A Likelihood-Based Approach for Computing the Operating Characteristics of the Standard Phase I Clinical Trial Design

In phase I clinical trials, the standard ‘3+3’ design has passed the test of time and survived various sample size adjustments, or other dose-escalation dynamics. The objective of this study is to provide a probabilistic support for analyzing the heuristic performance of the ‘3+3’ design. Our likelihood method is based on the evidential paradigm that uses the likelihood ratio to measure the strength of statistical evidence for one simple hypothesis over the other. We compute the operating characteristics and compare the behavior of the standard algorithm under different hypotheses, levels of evidence, and true (or best guessed) toxicity rates. Given observed toxicities per dose level, the likelihood-ratio is evaluated according to a certain k threshold (level of evidence). Under an assumed true toxicity scenario the following statistical characteristics are computed and compared: i) probability of weak evidence, ii) probability of favoring H1 under H1(analogous to 1-α), iii) probability of favoring H2 under H2 (analogous to 1-β). This likelihood method allows consistent inferences to be made and evidence to be quantified regardless of cohort size. Moreover, this approach can be extended and used in phase I designs for identifying the highest acceptably safe dose and is akin to the sequential probability ratio test

Recanalization and Angiographic Reperfusion Are Both Associated with a Favorable Clinical Outcome in the IMS III Trial.

BACKGROUND: Prompt revascularization is the main goal of acute ischemic stroke treatment. We examined which revascularization scale - reperfusion (modified Treatment in Cerebral Infarctions, mTICI) or recanalization (Arterial Occlusive Lesion, AOL) - better predicted the clinical outcome in ischemic stroke participants treated with endovascular therapy (EVT). Additionally, we determined the optimal thresholds for the predictive accuracy of each scale. METHODS: We included participants from the Interventional Management of Stroke (IMS) III trial with complete occlusion in the internal carotid artery terminus or proximal middle cerebral artery (M1 or M2) who completed EVT within 7 h of symptom onset. The abilities of the AOL and mTICI scales to predict a favorable outcome (defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2 at 3 months) were compared by receiver operating characteristic analyses. The maximal sensitivity and specificity for each revascularization scale were established. RESULTS: Among 240 participants who met the study inclusion criteria, 79 (33%) achieved a favorable outcome. Higher scores of mTICI and AOL increased the likelihood of a favorable outcome (2.7% with mTICI 0 vs. 83.3% with mTICI 3, and 3.0% with AOL 0 vs. 43% with AOL 3). The accuracy of mTICI reperfusion and AOL recanalization for a favorable outcome prediction was similar, with optimal thresholds of mTICI 2b/3 and AOL 3, respectively. CONCLUSION: Reperfusion (mTICI) and recanalization (AOL) predicted a favorable clinical outcome with comparable accuracy in ischemic stroke participants treated with EVT. Optimal revascularization goals to maximize clinical outcome (modified Rankin Scale score of 0-2) consisted of complete recanalization (AOL 3) and reperfusion of at least 50% of the arterial tree of the symptomatic artery (mTICI 2b/3) in the IMS III trial setting

S1P, dihydro-S1P and C24:1-ceramide levels in the HDL-containing fraction of serum inversely correlate with occurrence of ischemic heart disease

BACKGROUND: The lysosphingolipid sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) is carried in the blood in association with lipoproteins, predominantly high density lipoproteins (HDL). Emerging evidence suggests that many of the effects of HDL on cardiovascular function may be attributable to its S1P cargo. METHODS: Here we have evaluated how levels of S1P and related sphingolipids in an HDL-containing fraction of human serum correlate with occurrence of ischemic heart disease (IHD). To accomplish this we used liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry to measure S1P levels in the HDL-containing fraction of serum (depleted of LDL and VLDL) from 204 subjects in the Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS). The study group consisted of individuals having high serum HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) (females:≥73.5 mg/dL; males:≥61.9 mg/dL) and verified IHD; subjects with high HDL-C and no IHD; individuals with low HDL-C (females:≤38.7 mg/dL; males:≤34.1 mg/dL) and IHD, and subjects with low HDL-C and no IHD. RESULTS: The results show a highly significant inverse relationship between the level of S1P in the HDL-containing fraction of serum and the occurrence of IHD. Furthermore, an inverse relationship with IHD was also observed for two other sphingolipids, dihydro-S1P and C24:1-ceramide, in the HDL-containing fraction of serum. Additionally, we demonstrated that the amount of S1P on HDL correlates with the magnitude of HDL-induced endothelial cell barrier signaling. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that compositional differences of sphingolipids in the HDL-containing fraction of human serum are related to the occurrence of IHD, and may contribute to the putative protective role of HDL in IHD

National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale An Alternative Primary Outcome Measure for Trials of Acute Treatment for Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose- The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3 months is the most commonly used primary outcome measure in stroke treatment trials, but it lacks specificity and requires long-term follow-up interviews, which consume time and resources. An alternative may be the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), early after stroke. Our aim was to evaluate whether the NIHSS assessed within 1 week after treatment could serve as a primary outcome measure for trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke. Methods- We used data from 2 randomized controlled trials of endovascular treatment for ischemic stroke: the positive MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands; N=500) and the neutral IMS (Interventional Management of Stroke) III trial (N=656). We used a causal mediation model, with linear and ordinal logistic regression adjusted for confounders, to evaluate the NIHSS 24 hours and 5 to 7 days after endovascular treatment as primary outcome measures (instead of the mRS at 3 months) in both trials. Patients who had died before the NIHSS was assessed received the maximum score of 42. NIHSS+1 was then log10-transformed. Results- In both trials, there was a significant correlation between the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days and the mRS. In MR CLEAN, we found a significant effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS and on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days. After adjustment for NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, the effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS decreased from common odds ratio 1.68 (95% CI, 1.22-2.32) to respectively 1.36 (95% CI, 0.97-1.91) and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.87-1.79), indicating that treatment effect on the mRS is in large part mediated by the NIHSS. In the IMS III trial there was no treatment effect on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, corresponding with the absence of a treatment effect on the mRS. Conclusions- The NIHSS within 1 week satisfies the requirements for a surrogate end point and may be used as a primary outcome measure in trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke, particularly in phase II(b) trials. This could reduce stroke-outcome assessment to its essentials (ie, neurological deficit), and reduce trial duration and costs. Whether and under which conditions it could be used in phase III trials requires a debate in the field with all parties. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN10888758; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424.</p

