Zusammenfassung der internationalen energiewirtschaftlichen Situation und deren zukuenftige Entwicklungsaussichten

IIASA's Energy Systems Program has performed an extensive analysis of the long-range global energy problem. In 1981 "Energy in a Finite World" (IIASA's Energy Systems Program 1981) was published -- a report summarizing the major findings of an international team of experts working since 1972 under the leadership of Wolf Hafele. In the format of two scenarios -- a High and a Low scenario -- the factual basis for balancing demand and supply in a cooperative world was laid down. How to use this body of knowledge and information in the real world context -- competitive, full of conflicts, and highly discounting both in time and space -- was a spontaneous question that came up in the intense dialogue between the Energy Systems Program and many audiences in science, industry and policy making. This paper tries to capture and order some of the suggestions put forward in this dialogue, in order to apply a long-range and global perspective to short-term national decision making. The paper is presented in German; the English version is available as PP-81-014

The International Energy Situation and Prospects of its Further Developments

IIASA's Energy Systems Program has performed an extensive analysis of the long-range global energy problem. In 1981 "Energy in a Finite World" (IIASA's Energy Systems Program 1981) was published -- a report summarizing the major findings of an international team of experts working since 1972 under the leadership of Wolf Hafele. In the format of two scenarios -- a High and a Low scenario -- the factual basis for balancing demand and supply in a cooperative world was laid down. How to use this body of knowledge and information in the real world context -- competitive, full of conflicts, and highly discounting both in time and space -- was a spontaneous question that came up in the intense dialogue between the Energy Systems Program and many audiences in science, industry and policy making. This paper tries to capture and order some of the suggestions put forward in this dialogue, in order to apply a long-range and global perspective to short-term national decision making. The paper was published in German as PP-81-003 in February 1981. The conclusions then put forward seem to be supported by the political events that have occurred since, both by those in Egypt and more generally and recently in the Middle East. Default of updating of this paper to actual publication is therefore intended

Energy Strategies

The amount of fossil energy reserves and resources suggests a transition to an energy supply system that is based on a quasi-infinite fuel supply. Several options exist for this transition such as the nuclear breeder or solar power. Strategies for transitions have to meet a certain demand for energy. A simple but global scenario is given for such energy demand with emphasis on low demand in conjunction with fossil fuels. Consideration is given to the constraints of such fossil energy production and emphasis is put on the CO2 problem. This allows a rough understanding of the time scale of such transitions. In view of the timing of the transition the various options for quasi-infinite supplies of energy are considered and priorities of a number of physics tasks are conceived

Medium-Term Aspects of a Coal Revival: Two Case Studies. Report of the IIASA Coal Task Force

Analysis of the energy options open to mankind once cheap oil and gas resources have been exhausted is one of the main areas of research within the IIASA Energy Systems Program. This report summarizes the collaborative efforts of experts from British and German coal bodies in investigating potentials and problems of a medium-term revival of coal. The two countries were chosen as examples, because coal has played a central role in their industrial development and still possesses a major share in their supply balances. Based on the results of the two case studies, the ongoing work of the Coal Task Force will concentrate on questions of the future world coal market, on global environmental problems in the truly extensive use of coal, and in particular on the critical role of coal as an option for transition to a non-fossil global energy supply system. The findings, though based on a quite extended time horizon, point to a number of imminent questions with respect to research and development programs and national energy policy decisions

Which Way to Go? Observations Based on Discussion on Global Perspectives and Energy Strategies

This short paper is a glimpse of the recent lively discussion on securing future energy demand. The debate, which resorts to technological and economic arguments, uses mutually exclusive concepts, such as "hard" and "soft" technology, in order to differentiate between opposing approaches to the evaluation of technological benefits and risks. This is a summary of some conclusions that emerged from such discussions of D. Meadows, co-author of the Club of Rome study "Limits to Growth," Amory Lovins of "Friends of the Earth," and members of the Energy Systems Program. The paper concludes with a short list of research topics which could help clarify the implications of alternate paths

Nuclear Energy and its Alternatives

Irrespective of the type of primary energy considered, every large-scale use of primary energy has its specific disadvantages. The problem is therefore to select and combine the various types of primary energy in a way that is optimal in terms of economics and has acceptable side effects. In the medium term, coal is the only real alternative to nuclear energy, and in fact is its partner rather than a competitor. The large-scale use of solar energy opens up supra-regional perspectives such as the demand for land and the storage and transportation of energy. Secondary energy becomes a more important factor and hydrogen seems to be a better partner for solar energy than is electricity. The timely build-up of a modern secondary energy system is of importance for the longer-term energy supply requirements

On Energy and Economic Development

The future growth in the global demand for energy will come mainly from the less-developed countries. If the demand is to be satisfied, the transfer of technology from the developed to the less-developed countries is essential