Atención a las advertencias: se prevén más desplazamientos para Afganistán

Actualmente existen muchas pruebas que apuntan hacia la probabilidad de que se produzca otra ola de desplazamientos en Afganistán. Ignorar estas advertencias y no actuar en consecuencia podría suponer pagar un alto precio en el futuro, tanto a nivel financiero como en términos humanitarios

Realidades urbanas de mujeres y niñas desplazadas

Un creciente número de PDI vive en asentamientos informales en los principales centros urbanos de Afganistán, sin embargo, las formas en las cuales las mujeres y niñas desplazadas son vulnerables en tales asentamientos no son suficientemente entendidas y abordadas

Working with the Taliban: from the first to the second Emirate

Nearly two years after the Taliban seized power in Kabul, in August 2021, the international aid community continued to search for workable approaches to deal with the new situation. Afghanistan’s deepening economic and humanitarian crisis called for major assistance, but the relationship between major donors and the Taliban de facto authorities had settled into a deeply adversarial mode. It resembled in many respects the relationship between the international aid community and the Taliban during the first Emirate (1996–2001). The story of that limited and difficult interaction – mostly consisting of humanitarian aid in a process that swung between confrontation and creative, though modest, compromises – is worth recalling for the insights it holds for the present. This article examines the patterns of that interaction, the results on the ground and the implications for the Western relationship with the present Taliban Emirate

Towards the Development of an Early Warning/Response Network

This article outlines a proposal put forth by the Prevention/Early Warning Unit at the Centrefor Refugee Studies, York University. The article describes the problems with early warning and how an early warning network (EWNET) can address these existing difficulties. This EWNET is described as an academic- NGO-policy consortium that over a period of a few years will become self-sufficient through the involvement of business. Utilizing the Internet, EWNET will collect information from all over the world, analyze and disseminate such information. The link to policy makers and the importance of properly communicating alerts are discussed. While a central management team oversees EWNET, there are several units working on administration, sales and research. Furthermore, the research unit is broken down into indicator, communication, response and area study research; the latter being linked to twenty crises area nodes. This structure assures that EWNET will comprise a broad resource network as well as the links necessary for sending uniform early warning signals.Rédigé sous l'égide de l'Unité pour la détection et la prévention des conflits du Centre d'études sur les Réfugies de l'Université York, cet article fait état des principaux problèmes existant en matière d'alerte préventive et propose la création d'un consortium réunissant des experts oeuvrant dans le domine de la recherche et au sein d'organisations non-gouvernementales afin de faire face à ces difficultés. Etabli sur Internet, le Réseau EWNET, destiné à être autonome sur le plan financier d'ici quelques années grâce à l'apport de capitaux privés, doit rassembler, analyser et disséminer des informations en provenance de toutes les parties du monde en matière d'alerte rapide et de prévention des conflits. Structuré autour d'une équipe principale de supervision, EWNET est constitué de plusieurs sous-unités fonctionnelles travaillant sur les aspects de l'administration, du financement et de la recherche d'indicateurs, la communication de l'information, la formulation de réponses aux problèmes rencontré et l'étude de situations régionales dans une vingtaine de régions conflictuelles. Cette structure vise à assurer au réseau une capacité d'action globale tout en lui garantissant la cohésion nécessaire à l'envoi effectif de signaux d'alerte. Les problèmes rencontrés dans la réalisation de cette tâche ainsi que la question des liens à établir et du travail de sensibilisation à effectuer auprès des décideurs politiques sont aussi évoqués

Stakeholder Conflict in Mergers and Acquisitions and the Importance of Post-Merger Integration

