Fuel-economy distributions of purchased new vehicles in the U.S.: model years 2008 and 2014

We have recently shown that the average EPA-rated fuel economy of purchased, new, light-duty vehicles in the U.S. improved from 20.8 mpg for model year 2008 vehicles to 25.3 mpg for model year 2014 vehicles. This report provides information about the changes in the sales-weighted distributions of fuel economy for the same model years. The findings indicate that the improvements are also present throughout the distributions of vehicle fuel economy. For example, (1) 22.2% of model year 2008 vehicles had fuel economy lower than 16.0 mpg, as compared with only 3.2% of model year 2014 vehicles, and (2) only 1.3% of model year 2008 vehicles had fuel economy of 32.0 mpg or higher, as compared with 16.7% of model year 2014 vehicles.Sustainable Worldwide Transportationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/110907/1/103159.pdfDescription of 103159.pdf : Final repor

What do current owners of hybrids and non-hybrids think about hybrids?

This survey examined the views of U.S. motorists concerning hybrid vehicles, both in terms of their current vehicles and future vehicles. The survey yielded completed responses from 1,002 owners of a hybrid and 1,038 owners of a non-hybrid. The main findings related to current owners of a hybrid are as follows: - The main reason given for owning a hybrid is the environmental impact; females are more concerned than males about this aspect of hybrid ownership. - Only a small percentage of respondents report any hybrid-specific problems. - About 4/5 intend to buy a hybrid again for their next vehicle; about 1/3 of them intend to buy a plug-in hybrid. - Out of those that do not intend to buy a hybrid for their next vehicle, about 1/6 are lanning to get an electric vehicle.The main findings related to current owners of a non-hybrid are as follows: - The most frequent reasons given for not getting a hybrid as the current vehicle are not considering hybrids at all and the initial cost. - About 1/3 of respondents intend to buy a hybrid for their next vehicle.In looking ahead to the future, this report also contains a table that summarizes 14 aspects of 12 different fuel sources (including hydrogen) that will likely influence driver acceptance.ExxonMobil Corporationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109078/1/103025.pdfDescription of 103025.pdf : Final repor

Proactive or Reactive? Optimal Management of an Invasive Forest Pest in a Spatial Framework

This paper offers a preliminary investigation into the conditions under which it might be optimal to engage in proactive management of a non-timber forest resource in the presence of an invasive species whose spread is unaffected by management action. Proactive management is defined as treating an uninfected area in order to encourage healthy ecosystem function, given that the arrival of the invasive is inevitable. Inspired by the problem of white pine blister rust in the Rocky Mountain west, the model was solved under varying assumptions concerning the scale of management action, benefit and costs, the discount rate, and uncertainty of spread. Results showed that proactive strategies tended to be optimal when, ceteris paribus, a) more resources are available for treatment; b) the costs of treatment are rapidly increasing in forest health, or conversely, the benefits of healthy and unhealthy stands are relatively similar; and c) the discount rate is low. The introduction of uncertainty did not significantly affect the likelihood of a proactive management strategy being optimal, but did show that the conditional probabilities of infection play important role in the decision of which uninfected stand should be treated if a choice is available to the manager.Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

A comparison of CAFE standards and actual CAFE performance of new light-duty vehicles: an update through model year 2014

In August 2012, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced the final standard governing new-vehicle fuel economy for model years 2017 through 2025. The new standard continues the current system of incremental increases in Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements for new light-duty vehicles each model year, based on targeted decreases averaging approximately 5% per year in CO2 output per mile. This report compares the recent improvements in fuel economy with the projected CAFE performance levels anticipated by NHTSA. This report updates the analysis in a previous report (Schoettle and Sivak, 2013) by including model year 2014 vehicles. Recent trends in CAFE performance, when compared with the performance levels projected to be achieved by NHTSA under the current standards, indicate that achieved CAFE performance has exceeded these anticipated levels for each of the 2012, 2013, and 2014 model years—the first three years that the current standard has been in effect. Additionally, achieved CAFE performance has consistently increased annually from model year 2008 through model year 2014. If the current trends in annual improvements continue, future achieved CAFE performance is expected to continue meeting or exceeding the projected performance levels (and desired GHG reductions) contained in the latest CAFE standards.The University of Michigan Sustainable Worldwide Transportationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109262/1/103063.pd

Public opinion about self-driving vehicles in China, India, Japan, the U.S., the U.K., and Australia

