Pre-enriched, not primordial ellipticals

We follow the chemical evolution of a galaxy through star formation and its feedback into the inter-stellar medium, starting from primordial gas and allowing for gas to inflow into the region being modelled. We attempt to reproduce observed spectral line-strengths for early-type galaxies to constrain their star formation histories. The efficiencies and times of star formation are varied as well as the amount and duration of inflow. We evaluate the chemical enrichment and the mass of stars made with time. Single stellar population (SSP) data are then used to predict line-strengths for composite stellar populations. The results are compared with observed line-strengths in ten ellipticals, including some features which help to break the problem of age-metallicity degeneracy in old stellar populations. We find that the elliptical galaxies modelled require high metallicity SSPs (>3 x solar) at later times. In addition the strong lines observed cannot be produced by an initial starburst in primordial gas, even if a large amount of inflow is allowed for during the first few x 10E+8 years. This is because some pre-enrichment is required for lines in the bulk of the stars to approach the observed line-strengths in ellipticals.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, Latex, accepted for publication in MNRA

The impact of binary-star yields on the spectra of galaxies

One of the complexities in modelling integrated spectra of stellar populations is the effect of interacting binary stars besides Type Ia supernovae (SNeIa). These include common envelope systems, cataclysmic variables, novae, and are usually ignored in models predicting the chemistry and spectral absorption line strengths in galaxies. In this paper, predictions of chemical yields from populations of single and binary stars are incorporated into a galactic chemical evolution model to explore the significance of the effects of these other binary yields. Effects on spectral line strengths from different progenitor channels of SNeIa are also explored. Small systematic effects are found when the yields from binaries, other than SNeIa, are included, for a given star formation history. These effects are, at present, within the observational uncertainties on the line strengths. More serious differences can arise in considering different types of SNIa models, their rates and contributions

Constraining the Star Formation Histories of Spiral Bulges

Long-slit spectroscopic observations of line-strengths and kinematics made along the minor axes of four spiral bulges are reported. Comparisons are made between central line-strengths in spiral bulges and those in other morphological types. The bulges are found to have central line-strengths comparable with those of single stellar populations (SSPs) of approximately solar abundance or above. Negative radial gradients are observed in line-strengths, similar to those in elliptical galaxies. The bulge data are consistent with correlations between Mg2, and central velocity dispersion observed in elliptical galaxiess. In contrast to elliptical galaxies, central line-strengths lie within the loci defining the range of and Mg2 achieved by Worthey's (1994) solar abundance ratio, SSPs. The implication of solar abundance ratios indicates differences in the star formation histories of spiral bulges and elliptical galaxies. A ``single zone with in- fall'' model of galactic chemical evolution, using Worthey's (1994) SSPs, is used to constrain possible star formation histories in our sample. We show that , Mg2 and Hbeta line-strengths observed in these bulges cannot be reproduced using primordial collapse models of formation but can be reproduced by models with extended in-fall of gas and star formation (2-17 Gyr) in the region modelled. One galaxy (NGC 5689) shows a central population with luminosity weighted average age of ~5 Gyr, supporting the idea of extended star formation. Kinematic substructure, possibly associated with a central spike in metallicity, is observed at the centre of the Sa galaxy NGC 3623.Comment: 14 pages. MNRAS latex file. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Calcium signalling links MYC to NUAK1

NUAK1 is a member of the AMPK-related family of kinases. Recent evidence suggests that NUAK1 is an important regulator of cell adhesion and migration, cellular and organismal metabolism, and regulation of TAU stability. As such, NUAK1 may play key roles in multiple diseases ranging from neurodegeneration to diabetes and metastatic cancer. Previous work revealed a crucial role for NUAK1 in supporting viability of tumour cells specifically when MYC is overexpressed. This role is surprising, given that NUAK1 is activated by the tumour suppressor LKB1. Here we show that, in tumour cells lacking LKB1, NUAK1 activity is maintained by an alternative pathway involving calcium-dependent activation of PKCα. Calcium/PKCα-dependent activation of NUAK1 supports engagement of the AMPK-TORC1 metabolic checkpoint, thereby protecting tumour cells from MYC-driven cell death, and indeed, MYC selects for this pathway in part via transcriptional regulation of PKCα and ITPR. Our data point to a novel role for calcium in supporting tumour cell viability and clarify the synthetic lethal interaction between NUAK1 and MYC

