Robustness of approaches to ROC curve modeling under misspecification of the underlying probability model

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a tool of particular use in disease status classification with a continuous medical test (marker). A variety of statistical regression models have been proposed for the comparison of ROC curves for different markers across covariate groups. A full parametric modeling of the marker distribution has been generally found to be overly reliant on the strong parametric assumptions. Pepe (2003) has instead developed parametric models for the ROC curve that induce a semi-parametric model for the marker distributions. The estimating equations proposed for use in these ROC-GLM models may differ from commonly used estimating equations in those same probability models. In this paper, we investigate the analysis of the power ROC curve when based on the parametric exponential model and the broader semi-parametric proportional hazards probability model. In the case of the latter, we consider estimating equations derived from the usual partial likelihood methods in time-to-event analyses and the ROC-GLM approach of Pepe, et al. In exploring the robustness of these ROC analysis approaches to violations of the distributional assumptions, we find that the ROC-GLM estimating equation provides an extra measure of robustness when compared to the Cox proportional hazards estimating equation

BFORE: The B-mode Foreground Experiment

The B-mode Foreground Experiment (BFORE) is a proposed NASA balloon project designed to make optimal use of the sub-orbital platform by concentrating on three dust foreground bands (270, 350, and 600 GHz) that complement ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) programs. BFORE will survey ~1/4 of the sky with 1.7 - 3.7 arcminute resolution, enabling precise characterization of the Galactic dust that now limits constraints on inflation from CMB B-mode polarization measurements. In addition, BFORE's combination of frequency coverage, large survey area, and angular resolution enables science far beyond the critical goal of measuring foregrounds. BFORE will constrain the velocities of thousands of galaxy clusters, provide a new window on the cosmic infrared background, and probe magnetic fields in the interstellar medium. We review the BFORE science case, timeline, and instrument design, which is based on a compact off-axis telescope coupled to >10,000 superconducting detectors.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, conference proceedings published in Journal of Low Temperature Physic

Deconstructing the Kaplan-Meier curve: Quantification of treatment effect using the treatment effect process

In studies of survival and its association with treatment and other prognostic variables, elapsed time alone will often show itself to be among the strongest, if not the strongest, of the predictor variables. Kaplan-Meier curves will show the overall survival of each group and the general differences between groups due to treatment. However, the time-dependent nature of treatment effects is not always immediately transparent from these curves. More sophisticated tools are needed to spotlight the treatment effects. An important tool in this context is the treatment effect process. This tool can be potent in revealing the complex myriad of ways in which treatment can affect survival time. We look at a recently published study in which the outcome was relapse-free survival, and we illustrate how the use of the treatment effect process can provide a much deeper understanding of the relationship between time and treatment in this trial

Laser Cooling of Optically Trapped Molecules

Calcium monofluoride (CaF) molecules are loaded into an optical dipole trap (ODT) and subsequently laser cooled within the trap. Starting with magneto-optical trapping, we sub-Doppler cool CaF and then load $150(30)$ CaF molecules into an ODT. Enhanced loading by a factor of five is obtained when sub-Doppler cooling light and trapping light are on simultaneously. For trapped molecules, we directly observe efficient sub-Doppler cooling to a temperature of $60(5)$ $\mu\text{K}$. The trapped molecular density of $8(2)\times10^7$ cm$^{-3}$ is an order of magnitude greater than in the initial sub-Doppler cooled sample. The trap lifetime of 750(40) ms is dominated by background gas collisions.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Confirming the Primarily Smooth Structure of the Vega Debris Disk at Millimeter Wavelengths