This report documents a new study of public opinion about self-driving vehicles in China, India, and Japan. The survey yielded completed responses from 610 respondents in China, 527 respondents in India, and 585 respondents in Japan. For comparison, the report also includes recently released findings from the same survey in the U.S., the U.K., and Australia. The main findings (applicable to each of the six countries) are as follows: The majority of respondents had previously heard of autonomous or self-driving vehicles, had a positive initial opinion of the technology (or neutral in the case of Japan), and had high expectations about the benefits of the technology. However, the majority of respondents expressed high levels of concern about riding in selfdriving vehicles, safety issues related to equipment or system failure, and self-driving vehicles not performing as well as human drivers. Respondents also expressed high levels of concern about vehicles without driver controls; selfdriving vehicles moving while unoccupied; and self-driving commercial vehicles, buses, and taxis. The majority of respondents expressed a desire to have this technology in their vehicles. However, a majority was also unwilling to pay extra for the technology (except for respondents in China and India). In comparison to the respondents in the U.S., the U.K., and Australia, respondents in China and India had more positive initial opinions of self-driving vehicles, expressed greater interest in having such technology on their personal vehicles, and were willing to pay the most for it. Japanese respondents, on the other hand, generally had more neutral initial opinions about self-driving technology and were willing to pay the least for it. The main implications of these results are that the respondents in the six countries surveyed, while expressing high levels of concern about riding in vehicles equipped with this technology, mostly feel positive about self-driving vehicles, have optimistic expectations of the benefits, and generally desire self-driving-vehicle technology (though a majority in four out of the six countries surveyed are not willing to pay extra for such technology at this time).The University of Michigan Sustainable Worldwide Transportationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109433/1/103139.pd

Reconstruction of the medial patellofemoral ligament for painful patellar subluxation in distal torsional malalignment: a case report

Complex two-level rotational malalignment of the lower extremity can cause maltracking of the patella with anterior knee pain. Double derotation osteotomy would correct the underlying pathology. However, it carries a high risk of complications such as nerve and vessel damage. We report a case of rotational malalignment in the femur and the tibia associated with trochlear dysplasia, which causes painful patellar instability. The patient was successfully treated with reconstruction of the medial patellofemoral ligament and lateral release. Although the malrotation was not addressed, the position of the patella was corrected, and no dislocation occurred during a follow-up of 10month

Recent fuel economy trends for new vehicles in the United States

This report documents the improvements in fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles in the U.S. from 2008 to 2012. The analyses were performed both unweighted (based only on the range of vehicle models offered for sale) and weighted by sales (based on actual consumer purchases). The information is presented both in terms of miles per gallon (mpg) and gallons per 100 miles (gphm). The results show that, overall, there was an increase of 1.7 miles per gallon for newly purchased vehicles during the period examined. The report presents detailed breakdowns of fuel-economy changes by the following vehicle characteristics and subcategories: cars versus light trucks, vehicle size class, transmission type, number of engine cylinders, drive type, fuel type, and hybrid versus conventional vehicles. The report also discusses the nonlinear relationship between improvements in fuel economy and fuel saved.The University of Michigan Sustainable Worldwide Transportationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/89864/1/102797.pd

A survey of public opinion about autonomous and self-driving vehicles in the U.S., the U.K., and Australia

This survey examined public opinion regarding self-driving-vehicle technology in three major English-speaking countries—the U.S., the U.K., and Australia. The survey yielded useable responses from 1,533 persons 18 years and older. The main findings (applicable to each of the three countries) were as follows: The majority of respondents had previously heard of autonomous or self-driving vehicles, had a positive initial opinion of the technology, and had high expectations about the benefits of the technology. However, the majority of respondents expressed high levels of concern about riding in self-driving vehicles, security issues related to self-driving vehicles, and self-driving vehicle not performing as well as actual drivers. Respondents also expressed high levels of concern about vehicles without driver controls; self-driving vehicles moving while unoccupied; and self-driving commercial vehicles, busses, and taxis. The majority of respondents expressed a desire to have this technology in their vehicle. However, a majority was also unwilling to pay extra for the technology; those who were willing to pay offered similar amounts in each country. Females expressed higher levels of concern with self-driving vehicles than did males. Similarly, females were more cautious about their expectations concerning benefits from using self-driving vehicles. In comparison to the respondents in the U.K. and Australia, respondents in the U.S. expressed greater concern about riding in self-driving vehicles, data privacy, interacting with non-self-driving vehicles, self-driving vehicles not driving as well as human drivers in general, and riding in a self-driving vehicle with no driver controls available. The main implications of these results are that motorists and the general public in the three countries surveyed, while expressing high levels of concern about riding in vehicles equipped with this technology, feel positive about self-driving vehicles, have optimistic expectations of the benefits, and generally desire self-driving-vehicle technology when it becomes available (though a majority is not willing to pay extra for such technology at this time).Sustainable Worldwide Transportationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/108384/1/103024.pdfDescription of 103024.pdf : final repor

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Inverted Spectrum

It is possible for a person and their environment to be physically identical each day and yet the representational content of their beliefs about color are inverted. Each day they utter the same words, ‘Wow! The colors of everything have switched again today.’ In uttering these words, they express a different proposition each day. This supports the view held by Reichenbach and Carnap that when it comes to representations of colored objects, relations of similarity and difference are fundamental. There are no such things as colors like ‘redness’ and ‘greenness’ apart from the particular things we call red and green

Looking ahead: forecasting and planning for the longer-range future, April 1, 2, and 3, 2005

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This was the Center's spring Conference that took place during April 1, 2, and 3, 2005.The conference allowed for many highly esteemed scholars and professionals from a broad range of fields to come together to discuss strategies designed for the 21st century and beyond. The speakers and discussants covered a broad range of subjects including: long-term policy analysis, forecasting for business and investment, the National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2020 report, Europe’s transition from the Marshal plan to the EU, forecasting global transitions, foreign policy planning, and forecasting for defense