A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper proposes a Bayesian inferential framework that provides a simple 6-parameter representation of ensemble forecasting systems and the corresponding observations. The framework is probabilistic, and thus allows for quantifying uncertainty in predictability measures such as correlation skill and signal-to-noise ratios. It also provides a natural way to produce recalibrated probabilistic predictions from uncalibrated ensembles forecasts. The framework is used to address important questions concerning the skill of winter hindcasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation for 1992-2011 issued by the Met Office GloSea5 climate prediction system. Although there is much uncertainty in the correlation between ensemble mean and observations, there is strong evidence of skill: the 95% credible interval of the correlation coefficient of [0.19,0.68] does not overlap zero. There is also strong evidence that the forecasts are not exchangeable with the observations: With over 99% certainty, the signal-to-noise ratio of the forecasts is smaller than the signal-to-noise ratio of the observations, which suggests that raw forecasts should not be taken as representative scenarios of the observations. Forecast recalibration is thus required, which can be coherently addressed within the proposed framework.Comment: 36 pages, 10 figure

Dust effects on the derived Sersic indexes of disks and bulges in spiral galaxies

We present a theoretical study that quantifies the effect of dust on the derived Sersic indexes of disks and bulges. The changes in the derived parameters from their intrinsic values (as seen in the absence of dust) were obtained by fitting Sersic distributions on simulated images of disks and bulges produced using radiative transfer calculations and the model of Popescu et al. 2011. We found that dust has the effect of lowering the measured Sersic index in most cases, with stronger effects for disks and bulges seen through more optically thick lines of sight.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figures, to appear in the Proceedings of the IAU Symposium No.284, "The Spectral Energy Distribution of Galaxies", 5-9 sept. 2011, editors Richard J. Tuffs and Cristina C. Popesc

Understanding quit decisions in primary care: a qualitative study of older GPs

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.OBJECTIVE: To investigate the reasons behind intentions to quit direct patient care among experienced general practitioners (GPs) aged 50-60 years. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study based on semistructured interviews with GPs in the South West region of England. Transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. PARTICIPANTS: 23 GPs aged 50-60 years: 3 who had retired from direct patient care before age 60, and 20 who intended to quit direct patient care within the next 5 years. RESULTS: The analysis identified four key themes: early retirement is a viable option for many GPs; GPs have employment options other than undertaking direct patient care; GPs report feeling they are doing an (almost) undoable job; and GPs may have other aspirations that pull them away from practice. Findings from this study confirmed those from earlier research, with high workload, ageing and health, family and domestic life, and organisational change all influencing GPs' decisions about when to retire/quit direct patient care. However, in addition, GPs expressed feelings of insecurity and uncertainty regarding the future of general practice, low morale, and issues regarding accountability (appraisal and revalidation) and governance. Suggestions about how to help retain GPs within the active clinical workforce were offered, covering individual, practice and organisational levels. CONCLUSIONS: This research highlights aspects of the current professional climate for GPs that are having an impact on retirement decisions. Any future changes to policy or practice to help retain experienced GPs will benefit from this informed understanding of GPs' views. Key factors to take into account include: making the GP workload more manageable; managing change sympathetically; paying attention to GPs' own health; improving confidence in the future of general practice; and improving GP morale.This study was funded by the South West Academic Health Science Network (grant number: SWAHSN 4.21.019) and the University of Exeter Medical School

K-Ras and β-catenin mutations cooperate with Fgfr3 mutations in mice to promote tumorigenesis in the skin and lung, but not in the bladder

The human fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) gene is frequently mutated in superficial urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC). To test the functional significance of FGFR3 activating mutations as a ‘driver’ of UCC, we targeted the expression of mutated Fgfr3 to the murine urothelium using Cre-loxP recombination driven by the uroplakin II promoter. The introduction of the Fgfr3 mutations resulted in no obvious effect on tumorigenesis up to 18 months of age. Furthermore, even when the Fgfr3 mutations were introduced together with K-Ras or β-catenin (Ctnnb1) activating mutations, no urothelial dysplasia or UCC was observed. Interestingly, however, owing to a sporadic ectopic Cre recombinase expression in the skin and lung of these mice, Fgfr3 mutation caused papilloma and promoted lung tumorigenesis in cooperation with K-Ras and β-catenin activation, respectively. These results indicate that activation of FGFR3 can cooperate with other mutations to drive tumorigenesis in a context-dependent manner, and support the hypothesis that activation of FGFR3 signaling contributes to human cancer