Hitting a moving target: a model for malaria elimination in the presence of population movement

Abstract South Africa is committed to eliminating malaria with a goal of zero local transmission by 2018. Malaria elimination strategies may be unsuccessful if they focus only on vector biology, and ignore the mobility patterns of humans, particularly where the majority of infections are imported. In the first study in Mpumalanga Province in South Africa designed for this purpose, a metapopulation model is developed to assess the impact of their proposed elimination-focused policy interventions. A stochastic, non-linear, ordinary-differential equation model is fitted to malaria data from Mpumalanga and neighbouring Maputo Province in Mozambique. Further scaling-up of vector control is predicted to lead to a minimal reduction in local infections, while mass drug administration and focal screening and treatment at the Mpumalanga-Maputo border are predicted to have only a short-lived impact. Source reduction in Maputo Province is predicted to generate large reductions in local infections through stemming imported infections. The mathematical model predicts malaria elimination to be possible only when imported infections are treated before entry or eliminated at the source suggesting that a regionally focused strategy appears needed, for achieving malaria elimination in Mpumalanga and South Africa

Universal health coverage from multiple perspectives: a synthesis of conceptual literature and global debates

Background: There is an emerging global consensus on the importance of universal health coverage (UHC), but no unanimity on the conceptual definition and scope of UHC, whether UHC is achievable or not, how to move towards it, common indicators for measuring its progress, and its long-term sustainability. This has resulted in various interpretations of the concept, emanating from different disciplinary perspectives. This paper discusses the various dimensions of UHC emerging from these interpretations and argues for the need to pay attention to the complex interactions across the various components of a health system in the pursuit of UHC as a legal human rights issue. Discussion: The literature presents UHC as a multi-dimensional concept, operationalized in terms of universal population coverage, universal financial protection, and universal access to quality health care, anchored on the basis of health care as an international legal obligation grounded in international human rights laws. As a legal concept, UHC implies the existence of a legal framework that mandates national governments to provide health care to all residents while compelling the international community to support poor nations in implementing this right. As a humanitarian social concept, UHC aims at achieving universal population coverage by enrolling all residents into health-related social security systems and securing equitable entitlements to the benefits from the health system for all. As a health economics concept, UHC guarantees financial protection by providing a shield against the catastrophic and impoverishing consequences of out-of-pocket expenditure, through the implementation of pooled prepaid financing systems. As a public health concept, UHC has attracted several controversies regarding which services should be covered: comprehensive services vs. minimum basic package, and priority disease-specific interventions vs. primary health care. Summary: As a multi-dimensional concept, grounded in international human rights laws, the move towards UHC in LMICs requires all states to effectively recognize the right to health in their national constitutions. It also requires a human rights-focused integrated approach to health service delivery that recognizes the health system as a complex phenomenon with interlinked functional units whose effective interaction are essential to reach the equilibrium called UHC

Leveraging epidemiology as a decision support tool during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa

By May 2021, South Africa (SA) had experienced two ‘waves’ of COVID-19 infections, with an initial peak of infections reached in July 2020, followed by a larger peak of infections in January 2021. Public health decisions rely on accurate and timely disease surveillance and epidemiological analyses, and accessibility of data at all levels of government is critical to inform stakeholders to respond effectively. In this paper, we describe the adaptation, development and operation of epidemiological surveillance and modelling systems in SA in response to the COVID-19 epidemic, including data systems for monitoring laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, mortality and recoveries at a national and provincial level, and how these systems were used to inform modelling projections and public health decisions. Detailed descriptions on the characteristics and completeness of individual datasets are not provided in this paper. Rapid development of robust data systems was necessary to support the response to the SA COVID-19 epidemic. These systems produced data streams that were used in decision-making at all levels of government. While much progress was made in producing epidemiological data, challenges remain to be overcome to address gaps to better prepare for future waves of COVID-19 and other health emergencies

Home birth without skilled attendants despite millennium villages project intervention in Ghana: insight from a survey of women’s perceptions of skilled obstetric care

BACKGROUND: Skilled birth attendance from a trained health professional during labour and delivery can prevent up to 75 % of maternal deaths. However, in low- and middle-income rural communities, lack of basic medical infrastructure and limited number of skilled birth attendants are significant barriers to timely obstetric care. Through analysis of self-reported data, this study aimed to assess the effect of an intervention addressing barriers in access to skilled obstetric care and identified factors associated with the use of unskilled birth attendants during delivery in a rural district of Ghana. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted from June to August 2012 in the Amansie West District of Ghana among women of reproductive age. Multi-stage, random, and population proportional techniques were used to sample 50 communities and 400 women for data collection. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with place of delivery. RESULTS: A total of 391 mothers had attended an antenatal care clinic at least once for their most recent birth; 42.3 % of them had unskilled deliveries. Reasons reported for the use of unskilled birth attendants during delivery were: insults from health workers (23.5 %), unavailability of transport (21.9 %), and confidence in traditional birth attendants (17.9 %); only 7.4 % reported to have had sudden labour. Other factors associated with the use of unskilled birth attendants during delivery included: lack of partner involvement aOR = 0.03 (95 % CI; 0.01, 0.06), lack of birth preparedness aOR = 0.05 (95 % CI; 0.02, 0.13) and lack of knowledge of the benefits of skilled delivery aOR = 0.37 (95 % CI; 0.11, 1.20). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the importance of provider-client relationship and cultural sensitivity in the efforts to improve skilled obstetric care uptake among rural women in Ghana

Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: a population level mathematical modelling approach

Background This paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the country. Methods Using data from the District Health Information Management System of the Ghana Health Service from 2008 to 2017, and historical intervention coverage levels, ordinary non-linear differential equations models were developed. These models incorporated transitions amongst various disease compartments for the three main ecological zones in Ghana. The Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach, with a distance based rejection criteria, was adopted for calibration. A leave-one-out approach was used to validate model parameters and the most sensitive parameters were evaluated using a multivariate regression analysis. The impact of insecticide-treated bed nets and their usage, and indoor residual spraying, as well as their protective efficacy on the incidence of malaria, was simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone to investigate the prospects of achieving goals of the Ghana malaria control strategy for 2014–2020. Results Increasing the coverage levels of both long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying activities, without a corresponding increase in their recommended utilization, does not impact highly on averting predicted incidence of malaria. Improving proper usage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets could lead to substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying across all ecological zones of Ghana. Conclusions Projected goals set in the national strategic plan for malaria control 2014–2020, as well as World Health Organization targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030, are only likely to be achieved if a substantial improvement in treated bed net usage is achieved, coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high community acceptability and efficacy

Study of the γ decay of high-lying states in 208Pb via inelastic scattering of 17O ions

High-lying states in 208Pb nucleus were populated via inelastic scattering of a 17O beam at bombarding energy of 20 MeV/u. Their subsequent gamma decay was measured with the detector system AGATA Demonstrator based on HPGe detectors, coupled to an array of large volume LaBr3:Ce scintillators. Preliminary results in comparison with (γ,γ′) data, for states in the 5–8 MeV energy interval, seem to indicate that in that region the states belong to two different groups one with a isoscalar character and the other with a isovector nature. This is similar to what was observed in other stable nuclei with (α,α′γ) experiments. The multipolarity of the observed gamma transitions is determined with remarkable sensitivity thanks to angular distribution measurements. Data aiming at studying the neutron decay of the Giant Quadrupole Resonance in the 208Pb by the high resolution measurement of the following gamma decay are also presented in their preliminary form