National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: An Alternative Primary Outcome Measure for Trials of Acute Treatment for Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose- The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 3 months is the most commonly used primary outcome measure in stroke treatment trials, but it lacks specificity and requires long-term follow-up interviews, which consume time and resources. An alternative may be the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), early after stroke. Our aim was to evaluate whether the NIHSS assessed within 1 week after treatment could serve as a primary outcome measure for trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke. Methods- We used data from 2 randomized controlled trials of endovascular treatment for ischemic stroke: the positive MR CLEAN (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands; N=500) and the neutral IMS (Interventional Management of Stroke) III trial (N=656). We used a causal mediation model, with linear and ordinal logistic regression adjusted for confounders, to evaluate the NIHSS 24 hours and 5 to 7 days after endovascular treatment as primary outcome measures (instead of the mRS at 3 months) in both trials. Patients who had died before the NIHSS was assessed received the maximum score of 42. NIHSS+1 was then log10-transformed. Results- In both trials, there was a significant correlation between the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days and the mRS. In MR CLEAN, we found a significant effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS and on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days. After adjustment for NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, the effect of endovascular treatment on the mRS decreased from common odds ratio 1.68 (95% CI, 1.22-2.32) to respectively 1.36 (95% CI, 0.97-1.91) and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.87-1.79), indicating that treatment effect on the mRS is in large part mediated by the NIHSS. In the IMS III trial there was no treatment effect on the NIHSS at 24 hours and 5 to 7 days, corresponding with the absence of a treatment effect on the mRS. Conclusions- The NIHSS within 1 week satisfies the requirements for a surrogate end point and may be used as a primary outcome measure in trials of acute treatment for ischemic stroke, particularly in phase II(b) trials. This could reduce stroke-outcome assessment to its essentials (ie, neurological deficit), and reduce trial duration and costs. Whether and under which conditions it could be used in phase III trials requires a debate in the field with all parties. Clinical Trial Registration- URL: http://www.isrctn.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN10888758; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424

Eine Einführung in die Inverted-Classroom-Methode in der medizinischen Ausbildung

Zielgruppe: Der Workshop richtet sich an alle Personen, die sich für die Inverted Classroom Methode(ICM) interessieren und diese ggf. für eigene Lehrprojekte anwenden möchten Lernziele: Ziel des Workshops ist es, die Teilnehmer zu befähigen, die ICM auf die eigene Lehre anzuwenden. Inhalt: Der Workshop gibt eine Einführung in die ICM, skizziert ihre Vor- und Nachteile unter Einbeziehung aktueller Forschungsergebnisse und vermittelt praktische Fertigkeiten, um eigene Konzept für die Lehre entwickeln zu können. Dabei werden zusätzlich Themen wie Video-und Screencasterstellung, Open Educational Resources und Urheberrechte skizziert. Ablauf: Der Workshop selbst ist nach der ICM konzipiert. Das bedeutet, dass sich die Teilnehmer bereits im Vorfeld in einer Online-Phase das notwendige Faktenwissen aneignen, um in der Präsenzphase das erlernte Wissen in Kleingruppen anzuwenden und ICM-Konzepte für die eigene Lehre zu entwickeln. Diese Konzepte werden am Ende in der Gruppe vorgestellt und diskutier

Abstract W P19: Propensity Scores Facilitate Unbiased Comparison of Endovascular Devices in IMS III

Introduction: The IMS III Trial randomized acute ischemic stroke patients to endovascular (IV tPA + intra-arterial) or IV tPA -only therapy to compare efficacy. However, endovascular subjects were not randomized to a particular approach; interventionalists chose the method. Hence, any statistical comparison of devices must account for potential selection bias. Methods: To compare the efficacy and safety of various endovascular treatment modalities, the multiple propensity score (PS) method was implemented to account for potential bias and achieve balance between groups. The analysis is restricted to subjects with an ICA or M1 vessel treated using a standard microcatheter, the Merci retriever, or the Penumbra system. Propensity scores were estimated via a multinomial regression model that included demographic and clinical variables for which 1) an imbalance between devices was demonstrated (α=0.10) or 2) an association with outcome was established (α=0.10). PS tertiles were included as covariates in a logistic regression model relating outcome to device. Results: The analysis included 167 subjects treated with a standard microcatheter (n=51), the Merci retriever (n=77) or the Penumbra system (n=39). Unadjusted comparison indicated imbalance between devices in the presence of atrial fibrillation, age, systolic blood pressure, onset to IV tPA start time, and IV tPA start to groin puncture time. Additional covariates included in the PS model varied by outcome. After adjustment for PS tertiles, the initial difference in baseline variables between devices was no longer statistically significant and there was insufficient evidence to conclude that the devices differed for any of the outcomes considered. Conclusions: Selection bias was a concern in comparing endovascular approaches in IMS III. The PS method successfully balanced baseline characteristics and facilitated a valid conclusion: major efficacy and safety outcomes did not significantly differ between subjects treated with a standard microcatheter, the Merci retriever, and the Penumbra system. Limitations include small sample size and the possibility of differences in unmeasured baseline characteristics. </jats:p