Democracy and Corruption: A Global Time-Series Analysis with V-Dem Data

Theory predicts democracy should reduce corruption. Yet, numerous scholars have found empirically that corruption decreases at high levels of democracy but actually increases at low levels. A key weaknesses of studies that aim to explain this inverted curvilinear relationship, however, is that they do not disaggregate the complex concept of democracy. By contrast, this working paper disaggregates democracy theoretically and empirically. Our theoretical framework shows how components of democracy affect costs and benefits of engaging in corruption and, therefore, the level of corruption overall. Whereas other studies examine only how democratic accountability imposes costs on those engaging in corruption and thus illuminate only the downward curve of the relationship, we also examine the transaction costs and political support benefits of corruption and therefore can explain the initial uptick in corruption at low levels of democracy. Using measures of democratic components from Varieties of Democracy, we examine 173 countries from 1900 to 2012 and find that freedoms of expression and association exhibit the inverted curvilinear relationship with corruption, and that judicial constraints have a negative linear relationship. Moreover, the introduction of elections and the quality of elections act jointly, but each in a linear fashion. The mere introduction of elections increases corruption, thus accounting for the upward sloping segment of the inverted curve. Once the quality of elections begins to improve, corruption decreases, resulting in the downward-sloping segment of the curve.We are grateful to Lucas Flowers, Mark Patteson, and Andrew Slivka for their research assistance. This research project was supported by the Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, Grant M13-0559:1, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation to Wallenberg Academy Fellow Staffan I. Lindberg, Grant 2013.0166, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; European Research Council, Grant 724191, PI: Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Sweden; and internal grants from the Vice-Chancellor’s office, the Dean of the College of Social Sciences, and the Department of Political Science at University of Gothenburg. We performed simulations and other computational tasks using resources provided by the Notre Dame Center for Research Computing (CRC) through the High Performance Computing section and the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing (SNIC) at the National Supercomputer Centre, SNIC 2016/1-382 and 2017/1-68. We specifically acknowledge the assistance of In-Saeng Suh at CRC and Johan Raber at SNIC in facilitating our use of their respective systems

Experts, Coders, and Crowds: An analysis of substitutability

Recent work suggests that crowd workers can replace experts and trained coders in common coding tasks. However, while many political science applications require coders to both and relevant information and provide judgment, current studies focus on a limited domain in which experts provide text for crowd workers to code. To address potential over-generalization, we introduce a typology of data producing actors - experts, coders, and crowds - and hypothesize factors which affect crowd-expert substitutability. We use this typology to guide a comparison of data from crowdsourced and expert surveys. Our results provide sharp scope conditions for the substitutability of crowd workers: when coding tasks require contextual and conceptual knowledge, crowds produce substantively dierent data from coders and experts. We also find that crowd workers can cost more than experts in the context of cross-national panels, and that one purported advantage of crowdsourcing - replicability - is undercut by an insucient number of crowd workers

A dynamic explanation for the origin of the western Mediterranean organic-rich layers

The eastern Mediterranean sapropels are among the most intensively investigated phenomena in the paleoceanographic record, but relatively little has been written regarding the origin of the equivalent of the sapropels in the western Mediterranean, the organic-rich layers (ORLs). ORLs are recognized as sediment layers containing enhanced total organic carbon that extend throughout the deep basins of the western Mediterranean and are associated with enhanced total barium concentration and a reduced diversity (dysoxic but not anoxic) benthic foraminiferal assemblage. Consequently, it has been suggested that ORLs represent periods of enhanced productivity coupled with reduced deep ventilation, presumably related to increased continental runoff, in close analogy to the sapropels. We demonstrate that despite their superficial similarity, the timing of the deposition of the most recent ORL in the Alboran Sea is different than that of the approximately coincident sapropel, indicating that there are important differences between their modes of formation. We go on to demonstrate, through physical arguments, that a likely explanation for the origin of the Alboran ORLs lies in the response of the western Mediterranean basin to a strong reduction in surface water density and a shoaling of the interface between intermediate and deep water during the deglacial period. Furthermore, we provide evidence that deep convection had already slowed by the time of Heinrich Event 1 and explore this event as a potential agent for preconditioning deep convection collapse. Important differences between Heinrich-like and deglacial-like influences are highlighted, giving new insights into the response of the western Mediterranean system to external forcing

Transparency on scientific instruments

Scientists and commercial scientific instrument makers have a shared incentive against discloseing an instrument maker's contributions to research. Stricter rules to encourage reporting of such collaboration would help to improve transparency and reproducibility

Analysis of the FGF gene family provides insights into aquatic adaptation in cetaceans

