Scatteract: Automated extraction of data from scatter plots

Charts are an excellent way to convey patterns and trends in data, but they do not facilitate further modeling of the data or close inspection of individual data points. We present a fully automated system for extracting the numerical values of data points from images of scatter plots. We use deep learning techniques to identify the key components of the chart, and optical character recognition together with robust regression to map from pixels to the coordinate system of the chart. We focus on scatter plots with linear scales, which already have several interesting challenges. Previous work has done fully automatic extraction for other types of charts, but to our knowledge this is the first approach that is fully automatic for scatter plots. Our method performs well, achieving successful data extraction on 89% of the plots in our test set.Comment: Submitted to ECML PKDD 2017 proceedings, 16 page

RCTs: How compatible are they with policy-making?

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been promoted as a means of improving policy-making by testing new policies. While testing before full-scale roll-out is commendable, this paper discusses the challenges of using RCTs in contemporary (national) health policy-making in England. There are at least two challenges in particular that are currently underrepresented in the debate: The first arises from the complexity of many policies which are often too diffuse and unclear in focus to allow for the clear distinction between a policy ‘mechanism’ and its context to be drawn that is required for a RCT. The second challenge relates to the timing of RCTs, which tend to take place either too early in the life of a policy to be meaningful or too late to have an effect on policy formulation. We therefore encourage policy-makers and researchers to be clear about the types of uncertainties ‘field experiments’ are meant to address which may be addressed better by other types of knowledge generation

The use of segmented regression in analysing interrupted time series studies : an example in pre-hospital ambulance care

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The politicisation of evaluation: constructing and contesting EU policy performance

Although systematic policy evaluation has been conducted for decades and has been growing strongly within the European Union (EU) institutions and in the member states, it remains largely underexplored in political science literatures. Extant work in political science and public policy typically focuses on elements such as agenda setting, policy shaping, decision making, or implementation rather than evaluation. Although individual pieces of research on evaluation in the EU have started to emerge, most often regarding policy “effectiveness” (one criterion among many in evaluation), a more structured approach is currently missing. This special issue aims to address this gap in political science by focusing on four key focal points: evaluation institutions (including rules and cultures), evaluation actors and interests (including competencies, power, roles and tasks), evaluation design (including research methods and theories, and their impact on policy design and legislation), and finally, evaluation purpose and use (including the relationships between discourse and scientific evidence, political attitudes and strategic use). The special issue considers how each of these elements contributes to an evolving governance system in the EU, where evaluation is playing an increasingly important role in decision making

Looking inside the black box : a theory-based process evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial of printed educational materials (the Ontario printed educational message, OPEM) to improve referral and prescribing practices in primary care in Ontario, Canada

Background: Randomised controlled trials of implementation strategies tell us whether (or not) an intervention results in changes in professional behaviour but little about the causal mechanisms that produce any change. Theory-based process evaluations collect data on theoretical constructs alongside randomised trials to explore possible causal mechanisms and effect modifiers. This is similar to measuring intermediate endpoints in clinical trials to further understand the biological basis of any observed effects (for example, measuring lipid profiles alongside trials of lipid lowering drugs where the primary endpoint could be reduction in vascular related deaths). This study protocol describes a theory-based process evaluation alongside the Ontario Printed Educational Message (OPEM) trial. We hypothesize that the OPEM interventions are most likely to operate through changes in physicians' behavioural intentions due to improved attitudes or subjective norms with little or no change in perceived behavioural control. We will test this hypothesis using a well-validated social cognition model, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) that incorporates these constructs. Methods/design: We will develop theory-based surveys using standard methods based upon the TPB for the second and third replications, and survey a subsample of Ontario family physicians from each arm of the trial two months before and six months after the dissemination of the index edition of informed, the evidence based newsletter used for the interventions. In the third replication, our study will converge with the "TRY-ME" protocol (a second study conducted alongside the OPEM trial), in which the content of educational messages was constructed using both standard methods and methods informed by psychological theory. We will modify Dillman's total design method to maximise response rates. Preliminary analyses will initially assess the internal reliability of the measures and use regression to explore the relationships between predictor and dependent variable (intention to advise diabetic patients to have annual retinopathy screening and to prescribe thiazide diuretics for first line treatment of uncomplicated hypertension). We will then compare groups using methods appropriate for comparing independent samples to determine whether there have been changes in the predicted constructs (attitudes, subjective norms, or intentions) across the study groups as hypothesised, and will assess the convergence between the process evaluation results and the main trial results.The OPEM trial and OPEM process evaluation are funded by the Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR). The OPEM process evaluation study was developed as part of the CIHR funded interdisciplinary capacity enhancement team KT-ICEBeRG. Gaston Godin, Jeremy Grimshaw and France Légaré hold Canada Research Chairs. Louise Lemyre holds an R.S. McLaughlin Research Chair

Tracing the wider impacts of biomedical research: A literature search to develop a novel citation categorisation technique

