Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019 : an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Acknowledgments S Aljunid acknowledges the International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia and Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, International Medical University, Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. A Cohen was supported by the Health Effects Institute, Boston, MA, USA. D Dereje acknowledges the research team. A Douiri acknowledges support by King's Health Partners / Guyâs and St Thomas Charity MLTC Challenge Fund (grant number EIC180702) and the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) South London at King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. T Ekundayo thanks the African-German Network of Excellence in Science, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for financial support. R Erkhembayar is partially funded by the WHO. A Fatehizadeh acknowledges support from the Department of Environmental Health Engineering of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran. S Gahre acknowledges the Institute of Applied Health Sciences (IAHS), School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition (SMMSN), University of Aberdeen for their institutional support for this work. V K Gupta acknowledges funding support from NHMRC (National Health and Medical Research) Australia. R Hartono thanks IHME who provide the GBD Data. C Herteliu is partially supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021. S Hussain was supported from Operational Programme Research, Development and Education Project, Postdoc2MUNI(No. CZ.02.2.69/0.0/0.0/18_053/0016952). BF Hwang was partially supported by China Medical University (CMU111-MF-55). M Jakovlievic declares that the serbian part of this GBD contribution was co-funded through Grant OI 175 014 of the Ministry of Education Technological Development and Science of the Republic of Serbia. T Joo acknowledges support from the National Research, Development and Innovation Office in Hungary (RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006, Data-Driven Health Division of National Laboratory for Health Security). N Joseph thanks the Department of Community Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India for encouraging research activities. H Kandel is supported by the Kornhauser Research Fellowship at The University of Sydney. M Khan is the recipient of College of Medicine and Health Sciences research grant, Grant numbers G00003634, G00003569 and UAEU Sustainable Development Goals Grant, Grant number 1976. K Krishan acknowledges Non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India, outside the submitted work. K Latief acknowledges Taipei Medical University. MC Li was supported by the National Science and Technology Council in Taiwan (NSTC 111-2410-H-003-100-SSS). G Liu was supported by a CREATE scientific fellowship from Lung Foundation Australia. T H Malihi would like to acknowledge the support and encouragement from Deanship of Scientific Research at Jouf University, Saudi Arabia to actively Participate in this project. D Malta acknowledges CNPQ - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico. E Mathews is supported by a Clinical and Public Health Early Career Fellowship (grant number IA/CPHE/17/1/503345) from the DBT India Alliance/Wellcome Trust†Department of Biotechnology, India Alliance. AF A Mentis would like to acknowledge Anna Gkika for her continuous moral support during this study. L Monasta was supported by the Italian Ministry of Health, through a contribution given to the Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy. M Moniruzzaman was supported by The University of Queensland Postdoctoral Fellowship. J R Padubidri acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore and Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal for their constant support towards collaborative research. P Pedersini declares support and funding by the Italian Ministry of Health - Ricerca Corrente 2022. S Rahmani acknowledges the primary investigator for all their support. M Rodrigues acknowledges support from the Portuguese Council for Health and Environment. K E Rudd is supported by NIH/NIGMS grant 1K23GM141463-02. U Saeed acknowledges the International Center of Medical Sciences Research (ICMSR), Islamabad Pakistan. A M Samy acknowledges the support from Ain Shams University and the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program F Thienemann is supported by the European Union (grant number RIA2017T-2004-StatinTB). X Xu is supported by Scientia Program at the University of New South Wales, Australia. This study was solely funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The funders of the study had no role in study design; collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; or writing of the report. The corresponding author had full access to the data and had responsibility for final submission of the manuscript. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. FINDINGS: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1-79·5) in individuals aged 75-79 years. Total diabetes prevalence-especially among older adults-primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5-30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1-17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8-11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. INTERPRETATION: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Review of recent innovations in portable child growth measurement devices for use in low- and middle-income countries

Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Ulster University colleagues, Professor John Anthony Byrne (principal investigator for the SAFEWATER project), Ms Vanessa Ross (SAFEWATER Project Manager) and Ms Anna Zmuda-Trzebiatowska (Global Grants Development Manager) for their guidance and support throughout the project. We are grateful to all the growth measurement device developers for sharing their product information with us. The authors accept full responsibility for this paper and have no competing interests. Funding The authors wish to acknowledge funding from the Department of Economy, The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Internal Pump Priming Call, in turn building upon a much larger GCRF, UK Research and Innovation grant for the SAFEWATER project (EPSRC Grant Reference EP/P032427/1).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

EMPOWERING GLOBAL NUTRITION WITH DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY : PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION IN CLINICAL PRACTICE AND RESEARCH

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Field-testing solutions for drinking water quality monitoring in low- and middle-income regions and case studies from Latin American, African and Asian countries