Clumpy structure in the debris disk around Vega has been previously reported at millimeter wavelengths and attributed to concentrations of dust grains trapped in resonances with an unseen planet. However, recent imaging at similar wavelengths with higher sensitivity has disputed the observed structure. We present three new millimeter wavelength observations that help to resolve the puzzling and contradictory observations. We have observed the Vega system with the Submillimeter Array (SMA) at a wavelength of 880 μm and an angular resolution of 5"; with the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy (CARMA) at a wavelength of 1.3 mm and an angular resolution of 5"; and with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) at a wavelength of 3.3 mm and angular resolution of 10". Despite high sensitivity and short baselines, we do not detect the Vega debris disk in either of the interferometric data sets (SMA and CARMA), which should be sensitive at high significance to clumpy structure based on previously reported observations. We obtain a marginal (3σ) detection of disk emission in the GBT data; the spatial distribution of the emission is not well constrained.We analyze the observations in the context of several different models, demonstrating that the observations are consistent with a smooth, broad, axisymmetric disk with inner radius 20–100 AU and width ≾50 AU. The interferometric data require that at least half of the 860 μm emission detected by previous single-dish observations with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope be distributed axisymmetrically, ruling out strong contributions from flux concentrations on spatial scales of ≾100 AU. These observations support recent results from the Plateau de Bure Interferometer indicating that previous detections of clumpy structure in the Vega debris disk were spurious

An open source, FPGA-based LeKID readout for BLAST-TNG: Pre-flight results

We present a highly frequency multiplexed readout for large-format superconducting detector arrays intended for use in the next generation of balloon-borne and space-based sub-millimeter and far-infrared missions. We will demonstrate this technology on the upcoming NASA Next Generation Balloon-borne Large Aperture Sub-millimeter Telescope (BLAST-TNG) to measure the polarized emission of Galactic dust at wavelengths of 250, 350 and 500 microns. The BLAST-TNG receiver incorporates the first arrays of Lumped Element Kinetic Inductance Detectors (LeKID) along with the first microwave multiplexing readout electronics to fly in a space-like environment and will significantly advance the TRL for these technologies. After the flight of BLAST-TNG, we will continue to improve the performance of the detectors and readout electronics for the next generation of balloon-borne instruments and for use in a future FIR Surveyor. Read More: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S225117171641003

The nph2ph-transform: applications to the statistical analysis of completed clinical trials

We present several illustrations from completed clinical trials on a statistical approach that allows us to gain useful insights regarding the time dependency of treatment effects. Our approach leans on a simple proposition: all non-proportional hazards (NPH) models are equivalent to a proportional hazards model. The nph2ph transform brings an NPH model into a PH form. We often find very simple approximations for this transform, enabling us to analyze complex NPH observations as though they had arisen under proportional hazards. Many techniques become available to us, and we use these to understand treatment effects better

Nonce-Disrespecting Adversaries: Practical Forgery Attacks on GCM in TLS

We investigate nonce reuse issues with the GCM block cipher mode as used in TLS and focus in particular on AES-GCM, the most widely deployed variant. With an Internet-wide scan we identified 184 HTTPS servers repeating nonces, which fully breaks the authenticity of the connections. Affected servers include large corporations, financial institutions, and a credit card company. We present a proof of concept of our attack allowing to violate the authenticity of affected HTTPS connections which in turn can be utilized to inject seemingly valid content into encrypted sessions. Furthermore we discovered over 70,000 HTTPS servers using random nonces, which puts them at risk of nonce reuse if a large amount of data is sent over the same connection

The impact of the metabotropic glutamate receptor and other gene family interaction networks on autism.

International audienceAlthough multiple reports show that defective genetic networks underlie the aetiology of autism, few have translated into pharmacotherapeutic opportunities. Since drugs compete with endogenous small molecules for protein binding, many successful drugs target large gene families with multiple drug binding sites. Here we search for defective gene family interaction networks (GFINs) in 6,742 patients with the ASDs relative to 12,544 neurologically normal controls, to find potentially druggable genetic targets. We find significant enrichment of structural defects (P≤2.40E-09, 1.8-fold enrichment) in the metabotropic glutamate receptor (GRM) GFIN, previously observed to impact attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and schizophrenia. Also, the MXD-MYC-MAX network of genes, previously implicated in cancer, is significantly enriched (P≤3.83E-23, 2.5-fold enrichment), as is the calmodulin 1 (CALM1) gene interaction network (P≤4.16E-04, 14.4-fold enrichment), which regulates voltage-independent calcium-activated action potentials at the neuronal synapse. We find that multiple defective gene family interactions underlie autism, presenting new translational opportunities to explore for therapeutic interventions