This doctoral thesis consists of three papers. The first paper theoretically reapplies Hirshleifer's (1991) paradox of power to stakeholder conflicts as a primary source of synergy impairment in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). It further extends the theoretical framework through focus on post-merger integration (PMI) as a mitigating factor in post-M&A value-decreasing combats. It outlines that mergers aiming for synergy can cause conflictual instead of cooperative actions within primary stakeholder groups due to violation of their interests. If acquirer management fails to counteract with high-quality PMI measures, the transaction will destroy stakeholder wealth due to deterioration of synergy. A stakeholder-oriented PMI is worth conducting up to the point where the net merger synergy still exceeds unresolved synergy impairment plus the direct cost of PMI. Applying the Cournot-Nash solution concept, the theory confirms that synergy potential grows with increasing target size. This means that so-called “merger of equals” have the highest synergy expectation and at the same time the lowest risk of synergy impairment due to missing incentives for the target stakeholders to oppose an acquisition. Nevertheless minor relative deal size encourages stakeholder conflict due to beneficial wealth transfers in favor of the target firm, provided that the conflict does not escalate. The second paper analyzes 1,035 effective US mergers and acquisitions in the period 2005-2014. It finds a significant negative long-run financial and operating performance measured by buy-and-hold abnormal returns and abnormal operating cash flow returns. On average, US acquirers achieve a -8.2% stock price underperformance and a decline in pre-tax operating cash flow returns of -3.1% in the subsequent 36 months. The paper confirms that cash-financed transactions and the takeover of private targets positively impact M&A profitability. Controlling for certain firm and deal characteristics, further determinants are identified and tested which firstly, negatively influence synergy realization in general, and secondly, encourage post-merger stakeholder conflicts that reinforce synergy impairment, or even lead to dis-synergy. Based on robust results of multivariate regression analyses on acquirer performance, this paper concludes that the main post-merger value-influencing factors are integration capacity, complementarity of economic environment, and decisiveness of stakeholder conflict. This ultimately justifies the theoretical foundation of the existence of post-merger stakeholder conflicts and the need for a well-managed PMI as a mitigating mechanism to improve M&A performance. The third paper empirically examines the post-merger stakeholder conflict hypothesis in M&A by applying a sample of 425 effective US transactions from 2005-2014. The theory claims that potential violations of primary stakeholder interests cause non-cooperative stakeholder actions and an impairment of merger synergy. A stakeholder-oriented post-merger integration (PMI) may serve as a value enhancing mechanism to mitigate the negative impact on long-term merger outcomes. The theory is tested by showing that a high-quality PMI with focus on the four dimensions of management attention, stakeholder information, integration support, and risk awareness (all measured by textual analysis of annual reports and publicly available information), on average results in a 22% higher acquirer stock return and an increase in operating performance of 4% over a three-year period compared to a portfolio of reference firms matched by size and book-to-market ratio. This paper also finds, as a result of high-quality integration, that improved employee productivity and customer demand positively influence long-run M&A performance. Finally, it is shown that acquirer synergy expectation, pre-deal M&A activity, growth prospects, as well as deal size drive PMI quality

Synergy in Early Warning Conterence: Background

This article has information on the conference Synergy in Early Warning organized recently by the Prevention/ Early Warning Unit in Toronto, Canada. Included are: background on the issues, a brief outline with the abstracts of the papers delivered and the contact addresses of the authors.Cet article fournit des informations sur le colloque Synergie en Alerte Préventive organisé récemment par l'Unité Prévention/Alerte Préventive de Toronto, Canada. Y figurent: l'historique des problèmes, un synopsis du colloque incluant les résumés des communications présentées, et les adresses permettant de contacter les auteurs

Issues in Quantitative Modelling in the Early Warning of Refugee Migration

This article discusses the problems associated with indicator analysis for the purpose of early warning. While the authors endorse the idea of quantitative EWM, they are sceptical of the understanding that many have of what EW analysis entails. In this article, they identify the limits of quantitative EW analysis and address many of the major problems that confront those who are committed to quantitative EW analysis. In particular, the authors discuss the following issues that need to be addressed when engaging in quantitative early warning analysis: the problem of "late warning;" problems of contextual sensitivity; problems of temporal development; data availability and measurement; and problems with the definition of the appropriate unit of analysis.Cet article traite des problèmes rattachés à l'utilisation d'indicateurs en matière d'alerte préventive. Tout en faisant état de la pertinence de l'élaboration de modèle quantitatifs, les auteurs émettent des doutes à propos des conclusions obtenues à partir de ces analyses. Les limites de ces modèles et les principaux obstacles rencontrés dans la conduite de ces analyses sont identifiés. Les problèmes rattachés à une alerte lancée en retard, au caractère évolutif des situations conflictuelles, à la disponibilité et à l'évaluation de l'information, à la définition et au choix de la méthode d'analyse appropriée ainsi qu'à l'article et à la susceptibilité des parties impliquées sont évoqués de manière particulière