Tailored screening and dedicated funding for direct acting antiviral drugs: how to keep Italy on the road to hepatitis C virus elimination?

Background and aims. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination for Italy is an ambitious,but achievable goal. In Italy, there is political will, which aims to achieve the World HealthOrganization (WHO) elimination goals recognizing the need to identify undiagnosed individuals in key high-risk groups and in the general population, however there is concernregarding HCV treatment implementation in Italian Regions.Methods. A modelling analysis was conducted, using the “Italy Polaris” model, to forecastthe impact of different HCV treatment rates in achieving the HCV elimination goals inItaly. The model assessed two treatment scenarios: 2018 Scenario and 2019 Scenario, usingthe annually HCV treatment rate in Italy.Results. Considering a high treatment rate, as assumed by the 2018 Scenario, all HCVelimination targets would be achieved. Considering the 2019 Scenario, in which a decreasingnumber of newly diagnosed individuals and as consequence, a decline in thenumber of treated patients, were assumed, only the 65% HCV mortality reduction wouldbe an achievable goal in Italy. The other elimination targets could be achievable over 7years later than the year 2030.Conclusions. Establishing an ad hoc fund for DAAs for each Italian Region, binding resourcesboth for case finding, through active screening and activities for rapid linkage tocare and treatment, is of paramount importance, in order to keep Italy on track to achievethe WHO elimination targets by 2030

Modelling the microelimination of chronic hepatitis C in the canton of Bern, Switzerland: Reaching the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy goals despite the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic.

AIMS OF THE STUDY Since 2014, the Swiss Hepatitis Strategy (SHS) has targeted the elimination of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in Switzerland. The epidemiology of HCV is diverse across Swiss cantons, therefore cantonal-level screening and treatment strategies should be developed. This study aimed to identify scenarios to achieve HCV elimination in the canton of Bern by 2030. METHODS A preexisting Markov disease burden model was populated with data for Bern, and used to forecast the current and future prevalence of HCV, annual liver-related deaths (LRDs), and incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis until 2030. Scenarios were developed to assess the current standard of care and potential long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the HCV infected population. Additionally, potential scenarios for achieving the WHO 2030 targets and the SHS 2025 and 2030 targets (reduction of new cases of HCV, HCV-related mortality and viremic HCV cases) were identified. RESULTS In 2019, there were an estimated 4,600 (95% UI: 3,330-4,940) viremic infections in the canton of Bern and 57% (n = 2,600) of viremic cases were diagnosed. This modelling forecasted a 10% increase in LRDs (28 in 2020 to 31 in 2030) with the current standard of care and a 50% increase in LRDs in a scenario assuming long-term delays. To achieve the WHO and SHS targets, the canton of Bern needs to increase the annual number of patients diagnosed (from 90 in 2019 to 250 per year in 2022-2024 [WHO], or 500 per year in 2022-2025 [SHS]) and treated (from 130 in 2019 to 340 per year in 2022-2024 [WHO] or 670 per year in 2022-2025 [SHS]). CONCLUSIONS The SHS goals and the WHO targets for HCV elimination can be achieved in the Swiss canton of Bern by 2030; however, not at the current pace of screening, linkage to care and treatment

Modelling the impact of improving screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection on future hepatocellular carcinoma rates and liver-related mortality.

