Shifting horizons: assessing macro trends before, during, and following systemic banking crises

This paper assesses the trends of some main macroeconomic and macro-financial variables across different time horizons related to systemic banking crises. Specifically, by gradually shifting the observation horizon of the same statistical model across time, it observes how these variables are associated with banking crises in the past, present and future. The associations vary considerably when shifting horizons. Domestic house price growth increases the probability of observing a crisis in the future, but its effect disappears when moving closer to a crisis. The inverse holds true for the effect of the global credit gap, while global credit growth consistently and significantly increases the probability of a future banking crisis. Also, banking crises seem to be spatially correlated in the very short run. In all, the results can help policy makers by shedding light on the temporal horizon of the variables they monitor in addition to evaluating their predictive power

Students’ engagement with learning theory

This paper reflects on a module on ‘Teaching and Learning Interactions’, presented as part of the Rhodes University Advanced Certificate in Education (Environmental Education).The module is designed to help students use theoretical logic to enhance (not replace) their practical logic of how teaching and learning takes place. Data was analysed from three teaching and learning activities in the module. After the first participatory activity on water and sanitation, students narrated what teaching and learning had taken place using language available from their prior experiences. In a second activity students were introduced to explanations of learning, provided by learning theorists. In the third activity students analysed a case study, using a variety of questions relating to teaching and learning. They then had to consider these same questions in the light of a participatory on-course teaching and learning activity. The paper reflects on how students have used understandings of the nature of reality, the construction of knowledge, the use of language, situated learning, action competence and social change, in order to narrate their teaching and learning experiences on the ACE(EE) course. Through this, the paper trials a reflexive approach to the teaching of learning theory in environmental education

Wat mankeert de psychiatrie?

Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van Gewoon Hoogleraar in de Klinische Psychiatrie aan de Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, op woensdag 13 november 198

Intra-industry trade between CESEE countries and the EU15

The rapid increase in intra-industry trade (IIT) between the EU15 and Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union indicates a structural change in the nature of trade in CESEE and a new process of transition and real convergence to the EU. Using a product-level trade flows database and employing linear and non-linear panel data specifications, this paper assesses the determinants of intra-industry trade between the EU15 as the main trading block and CESEE, which are further divided into the ‘new’ EU member states (NMS) and the EU candidate countries and potential candidates (CCPC). The analysis highlights the importance of intra-industry trade in terms of achieving real convergence. The paper finds that there exist some common factors driving IIT across the sample, such as the corporate tax rate, the flexibility of exchange rate regimes and the quality of political institutions. However, the determinants of IIT between NMS and EU15 countries deviate considerably from those between CCPC and EU15 countries

External competitiveness of EU candidate countries

As the current financial crisis has shown, macroeconomic imbalances such as persistent current account and trade deficits, can seriously undermine a country’s resilience to economic shocks. Maintaining and enhancing external competitiveness has thus become of increasing concern, particularly to European Union (EU) candidate countries whose economic growth models have been challenged in recent years. Drawing on previous studies, this paper assesses developments in the external competitiveness of EU candidate countries between 1999 and 2011. Taking a broad approach to the issue of competitiveness, the paper considers various indicators of both short and long-term competitiveness, including those related to domestic prices and costs, export performance, and institutional and structural issues. In the context of EU integration, comparisons are drawn with developments in the EU12. We find that, during the pre-crisis period, all candidate countries experienced robust export market growth, but also suffered losses in price and cost competitiveness. In terms of export characteristics, progress has been heterogeneous and also fairly slow when compared with the EU12. All candidate countries have increased their number of export products and trading partners, but only a few have been able to export more complex products. As regards structural issues such as corruption and bureaucratic efficiency, all countries have performed quite poorly with the exception of Iceland

The effectiveness of schools-based National Arbor Week activities in greening of urban homesteads : a case study of Grahamstown, South Africa

Arbor Day, or Week, is a well-established greening initiative worldwide, focusing on tree planting and the benefits thereof. Frequently most effort is targeted at institutions such as schools and community groups. Yet there has been limited assessment of the success of Arbor Day, or Week, activities both at the schools, or the wider dissemination in neighbouring communities and suburbs. The objective of this study was to determine the influence of school-based Arbor Week activities on learners’ home-based practices regarding tree planting and urban forestry. Learners from three schools in Grahamstown, South Africa, with good Arbor Week participation, were assessed on their tree planting knowledge. The learners’ parents were also interviewed to determine whether the information obtained by the learners at school was taken home. A control group consisting of people with no children or very young children was also assessed. This study found that Arbor Week activities were, for the most part, successfully taught in the case study schools, and most of the learners stated that their knowledge of trees and their benefits came from their school activities. However, many learners could not remember the activities in which their schools partook the previous year. Whilst most learners were aware of the importance of trees, few had encouraged tree planting at home. However, over one-fifth of adults claimed that their knowledge of the benefits of trees was as a consequence of Arbor Day activities when they were young. Numerous constraints to tree planting were provided by learners and both the adult groups, the two most frequent being limited space and falling leaves making their yards untidy. External organisations should become more actively involved and provide much needed support systems if greening initiatives are to reach the wider community

Setting countercyclical capital buffers based on early warning models: would it work?

This paper assesses the usefulness of private credit variables and other macrofinancial and banking sector indicators for the setting of Basel III / CRD IV countercyclical capital buffers (CCBs) in a multivariate early warning model framework, using data for 23 EU Members States from 1982 Q2 to 2012 Q3. We find that in addition to credit variables, other domestic and global financial factors such as equity and house prices as well as banking sector variables help to predict vulnerable states of the economy in EU Member States. We therefore suggest that policy makers take a broad approach in their analytical models supporting CCB policy measures

Exploring a Knowledge-focused Trajectory for Researching Environmental Learning in the South African Curriculum

This paper explores the past twenty years of environmental learning in the South African curriculum in order to consider how one might best research a knowledge focus within the Fundisa for Change national teacher education programme. In exploring this knowledge focus, the paper draws on international  literature. It also extensively, but not exclusively, draws on two key publications which informed the 2002 and the 2011 curriculum changes in South Africa. The paper draws on  social realist curriculum theory, underpinned by critical realism. This theoretical perspective, which includes Bernstein’s pedagogic device and particularly  recontextualisation of knowledge across the pedagogical landscape, provides a language of description for critically reviewing knowledge and environmental  learning. In  particular, the review develops five perspectives on environmental knowledge as it pertains to curriculum which include:• Perspective #1) new environmental knowledge in the curriculum;• Perspective #2) environmental knowledge in local and global contexts;• Perspective # 3) dynamic knowledge for open-ended and futuristic thinking;• Perspective #4) depth and complexity of environmental knowledge; and• Perspective #5) combining discipline-specific core knowledge and skills with a systems perspective.The paper argues for a re-emphasis and review of new environmental knowledge and learning support materials. It suggests a consideration of context-rich but not context-bound explorations of local and global environmental issues and the need for adopting open-ended and futuristic thinking in the context of the dynamism of environmental knowledge. This involves exploring systems of meaning and structures of knowledge in dealing with the complexity of environmental knowledge and acknowledging the challenges of a transformative ideology within such a complex knowledge system. Additionally the paper argues for creative ways of working across disciplines to develop better understanding of discipline-specific  concepts and their potential to contribute to meaningful learning. The paper concludes by suggesting a research trajectory for future environmental education research in the context of the new South African Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement (CAPS) extending the emphasis in this paper on the official recontextualising field, to fields across the entire pedagogic device

Students’ Engagement with Learning Theory

This paper reflects on a module on ‘Teaching and Learning Interactions’, presented as part of the Rhodes University Advanced Certificate in Education (Environmental Education).The module is designed to help students use theoretical logic to enhance (not replace) their practical logic of how teaching and learning takes place. Data was analysed from three teaching and learning activities in the module. After the first participatory activity on water and sanitation, students narrated what teaching and learning had taken place using language available from their prior experiences. In a second activity students were introduced to explanations of learning, provided by learning theorists. In the third activity students analysed a case study, using a variety of questions relating to teaching and learning. They then had to consider these same questions in the light of a participatory on-course teaching and learning activity. The paper reflects on how students have used understandings of the nature of reality, the construction of knowledge, the use of language, situated learning, action competence and social change, in order to narrate their teaching and learning experiences on the ACE(EE) course. Through this, the paper trials a reflexive approach to the teaching of learning theory in environmental education