Relative Roles of Climate Sensitivity and Forcing in Defining the Ocean Circulation Response to Climate Change

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO2 forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO2-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO2-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO2 stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.This research was supported in part by the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessments Program of the National Science Foundation, Grant ATM-9909139, by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (JPSPGC)

Estimating Probability Distributions from Complex Models with Bifurcations: The Case of Ocean Circulation Collapse

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).Studying the uncertainty in computationally expensive models has required the development of specialized methods, including alternative sampling techniques and response surface approaches. However, existing techniques for response surface development break down when the model being studied exhibits discontinuities or bifurcations. One uncertain variable that exhibits this behavior is the thermohaline circulation (THC) as modeled in three-dimensional general circulation models. This is a critical uncertainty for climate change policy studies. We investigate the development of a response surface for studying uncertainty in THC using the Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method, a stochastic technique using expansions in orthogonal polynomials. We show that this approach is unable to reasonably approximate the model response. We demonstrate an alternative representation that accurately simulates the model’s response, using a basis function with properties similar to the model’s response over the uncertain parameter space. This indicates useful directions for future methodological improvements.This research was supported in part by the Methods and Models for Integrated Assessments Program of the National Science Foundation, Grant ATM-9909139, by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant Nos. DE-FG02-02ER63468 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (JPSPGC)

Exploring N-acyl-4-azatetracyclo[5.3.2.0.0]dodec-11-enes as 11β-HSD1 Inhibitors

We recently found that a cyclohexanecarboxamide derived from 4-azatetracyclo[5.3.2.02,6.08,10]dodec-11-ene displayed low nanomolar inhibition of 11β-HSD1. In continuation of our efforts to discover potent and selective 11β-HSD1 inhibitors, herein we explored several replacements for the cyclohexane ring. Some derivatives exhibited potent inhibitory activity against human 11β-HSD1, although with low selectivity over the isoenzyme 11β-HSD2, and poor microsomal stability

Optical Spectroscopy of Galactic Cirrus Clouds: Extended Red Emission in the Diffuse Interstellar Medium

We present initial results from the first optical spectroscopic survey of high latitude Galactic cirrus clouds. The observed shape of the cirrus spectrum does not agree with that of scattered ambient Galactic starlight. This mismatch can be explained by the presence of Extended Red Emission (ERE) in the diffuse interstellar medium, as found in many other astronomical objects, probably caused by photoluminescence of hydrocarbons. The integrated ERE intensity, I_ERE \approx 1.2 x 10^{-5} erg s^{-1} cm^{-2} sr^{-1}, is roughly a third of the scattered light intensity, consistent with recent color measurements of diffuse Galactic light. The peak of the cirrus ERE (lambda_{0} \sim 6000 AA) is shifted towards short (bluer) wavelengths compared to the ERE in sources excited by intense ultraviolet radiation, such as HII regions (lambda_{0} sim 8000 AA); such a trend is seen in laboratory experiments on hydrogenated amorphous carbon films.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Suicide inhibition of alpha-oxamine synthases:structures of the covalent adducts of 8-amino-7-oxononanoate synthase with trifluoroalanine

The suicide inhibition of the α-oxamine synthases by the substrate analog, L-trifluoroalanine was investigated. The inhibition resulted in the formation of a complex with loss of all three fluorine atoms. Decarboxylation and loss of fluoride occurred immediately after aldimine formation. The inherent flexibility could allow the difluorinated intermediate complex to adopt a suitable conformation. Decarboxylation in the normal mechanism occurs after formation of the ketoacid intermediate.link_to_subscribed_fulltex

Introduction: looking beyond the walls

In its consideration of the remarkable extent and variety of non-university researchers, this book takes a broader view of ‘knowledge’ and ‘research’ than in the many hot debates about today’s knowledge society, ‘learning age’, or organisation of research. It goes beyond the commonly held image of ‘knowledge’ as something produced and owned by the full-time experts to take a look at those engaged in active knowledge building outside the university walls

Inorganic chlorine partitioning in the summer lower stratosphere: Modeled and measured [ClONO_2]/[HCl] during POLARIS

We examine inorganic chlorine (Cl_y,) partitioning in the summer lower stratosphere using in situ ER-2 aircraft observations made during the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) campaign. New steady state and numerical models estimate [ClONO_2]/[HCl] using currently accepted photochemistry. These models are tightly constrained by observations with OH (parameterized as a function of solar zenith angle) substituting for modeled HO_2 chemistry. We find that inorganic chlorine photochemistry alone overestimates observed [ClONO_2]/[HCl] by approximately 55–60% at mid and high latitudes. On the basis of POLARIS studies of the inorganic chlorine budget, [ClO]/[ClONO_2], and an intercomparison with balloon observations, the most direct explanation for the model-measurement discrepancy in Cl_y, partitioning is an error in the reactions, rate constants, and measured species concentrations linking HCl and ClO (simulated [ClO]/[HCl] too high) in combination with a possible systematic error in the ER-2 ClONO_2 measurement (too low). The high precision of our simulation (±15% 1σ for [ClONO_2]/[HCl], which is compared with observations) increases confidence in the observations, photolysis calculations, and laboratory rate constants. These results, along with other findings, should lead to improvements in both the accuracy and precision of stratospheric photochemical models

Development of a Series of Kynurenine 3-Monooxygenase Inhibitors Leading to a Clinical Candidate for the Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis

Recently, we reported a novel role for KMO in the pathogenesis of acute pancreatitis (AP). A number of inhibitors of kynurenine 3-monooxygenase (KMO) have previously been described as potential treatments for neurodegenerative conditions and particularly for Huntington's disease. However, the inhibitors reported to date have insufficient aqueous solubility relative to their cellular potency to be compatible with the intravenous (iv) dosing route required in AP. We have identified and optimized a novel series of high affinity KMO inhibitors with favorable physicochemical properties. The leading example is exquisitely selective, has low clearance in two species, prevents lung and kidney damage in a rat model of acute pancreatitis, and is progressing into preclinical development.</p