This study is part of SAFEWATER Devices Translation and Implementation project supported by the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Global Research Translation Awards, UK Research and Innovation (SAFEWATER Translate, EPSRC Grant Reference EP/T015470/1).This work highlights the need for a global approach to drinking water monitoring that involves facing several critical issues. Field tests that perform to very high standards of indicator microorganisms’ detection and confidence and, at the same time, being available in rural and isolated locations of low-income settings are urgently needed. Commercially available field-testing solutions for Escherichia coli determination based on hydrogen sulfide and defined substrate methods were critically reviewed, considering their capabilities and limitations, compliance against the UNICEF Target Product Profile (TPP), technology performance, availability, and cost. None of the available tests meets the standards set by the UNICEF TPP, the biggest limitation being the requirement of a power source. They need at least 18 to 24 h of incubation, hence they have not significantly decreased the amount of the time needed to complete an assay; and their applicability is generally limited by the sample volume. Additionally, there is still need for more accurate and standardised validation studiesthat open new opportunities for lowcost testing solutions in the field. On the other hand, traditional methods are the only ones legally authorised by national regulations in the case study locations, with a range of resources and technologies limitations. Despite the use of field kits is beginning to gain acceptance, its implementation in the field strongly relies on their availability and cost locally. Most field kits price exceed the maximum of 6 USD set by UNICEF, and they even cost significantly more when acquire from local distributors in developing countries

Type and extent of trans-disciplinary co-operation to improve food security, health and household environment in low and middle income countries: systematic review

Acknowledgements: We are grateful to Dr Steve Turner and Dr Adam Price for their insightful comments that improved the manuscript. We would like to thank Heather Clark and Bimbola Kalejaiye for their help in data extraction. We are also grateful to Melanie Bickerton and Dr Amudha Poobalan for their systematic review advice.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10–24 years in the EU, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: Disability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU. Methods: Estimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State. Findings: In 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5–88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4–39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10–24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62–4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25–298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56–2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96–2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10–24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04–12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53–8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78–10 701·59] vs 6083·91 [4576·63–7857·92]). From 1990 to 2019, mortality rate due to NCDs in adolescents aged 10–24 years substantially decreased (–40·41% [–43·00 to –37·61), and also the YLL rate considerably decreased (–40·56% [–43·16 to –37·74]), except for mental disorders (which increased by 32·18% [1·67 to 66·49]), whereas the YLD rate increased slightly (1·44% [0·09 to 2·79]). Positive correlations were observed between DALY rates and SDIs for substance use disorders (rs=0·58, p=0·0012) and skin and subcutaneous diseases (rs=0·45, p=0·017), whereas negative correlations were found between DALY rates and SDIs for cardiovascular diseases (rs=–0·46, p=0·015), neoplasms (rs=–0·57, p=0·0015), and sense organ diseases (rs=–0·61, p=0·0005). Interpretation: NCD-related mortality has substantially declined among adolescents in the EU between 1990 and 2019, but the rising trend of YLL attributed to mental disorders and their YLD burden are concerning. Differences by sex, age group, and across EU Member States highlight the importance of preventive interventions and scaling up adolescent-responsive health-care systems, which should prioritise specific needs by sex, age, and location. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Communicable disease control has long been a focus of global health policy. There have been substantial reductions in the burden and mortality of communicable diseases among children younger than 5 years, but we know less about this burden in older children and adolescents, and it is unclear whether current programmes and policies remain aligned with targets for intervention. This knowledge is especially important for policy and programmes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to use the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to systematically characterise the burden of communicable diseases across childhood and adolescence. METHODS: In this systematic analysis of the GBD study from 1990 to 2019, all communicable diseases and their manifestations as modelled within GBD 2019 were included, categorised as 16 subgroups of common diseases or presentations. Data were reported for absolute count, prevalence, and incidence across measures of cause-specific mortality (deaths and years of life lost), disability (years lived with disability [YLDs]), and disease burden (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs]) for children and adolescents aged 0-24 years. Data were reported across the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and across time (1990-2019), and for 204 countries and territories. For HIV, we reported the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) as a measure of health system performance. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·0 million deaths and 30·0 million years of healthy life lost to disability (as measured by YLDs), corresponding to 288·4 million DALYs from communicable diseases among children and adolescents globally (57·3% of total communicable disease burden across all ages). Over time, there has been a shift in communicable disease burden from young children to older children and adolescents (largely driven by the considerable reductions in children younger than 5 years and slower progress elsewhere), although children younger than 5 years still accounted for most of the communicable disease burden in 2019. Disease burden and mortality were predominantly in low-SDI settings, with high and high-middle SDI settings also having an appreciable burden of communicable disease morbidity (4·0 million YLDs in 2019 alone). Three cause groups (enteric infections, lower-respiratory-tract infections, and malaria) accounted for 59·8% of the global communicable disease burden in children and adolescents, with tuberculosis and HIV both emerging as important causes during adolescence. HIV was the only cause for which disease burden increased over time, particularly in children and adolescents older than 5 years, and especially in females. Excess MIRs for HIV were observed for males aged 15-19 years in low-SDI settings. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis supports continued policy focus on enteric infections and lower-respiratory-tract infections, with orientation to children younger than 5 years in settings of low socioeconomic development. However, efforts should also be targeted to other conditions, particularly HIV, given its increased burden in older children and adolescents. Older children and adolescents also experience a large burden of communicable disease, further highlighting the need for efforts to extend beyond the first 5 years of life. Our analysis also identified substantial morbidity caused by communicable diseases affecting child and adolescent health across the world. FUNDING: The Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Centre for Research Excellence for Driving Investment in Global Adolescent Health and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4–89·0), working (33·8–82·8), and post-working (30·4–79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation: Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries