A New Model for Estimating the Diffuse Fraction of Solar Irradiance for Photovoltaic System Simulations

We present a new model for the calculation of the diffuse fraction of the global solar irradiance for solar system simulations. The importance of an accurate estimation of the horizontal diffuse irradiance is highlighted by findings that an inaccurately calculated diffuse irradiance can lead to significant over- or underestimations in the annual energy yield of a photovoltaic (PV) system by as much as 8%. Our model utilizes a time series of global irradiance in one-minute resolution and geographical information as input. The model is validated by measurement data of 28 geographically and climatologically diverse locations worldwide with one year of one-minute data each, taken from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). We show that on average the mean absolute deviation of the modelled and the measured diffuse irradiance is reduced from about 12% to about 6% compared to three reference models. The maximum deviation is less than 20%. In more than 80% of the test cases, the deviation is smaller 10%. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of the calculated diffuse fractions is reduced by about 18%

Validation of spectral sky radiance derived from all-sky camera images - a case study

Spectral sky radiance (380–760 nm) is derived from measurements with a hemispherical sky imager (HSI)system. The HSI consists of a commercial compact CCD (charge coupled device) camera equipped with a fish-eye lens and provides hemispherical sky images in three reference bands such as red, green and blue. To obtain the spectral sky radiance from these images, non-linear regression functions for various sky conditions have been derived. The camera-based spectral sky radiance was validated using spectral sky radiance measured with a CCD spectroradiometer. The spectral sky radiance for complete distribution over the hemisphere between both instruments deviates by less than 20% at 500 nm for all sky conditions and for zenith angles less than 80 . The reconstructed spectra of the wavelengths 380–760 nm between both instruments at various directions deviate by less than 20% for all sky conditions.DF

Satellite-derived UV climatology at Escudero station, Antarctic Peninsula

We have used data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite over the period 2004-11 to describe the characteristics of surface ultraviolet (UV) irradiance at Escudero Station (62°12′S, 58°57′W). The station is located on King George Island (northern Antarctic Peninsula). Temperatures in summer are frequently above 0°C, and the surrounding ocean is typically ice-free. We found that the UV irradiance at Escudero is driven by the Antarctic ozone hole (which annually in spring leads to significant variations in the ozone) and by clouds (which are more frequent and have a larger optical depth compared with other Antarctic sites). The combined effect of ozone and clouds led to significant variations in the surface UV. The variability (taken as the standard deviation of the UV estimates retrieved from OMI) is typically greater than 30% at Escudero, but may reach values greater than 50% in spring. The consistency of OMI-derived data was checked by using ground-based spectral measurements carried out under controlled conditions in January 2011. © 2013 Antarctic Science Ltd

Comparing satellite- to ground-based automated and manual cloud coverage observations – a case study

In this case study we compare cloud fractional cover measured by radiometers on polar satellites (AVHRR) and on one geostationary satellite (SEVIRI) to ground-based manual (SYNOP) and automated observations by a cloud camera (Hemispherical Sky Imager, HSI). These observations took place in Hannover, Germany, and in Lauder, New Zealand, over time frames of 3 and 2 months, respectively. Daily mean comparisons between satellite derivations and the ground-based HSI found the deviation to be 6 14% for AVHRR and 8 16% for SEVIRI, which can be considered satisfactory. AVHRR’s instantaneous differences are smaller (2 22 %) than instantaneous SEVIRI cloud fraction estimates (8 29 %) when compared to HSI due to resolution and scenery effect issues. All spaceborne observations show a very good skill in detecting completely overcast skies (cloud cover 6 oktas) with probabilities between 92 and 94% and false alarm rates between 21 and 29% for AVHRR and SEVIRI in Hannover, Germany. In the case of a clear sky (cloud cover lower than 3 oktas) we find good skill with detection probabilities between 72 and 76 %. We find poor skill, however, whenever broken clouds occur (probability of detection is 32% for AVHRR and 12% for SEVIRI in Hannover, Germany). In order to better understand these discrepancies we analyze the influence of algorithm features on the satellite-based data. We find that the differences between SEVIRI and HSI cloud fractional cover (CFC) decrease (from a bias of 8 to almost 0 %) with decreasing number of spatially averaged pixels and decreasing index which determines the cloud coverage in each “cloud-contaminated” pixel of the binary map. We conclude that window size and index need to be adjusted in order to improve instantaneous SEVIRI and AVHRR estimates. Due to its automated operation and its spatial, temporal and spectral resolution, we recommend as well that more automated ground-based instruments in the form of cloud cameras should be installed as they cover larger areas of the sky than other automated ground-based instruments. These cameras could be an essential supplement to SYNOP observation as they cover the same spectral wavelengths as the human eye.DF

Is multidirectional UV exposure responsible for increasing melanoma prevalence with altitude? A hypothesis based on calculations with a 3D-human exposure model

In a recent study, melanoma incidence rates for Austrian inhabitants living at higher altitudes were found to increase by as much as 30% per 100 m altitude. This strong increase cannot simply be explained by the known increase of erythemally-weighted irradiance with altitude, which ranges between 0.5% and 4% per 100 m. We assume that the discrepancy is partially explainable by upwelling UV radiation; e.g., reflected by snow-covered surfaces. Therefore, we present an approach where the human UV exposure is derived by integrating incident radiation over the 3D geometry of a human body, which enables us to take upwelling radiation into account. Calculating upwelling and downwelling radiance with a radiative transfer model for a snow-free valley and for snow-covered mountain terrain (with albedo of 0.6) yields an increase in UV exposure by 10% per 100 m altitude. The results imply that upwelling radiation plays a significant role in the increase of melanoma incidence with altitude.Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP

The Solar Spectrum in the Atacama Desert

The Atacama Desert has been pointed out as one of the places on earth where the highest surface irradiance may occur. This area is characterized by its high altitude, prevalent cloudless conditions and relatively low columns of ozone and water vapor. Aimed at the characterization of the solar spectrum in the Atacama Desert, we carried out in February-March 2015 ground-based measurements of the spectral irradiance (from the ultraviolet to the near infrared) at seven locations that ranged from the city of Antofagasta (on the southern pacific coastline) to the Chajnantor Plateau (5,100 m altitude). Our spectral measurements allowed us to retrieve the total ozone column, the precipitable water, and the aerosol properties at each location. We found that changes in these parameters, as well as the shorter optical path length at high-altitude locations, lead to significant increases in the surface irradiance with the altitude. Our measurements show that, in the range 0?5100 m altitude, surface irradiance increases with the altitude by about 27% in the infrared range, 6% in the visible range, and 20% in the ultraviolet range. Spectral measurements carried out at the Iza?a Observatory (Tenerife, Spain), in Hannover (Germany) and in Santiago (Chile), were used for further comparisons

The world's highest levels of surface UV

Chile's northern Atacama Desert has been pointed out as one of the places on earth where the world's highest surface ultraviolet (UV) may occur. This area is characterized by its high altitude, prevalent cloudless conditions and relatively low total ozone column. Aimed at detecting those peak UV levels, we carried out in January 2013 ground-based spectral measurements on the Chajnantor Plateau (5100 m altitude, 23°00′S, 67°45′W) and at the Paranal Observatory (2635 m altitude, 24°37′S, 70°24′W). The UV index computed from our spectral measurements peaked at 20 on the Chajnantor Plateau (under broken cloud conditions) and at 16 at the Paranal Observatory (under cloudless conditions). Spectral measurements carried out in June 2005 at the Izaña Observatory (2367 m altitude, 28°18′N, 16°30′W) were used for further comparisons. Due to the differences in sun-earth separation, total ozone column, altitude, albedo, aerosols and clouds, peak UV levels are expected to be significantly higher at southern hemisphere sites than at their northern hemisphere counterparts. © 2014 The Royal Society of Chemistry and Owner Societies

Effects of UV-B radiation on the structural and physiological diversity of bacterioneuston and bacterioplankton

The effects of UV radiation (UVR) on estuarine bacterioneuston and bacterioplankton were assessed in microcosm experiments. Bacterial abundance and DNA synthesis were more affected in bacterioplankton. Protein synthesis was more inhibited in bacterioneuston. Community analysis indicated that UVR has the potential to select resistant bacteria (e.g., Gammaproteobacteria), particularly abundant in bacterioneuston

Convolutional Neural Network for High-Resolution Cloud Motion Prediction from Hemispheric Sky Images

A novel high-resolution method for forecasting cloud motion from all-sky images using deep learning is presented. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was created and trained with more than two years of all-sky images, recorded by a hemispheric sky imager (HSI) at the Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (IMUK) of the Leibniz Universität Hannover, Hannover, Germany. Using the haze indexpostprocessing algorithm, cloud characteristics were found, and the deformation vector of each cloud was performed and used as ground truth. The CNN training process was built to predict cloud motion up to 10 min ahead, in a sequence of HSI images, tracking clouds frame by frame. The first two simulated minutes show a strong similarity between simulated and measured cloud motion, which allows photovoltaic (PV) companies to make accurate horizon time predictions and better marketing decisions for primary and secondary control reserves. This cloud motion algorithm principally targets global irradiance predictions as an application for electrical engineering and in PV output predictions. Comparisons between the results of the predicted region of interest of a cloud by the proposed method and real cloud position show a mean Sørensen–Dice similarity coefficient (SD) of 94 ± 2.6% (mean ± standard deviation) for the first minute, outperforming the persistence model (89 ± 3.8%). As the forecast time window increased the index decreased to 44.4 ± 12.3% for the CNN and 37.8 ± 16.4% for the persistence model for 10 min ahead forecast. In addition, up to 10 min global horizontal irradiance was also derived using a feed-forward artificial neural network technique for each CNN forecasted image. Therefore, the new algorithm presented here increases the SD approximately 15% compared to the reference persistence model

Why PV Modules Should Preferably No Longer Be Oriented to the South in the Near Future

PV modules tilted and oriented toward east and west directions gain gradually more importance as an alternative to the presently-preferred south (north in the Southern Hemisphere) orientation and it is shown to become economically superior even under the reimbursement of feed-in tariff (FIT). This is a consequence of the increasing spread between the decreasing costs of self-consumed solar power and the costs for power from the grid. One-minute values of irradiance were measured by silicon sensors at different orientations and tilt angles in Hannover (Germany) over three years. We show that south-oriented collectors give the highest electrical power during the day, whereas combinations of east and west orientations (E-W) result in the highest self-consumption rate (SC), and combinations of southeast and southwest (SE-SW) orientations result in the highest degree of autarky (AD), although they reduce the yearly PV Power by 5–6%. Moreover, the economic analysis of PV systems without FIT shows that the SE-SW and E-W combinations have the lowest electricity cost and they are more beneficial in terms of internal rate of return (IRR), compared to the S orientation at the same tilt. For PV systems with FIT, the S orientation presently provides the highest transfer of money from the supplier. However, as a consequence of the continuing decline of FIT, the economic advantage of S orientation is decreasing. E-W and SE-SW orientations are more beneficial for the owner as soon as FIT decreases to 7 Ct/kWh. East and west orientations of PV modules do not only have benefits for the individual owner but avoid high costs for storing energy—regardless who would own the storage facilities—and by avoiding high noon peaks of solar energy production during sunny periods, which would become an increasing problem for the grid if more solar power is installed. Furthermore, two types of commonly used PV software (PVSOL and PVsyst) were used to simulate the system performance. The comparison with measurements showed that both PV software underestimate SC and AD for all studied orientations, leading to the conclusion that improvements are necessary in modelling