BACKGROUND: The societal, clinical and economic burden imposed by the complications of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection - including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) - is expected to increase over the coming decades. However, new therapies may improve sustained virological response (SVR) rates and shorten treatment duration. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of HCV-related disease in England if current management strategies remain the same and the impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available. METHODS: A previously published model was adapted for England using published literature and government reports, and validated through an iterative process of three meetings of HCV experts. The impact of increasing diagnosis and treatment of HCV as new therapies become available was modelled and compared to the base-case scenario of continuing current management strategies. To assess the 'best case' clinical benefit of new therapies, the number of patients treated was increased by a total of 115% by 2018. RESULTS: In the base-case scenario, total viraemic (HCV RNA-positive) cases of HCV in England will decrease from 144,000 in 2013 to 76,300 in 2030. However, due to the slow progression of chronic HCV, the number of individuals with cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will continue to increase over this period. The model suggests that the 'best case' substantially reduces HCV-related hepatic disease and HCV-related liver mortality by 2020 compared to the base-case scenario. The number of HCV-related HCC cases would decrease 50% by 2020 and the number progressing from infection to decompensated cirrhosis would decline by 65%. Therefore, compared to projections of current practices, increasing treatment numbers by 115% by 2018 would reduce HCV-related mortality by 50% by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis suggests that with current treatment practices the number of patients developing HCV-related cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and HCC will increase substantially, with HCV-related liver deaths likely to double by 2030. However, increasing diagnosis and treatment rates could optimise the reduction in the burden of disease produced by the new therapies, potentially halving HCV-related liver mortality and HCV-related HCC by 2020

Strategies to eliminate hepatitis C in Croatia, a modelling study

Since a 2016 analysis on the epidemiology and disease burden of HCV in Croatia, the HCV treatment paradigm has shifted substantially. Fibrosis restrictions were removed, and the number of patients treated tripled. With these encouraging changes to policy and practice, an updated analysis was completed to guide resource allocation and a national strategic plan for HCV elimination in Croatia. A comprehensive literature review and discussions with in-country experts were used to identify epidemiological factors defining HCV disease burden in Croatia. An HCV disease burden model, seeded with this data, was used to assess the impact of increasing screening rates and delineate the steps needed to reach the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Health and Sector Strategy hepatitis C elimination targets. Achieving WHO elimination targets would reduce the number of viremic cases of HCV from 21,000 in 2015 to 4,000 by 2030 while averting 500 liver-related deaths, and 680 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and decompensated cirrhosis from 2015 to 2030, relative to the projections under the current standard of care. Screening practices will need to ramp up to testing about 250,000 Croatians annually so that about 1,500 patients can be diagnosed and treated each year. Elimination requires a coordinated effort between country and industry leaders including government authorities, policymakers and healthcare and insurance providers. Improved screening mechanisms will be needed for the scale-up required to achieve goals

The current and future burden of hepatitis B in Switzerland: a modelling study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Chronic hepatitis B infection (defined as sustained detection of hepatitis B virus [HBV] surface antigen [HBsAg] protein in serum) is a leading cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths. A situation analysis carried out by the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health estimated the HBsAg prevalence in Switzerland to be 0.53% (95% CI: 0.32-0.89%) in 2015 (~44,000 cases). A lower prevalence of chronic HBV in the younger generation and the adoption of universal coverage in the first year of life are expected to decrease the burden of HBV; however, a number of people in key populations (including migrants) remain undiagnosed and untreated, and infected individuals remain at risk of progressing to cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and death. Our primary objective was to examine the current and estimate the future disease burden of HBV in Switzerland and the impact of migration. The secondary objective was to estimate the impact of changing future treatment numbers. METHODS A modelling study was performed using an existing, validated model (PRoGReSs Model) applied to the Swiss context. Model inputs were selected through a literature search and expert consensus. Population data from the Federal Statistical Office were used alongside prevalence data from the Polaris Observatory to estimate the number of HBV infections among people born abroad. The PRoGReSs Model was populated with and calibrated to the available data and what-if scenarios were developed to explore the impact of intervention on the future burden of disease. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). RESULTS In 2020, there were an estimated 50,100 (95% UI: 47,500-55,000) HBsAg+ cases among people born abroad. Among people born in Switzerland, there were approximately 62,700 (UI: 58,900-68,400) total HBV infections (0.72% [UI: 0.68-0.79%] prevalence). Prevalence among infants and children under the age of 5 were both <0.1%. By 2030, prevalence of HBV is expected to decrease, although morbidity and mortality will increase. Increasing diagnosis (90%) and treatment (80% of those eligible) to meet the global health sector strategy on viral hepatitis programme targets could prevent 120 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma and 120 liver-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS Thanks to the historical vaccination programmes and the continued rollout of universal 3-dose coverage in the first year of life, Switzerland is expected to exceed the global health sector strategy targets for the reduction of incidence. While overall prevalence is decreasing, the current diagnosis and treatment levels remain below global health sector strategy targets