There is an increasing need both to understand the translation of biomedical research into improved healthcare and to assess the range of wider impacts from health research such as improved health policies, health practices and healthcare. Conducting such assessments is complex and new methods are being sought. Our new approach involves several steps. First, we developed a qualitative citation analysis technique to apply to biomedical research in order to assess the contribution that individual papers made to further research. Second, using this method, we then proposed to trace the citations to the original research through a series of generations of citing papers. Third, we aimed eventually to assess the wider impacts of the various generations. This article describes our comprehensive literature search to inform the new technique. We searched various databases, specific bibliometrics journals and the bibliographies of key papers. After excluding irrelevant papers we reviewed those remaining for either general or specific details that could inform development of our new technique. Various characteristics of citations were identified that had been found to predict their importance to the citing paper including the citation’s location; number of citation occasions and whether the author(s) of the cited paper were named within the citing paper. We combined these objective characteristics with subjective approaches also identified from the literature search to develop a citation categorisation technique that would allow us to achieve the first of the steps above, i.e., being able routinely to assess the contribution that individual papers make to further research.Medical Research Council as part of the MRC-NIHR Methodology Research Programme, and Professor Martin Buxton

Persistent threats to validity in single‐group interrupted time series analysis with a cross over design

Rationale, aims and objectivesThe basic single‐group interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) design has been shown to be susceptible to the most common threat to validity—history—the possibility that some other event caused the observed effect in the time series. A single‐group ITSA with a crossover design (in which the intervention is introduced and withdrawn 1 or more times) should be more robust. In this paper, we describe and empirically assess the susceptibility of this design to bias from history.MethodTime series data from 2 natural experiments (the effect of multiple repeals and reinstatements of Louisiana’s motorcycle helmet law on motorcycle fatalities and the association between the implementation and withdrawal of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign with Russia’s mortality crisis) are used to illustrate that history remains a threat to ITSA validity, even in a crossover design.ResultsBoth empirical examples reveal that the single‐group ITSA with a crossover design may be biased because of history. In the case of motorcycle fatalities, helmet laws appeared effective in reducing mortality (while repealing the law increased mortality), but when a control group was added, it was shown that this trend was similar in both groups. In the case of Gorbachev’s antialcohol campaign, only when contrasting the results against those of a control group was the withdrawal of the campaign found to be the more likely culprit in explaining the Russian mortality crisis than the collapse of the Soviet Union.ConclusionsEven with a robust crossover design, single‐group ITSA models remain susceptible to bias from history. Therefore, a comparable control group design should be included, whenever possible.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/1/jep12668.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/136538/2/jep12668_am.pd

Domestic burglary drop and the security hypothesis

This study examines the role of household security devices in producing the domestic burglary falls in England and Wales. It extends the study of the security hypothesis as an explanation for the 'crime drop'. Crime Survey for England and Wales data are analysed from 1992 to 2011/12 via a series of data signatures indicating the nature of, and change in, the relationship between security devices and burglary. The causal role of improved security is strongly indicated by a set of interlocking data signatures: rapid increases in the prevalence of security, particularly in the availability of combinations of the most effective devices (door and window locks plus security lighting); a steep decline in the pro-portion of households without security accompanied by disproportionate rises in their burglary risk; and the decline being solely in forced rather than unforced entries to households. The study concludes that there is strong evidence that security caused the decline in burglary in England and Wales in the 1990s. Testing the security hypothesis across a wider range of crime types, countries and forms of security than examined to date, is required both to understand the crime drop and to derive lessons for future crime prevention practice and policy

An examination of the long-term business value of investments in information technology

In this paper, we examine the effects of investments in Information Technology (IT) on the long term business values of organizations. The regression discontinuity design is used in this research to examine eight hundred and ten IT investment announcements collected from the period 1982–2007. Our results found that press releases can affect the market value of a firm by possibly providing investors with a better idea of a firm’s current and future operations and strategy. On the other hand, these press releases also appear to attract more transient investors. The attraction of transient investors likely suggests the market believes the IT investing firm is serious about its potential for growth and expansion

The impact of positive psychological interventions on well-being in healthy elderly people

This systematic review aims to evaluate the impact of Positive Psychological Interventions (PPIs) on well-being in healthy older adults. Systematic review of PPIs obtained from three electronic databases (PsycINFO, Scopus, and Web of Science) was undertaken. Inclusion criteria were: that they were positive psychology intervention, included measurement of well-being, participants were aged over 60 years, and the studies were in English. The Cochrane Collaboration Guidelines dimensions of quality control, randomization, comparability, follow-up rate, dropout, blinding assessors are used to rate the quality of studies by two reviewers independently. The RE-AIM (Reach, Efficacy, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) for evaluation of PPIs effectiveness was also applied. The final review included eight articles, each describing a positive psychological intervention study. The reminiscence interventions were the most prevalent type of PPIs to promote and maintain well-being in later life. Only two studies were rated as high quality, four were of moderate-quality and two were of low-quality. Overall results indicated that efficacy criteria (89%), reach criteria (85%), adoption criteria (73%), implementation criteria (67%), and maintenance criteria (4%) across a variety of RE-AIM dimensions. Directions for future positive psychological research related to RE-AIM, and implications for decision-making, are described