeability (K~10−1–100 m/day) to depths of at least 150 m below ground level (BGL) in aquifer systems that are subject to rapid groundwater circulation. Thus, contaminant transport is likely to occur at relatively high rates. In a deeper investigation (> 150 m depth), where the aquifer has not been subjected to rapid groundwater circulation, well-test-scale hydraulic conductivity is lower, decreasing from K~10−2 m/day at 150–400 m BGL to 10−3 m/day down-dip at ~1 km BGL, where the pore fluid is hypersaline. Here, pore-scale permeability becomes progressively dominant with increasing lithostatic load. Notably, this work investigates a sandstone aquifer of fluvial origin at investigation depths consistent with highly enthalpy geothermal reservoirs (~0.7–1.1 km). At such depths, intergranular flow dominates in unfaulted areas with only minor contribution by bedding plane fractures. However, extensional faults represent preferential flow pathways, due to presence of high connective open fractures. Therefore, such faults may (1) drive nuclear waste contaminants towards the highly permeable shallow (< 150 m BGL) zone of the aquifer, and (2) influence fluid recovery in geothermal fields

Evaluation of Analytical Methods to Study Aquifer Properties with Pumping Tests in Coastal Aquifers with Numerical Modelling (Motril-Salobreña Aquifer)

Two pumping tests were performed in the unconfined Motril-Salobreña detrital aquifer in a 250 m-deep well 300 m from the coastline containing both freshwater and saltwater. It is an artesian well as it is in the discharge zone of this coastal aquifer. The two observation wells where the drawdowns are measured record the influence of tidal fluctuations, and the well lithological columns reveal high vertical heterogeneity in the aquifer. The Theis and Cooper-Jacob approaches give average transmissivity (T) and storage coefficient (S) values of 1460 m2 /d and 0.027, respectively. Other analytical solutions, modified to be more accurate in the boundary conditions found in coastal aquifers, provide similar T values to those found with the Theis and Cooper-Jacob methods, but give very different S values or could not estimate them. Numerical modelling in a synthetic model was applied to analyse the sensitivity of the Theis and Cooper-Jacob approaches to the usual boundary conditions in coastal aquifers. The T and S values calculated from the numerical modelling drawdowns indicate that the regional flow, variable pumping flows, and tidal effect produce an error of under 10 % compared to results obtained with classic methods. Fluids of different density (freshwater and saltwater) cause an error of 20 % in estimating T and of over 100 % in calculating S. The factor most affecting T and S results in the pumping test interpretation is vertical heterogeneity in sediments, which can produce errors of over 100 % in both parameters.This research has been financed by Project CGL2012-32892 (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain) and by the Research Group Sedimentary Geology and Groundwater (RNM-369) of the Junta de Andalucía

Affecting Rhomboid-3 Function Causes a Dilated Heart in Adult Drosophila

Drosophila is a well recognized model of several human diseases, and recent investigations have demonstrated that Drosophila can be used as a model of human heart failure. Previously, we described that optical coherence tomography (OCT) can be used to rapidly examine the cardiac function in adult, awake flies. This technique provides images that are similar to echocardiography in humans, and therefore we postulated that this approach could be combined with the vast resources that are available in the fly community to identify new mutants that have abnormal heart function, a hallmark of certain cardiovascular diseases. Using OCT to examine the cardiac function in adult Drosophila from a set of molecularly-defined genomic deficiencies from the DrosDel and Exelixis collections, we identified an abnormally enlarged cardiac chamber in a series of deficiency mutants spanning the rhomboid 3 locus. Rhomboid 3 is a member of a highly conserved family of intramembrane serine proteases and processes Spitz, an epidermal growth factor (EGF)–like ligand. Using multiple approaches based on the examination of deficiency stocks, a series of mutants in the rhomboid-Spitz–EGF receptor pathway, and cardiac-specific transgenic rescue or dominant-negative repression of EGFR, we demonstrate that rhomboid 3 mediated activation of the EGF receptor pathway is necessary for proper adult cardiac function. The importance of EGF receptor signaling in the adult Drosophila heart underscores the concept that evolutionarily conserved signaling mechanisms are required to maintain normal myocardial function. Interestingly, prior work showing the inhibition of ErbB2, a member of the EGF receptor family, in transgenic knock-out mice or individuals that received herceptin chemotherapy is associated with the development of dilated cardiomyopathy. Our results, in conjunction with the demonstration that altered ErbB2 signaling underlies certain forms of mammalian cardiomyopathy, suggest that an evolutionarily conserved signaling mechanism may be necessary to maintain post-developmental cardiac function