Inequality under the Labour government

This Briefing Note will provide a brief analysis of changes to income inequality since the Labour government came to power in 1997.1 The most recent data from 2001-02 show that there has been little change in income inequality since 2000-01. An implication of this is that there has been little impact upon the slight upward trend in inequality that has been experienced over Labour's term in government

Administrative review and oversight: the experience of Westminster

Parliament has been left behind by far-reaching changes to the constitution, government and society in the past two decades. Despite recent innovations, particularly in the handling of legislation, the central question of Westminster's scrutiny of the executive has not been addressed. (Report of the Hansard Society Commission on Parliamentary Scrutiny, 2001: x) Prior to the Labour Party's election victory in 1997, Labour's manifesto promised an 'effective House of Commons' to be realised in large part through the creation of a special Select Committee with remit to review procedures in light of the 'need for modernisation'. Shortly after victory, Labour established a 'Modernisation Committee' chaired by the Leader of the Commons and with a remit to review four key areas: the legislative process; ministerial accountability; working practices (such as sitting hours); and the style and forms of proceedings. Between 1997 and 2003 the Committee published 19 reports starting with a report on the legislative process. However, to date, most of the reports have focused on the modernisation of working practices and the style and form of proceedings. Reports that deal with improving the effectiveness of ministerial accountability have been notably lacking. Consequently, the view of the Hansard Society that 'parliamentary reform has been one of improving the efficiency of Parliament, but not its effectiveness' appears just as valid three years on

The epidemiology of mastitis in Australian dairy cattle : a dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Veterinary Studies (Epidemiology)

This study represents an aggregation of knowledge on mastitis within the Australian dairy industry. Aspects of the epidemiology and economics of mastitis have been collated and areas of missing knowledge identified. A clinical treatment trial was conducted on subclinical mastitis to identify the role of therapy upon subclinical infection. The effect of individual variables on mastitis risk was studied and aggregated in order to facilitate the development of a computer simulation model of mastitis within Australian dairy herds. A literature review of mastitis within the Australian dairy industry was conducted. The economic impact of mastitis was examined and the pathway of economic loss to the dairy industry is discussed. The epidemiology of mastitis was studied with special emphasis on quantification of the effect of individual risk factors on the occurrence of disease. Performance parameters for the current diagnostic tests applied within the dairy industry are presented and their suitability for use in a commercial environment discussed. The impact of self-cure and the efficacy of therapeutic intervention in the disease are examined. The role of culling is presented. The chapter concludes with an estimation of die total economic losses experienced on a commercial dairy farm in Victoria in 1998 for three different mastitis levels. The economic benefit to be gained from a reduction in mastitis is also presented. A clinical treatment trial of subclinically infected cows (high somatic cell count) was conducted in order to determine if therapeutic intervention was an effective management tool. Cows with somatic cell counts in excess of 500,000 cells per ml and more than 14 days calved were selected and randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. A pooled quarter milk sample was taken prior to treatment and repeated at around six weeks after treatment. Treated cows received a course of intramammary and parenteral antibiotics and control cows were untreated. Cows were followed for the rest of the lactation of treatment and into the subsequent lactation and somatic cell counts were recorded. The major pathogens identified were S anreus and S uberis. Treatment did not have a significant or commercially useful effect upon bacteriological cure rates, survival of cows to the next lactation or somatic cell count for the remainder of the lactation. Treatment of high somatic cell count cows during lactation is not recommended and is discussed. A requirement exists for the development of a stochastic simulation model of mastitis within Australian dairy herds. The structure of such a model was developed and is presented. Underlying production and somatic cell count responses in Australian cattle were derived. Infection status variables were included and stochasticity was introduced through the use of control variates. State transition probabilities were collected from the literature. Deficiencies in knowledge were identified and methods for modeling these deficient areas discussed. The aggregated information is presented. It is expected that a working stochastic simulation model of mastitis within Australian dairy herds will be developed from infomation collected in this dissertation

Deferred fees for universities

I will argue for a simpler, fairer, more fiscally responsible and flexible form of university funding and student support. This system is designed to encourage a diverse higher education sector where high quality provision can flourish. The main points of the new system are: 1. Make student financial support available to cover all tuition and a modest cost of living. 2. Allow graduates to repay according to earnings with protection for poorer graduates. 3. Call HEFCE teaching grants “scholarships” and make students aware of their value. 4. Cap the level of funded fees plus HEFCE grant at the current level. 5. Allow universities to charge deferred fees. a. When they are paid the money goes to the student’s university not to the state. These fees have no fiscal implications. b. Bring some of the cash flow from deferred fees forward by working with a bank. 6. In the long-run move to making the cost of living support simpler by a. Providing more realistic cost of living support for all students. b. Removing means-tested university bursaries for cost of living expenses. c. Removing means-tested grants to students provided by the state. This builds on England’s higher education structure. The changes are simple to implement. It would set up a stable funding structure for our universities & provide the financial support our students need.

Employment and the labour market

Since 1997, there have been changes in rates of employment, unemployment and inactivity. These changes have coincided with the Labour government's "Making Work Pay" agenda, which has seen the introduction of in-work tax credits, the national minimum wage and various New Deal programmes. Section 2 gives details of how the rates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity have changed under the Labour government. Section 3 begins by detailing the national minimum wage and presents evidence on its impact, and continues in a somewhat similar vein, analysing the New Deal programmes and in-work tax credits. In Section 4, we show how financial work incentives have changed since 1997, and we briefly analyse the employment proposals of the main parties in Section 5. Finally, Section 6 concludes

Integration of finite element modeling with solid modeling through a dynamic interface

Finite element modeling is dominated by geometric modeling type operations. Therefore, an effective interface to geometric modeling requires access to both the model and the modeling functionality used to create it. The use of a dynamic interface that addresses these needs through the use of boundary data structures and geometric operators is discussed

Realising the future: forecasting with high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models

This paper studies in some detail a class of high frequency based volatility (HEAVY) models. These models are direct models of daily asset return volatility based on realized measures constructed from high frequency data. Our analysis identifies that the models have momentum and mean reversion effects, and that they adjust quickly to structural breaks in the level of the volatility process. We study how to estimate the models and how they perform through the credit crunch, comparing their fit to more traditional GARCH models. We analyse a model based bootstrap which allow us to estimate the entire predictive distribution of returns. We also provide an analysis of missing data in the context of these models.ARCH models; bootstrap; missing data; multiplicative error model; multistep ahead prediction; non-nested likelihood ratio test; realised kernel; realised volatility.