The Consensus Hepatitis C Cascade of Care:standardized reporting to monitor progress toward elimination

Cascade-of-care (CoC) monitoring is an important component of the response to the global hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic. CoC metrics can be used to communicate, in simple terms, the extent to which national and subnational governments are advancing on key targets, and CoC findings can inform strategic decision-making regarding how to maximize the progression of individuals with HCV to diagnosis, treatment, and cure. The value of reporting would be enhanced if a standardized approach were used for generating CoCs. We have described the Consensus HCV CoC that we developed to address this need and have presented findings from Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, where it was piloted. We encourage the uptake of the Consensus HCV CoC as a global instrument for facilitating clear and consistent reporting via the World Health Organization (WHO) viral hepatitis monitoring platform and for ensuring accurate monitoring of progress toward WHO's 2030 hepatitis C elimination targets.</p

Plant functional trait change across a warming tundra biome

Accepted versionThe tundra is warming more rapidly than any other biome on Earth, and the potential ramifications are far-reaching because of global feedback effects between vegetation and climate. A better understanding of how environmental factors shape plant structure and function is crucial for predicting the consequences of environmental change for ecosystem functioning. Here we explore the biome-wide relationships between temperature, moisture and seven key plant functional traits both across space and over three decades of warming at 117 tundra locations. Spatial temperature–trait relationships were generally strong but soil moisture had a marked influence on the strength and direction of these relationships, highlighting the potentially important influence of changes in water availability on future trait shifts in tundra plant communities. Community height increased with warming across all sites over the past three decades, but other traits lagged far behind predicted rates of change. Our findings highlight the challenge of using space-for-time substitution to predict the functional consequences of future warming and suggest that functions that are tied closely to plant height will experience the most rapid change. They also reveal the strength with which environmental factors shape biotic communities at the coldest extremes of the planet and will help to improve projections of functional changes in tundra ecosystems with climate warming

Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries

Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV infections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Accurate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This requires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive individuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually

Global prevalence and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus infection in 2015 : A modelling study

Publisher Copyright: © 2017 Elsevier LtdBackground The 69th World Health Assembly approved the Global Health Sector Strategy to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection by 2030, which can become a reality with the recent launch of direct acting antiviral therapies. Reliable disease burden estimates are required for national strategies. This analysis estimates the global prevalence of viraemic HCV at the end of 2015, an update of—and expansion on—the 2014 analysis, which reported 80 million (95% CI 64–103) viraemic infections in 2013. Methods We developed country-level disease burden models following a systematic review of HCV prevalence (number of studies, n=6754) and genotype (n=11 342) studies published after 2013. A Delphi process was used to gain country expert consensus and validate inputs. Published estimates alone were used for countries where expert panel meetings could not be scheduled. Global prevalence was estimated using regional averages for countries without data. Findings Models were built for 100 countries, 59 of which were approved by country experts, with the remaining 41 estimated using published data alone. The remaining countries had insufficient data to create a model. The global prevalence of viraemic HCV is estimated to be 1·0% (95% uncertainty interval 0·8–1·1) in 2015, corresponding to 71·1 million (62·5–79·4) viraemic infections. Genotypes 1 and 3 were the most common cause of infections (44% and 25%, respectively). Interpretation The global estimate of viraemic infections is lower than previous estimates, largely due to more recent (lower) prevalence estimates in Africa. Additionally, increased mortality due to liver-related causes and an ageing population may have contributed to a reduction in infections. Funding John C Martin Foundation.publishersversionPeer reviewe