Cetacean body structure and physiology exhibit dramatic adaptations to their aquatic environment. Fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) are a family of essential factors that regulate animal development and physiology; however, their role in cetacean evolution is not clearly understood. Here, we sequenced the fin whale genome and analysed FGFs from 8 cetaceans. FGF22, a hair follicle-enriched gene, exhibited pseudogenization, indicating that the function of this gene is no longer necessary in cetaceans that have lost most of their body hair. An evolutionary analysis revealed signatures of positive selection for FGF3 and FGF11, genes related to ear and tooth development and hypoxia, respectively. We found a D203G substitution in cetacean FGF9, which was predicted to affect FGF9 homodimerization, suggesting that this gene plays a role in the acquisition of rigid flippers for efficient manoeuvring. Cetaceans utilize low bone density as a buoyancy control mechanism, but the underlying genes are not known. We found that the expression of FGF23, a gene associated with reduced bone density, is greatly increased in the cetacean liver under hypoxic conditions, thus implicating FGF23 in low bone density in cetaceans. Altogether, our results provide novel insights into the roles of FGFs in cetacean adaptation to the aquatic environment.ope

Experts, coders and crowds: An analysis of substitutability

Political scientists increasingly use crowdworkers to produce data, predominantly in the context of coding researcher-curated text or to retrieve simple data from the internet. In this article, we provide a theoretical and empirical basis for understanding when crowdworkers can provide data of sufficient quality to substitute for other types of coders. First, we introduce a typology of data-producing actors – experts, trained coders and crowds – and hypothesize factors that affect the substitutability of crowdworkers. We then examine how crowdworkers perform across coding tasks that vary along multiple dimensions of difficulty: information verifiability, availability and complexity. The results provide scope conditions bounding the substitutability of crowdworkers in political science applications. Although crowds can substitute for trained coders in the context of relatively simple information retrieval tasks, there is little evidence that crowdworkers can substitute for experts, whose tasks require both information retrieval and data synthesis.publishedVersio

Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding

During the past decade, analyses drawing on several democracy measures have shown a global trend of democratic retrenchment. While these democracy measures use radically different methodologies, most partially or fully rely on subjective judgments to produce estimates of the level of democracy within states. Such projects continuously grapple with balancing conceptual coverage with the potential for bias (Munck and Verkuilen 2002; Przeworski et al. 2000). Little and Meng (L&M) (2023) reintroduce this debate, arguing that “objective” measures of democracy show little evidence of recent global democratic backsliding.1 By extension, they posit that time-varying expert bias drives the appearance of democratic retrenchment in measures that incorporate expert judgments. In this article, we engage with (1) broader debates on democracy measurement and democratic backsliding, and (2) L&M’s specific data and conclusions

Efficacy and tolerability of intravenous methylergonovine in migraine female patients attending the emergency department: a pilot open-label study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Methylergonovine is an ergot alkaloid widely used in postpartum women. It is also an active metabolite of methysergide and previous studies suggest that it could be effective against refractory headache and cluster headache. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential therapeutic effectiveness of methylergonovine in the emergency treatment of severe migraine.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>One hundred and twenty five female patients with migraine attending the emergency department received 0.15 mg of methylergonovine intravenously. Pain intensity, heart rate, blood pressure, and methylergonovine side effects were checked 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes after drug administration. An additional 0.075 mg dose of methylergonovine was administered to those patients who did not experienced relevant pain relief 15 minutes after dosing. </p> <p>Results</p> <p>Pain intensity decreased markedly from the first minutes after dosing, the 74.4% of patients being pain free at 60 minutes. Only seven patients required an additional dose of methylergonovine. Nausea and vomiting were the most relevant side effects related with methylergonovine administration (84% of patients). A substantial decrease (10 to 25 mmHg) in systolic blood pressure values was observed in 56% of the patients. A significant correlation (p < 0.0001) was found between the decrease in pain intensity and the reduction of systolic blood pressure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although limited by the non-controlled design of the study, our data suggest that intravenous methylergonovine can be an effective and safe drug in the management of severe migraine attacks in the emergency room.</p

Entry, Exit, and the Determinants of Market Structure

This paper estimates a dynamic, structural model of entry and exit in an oligopolistic industry and uses it to quantify the determinants of market structure and long-run firm values for two U.S. service industries, dentists and chiropractors. Entry costs faced by potential entrants, fixed costs faced by incumbent producers, and the toughness of short-run price competition are all found to be important determinants of long-run firm values, firm turnover, and market structure. Estimates for the dentist industry allow the entry cost to differ for geographic markets that were designated as Health Professional Shortage Areas and in which entry was subsidized. The estimated mean entry cost is 11 percent lower in these markets. Using simulations, we compare entry-cost versus fixed-cost subsidies and find that entry-cost subsidies are less expensive per additional firm