Effective Exchange Rates in Japan, 1879-1938

This paper constructs nominal and real multilateral effective exchange rates ffor Japan during the period 1879-1938. Existing studies of Japanese quantitative economic history have tended to use the dollar-yen bilateral exchange rate. A comparison of different indices suggests that the new data offer new insights into Japan�s economic history

Bose-Einstein Condensation in Competitive Processes

We introduce an irreversible discrete multiplicative process that undergoes Bose-Einstein condensation as a generic model of competition. New players with different abilities successively join the game and compete for limited resources. A player's future gain is proportional to its ability and its current gain. The theory provides three principles for this type of competition: competitive exclusion, punctuated equilibria, and a critical condition for the distribution of the players' abilities necessary for the dominance and the evolution. We apply this theory to genetics, ecology and economy.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitted to PR

A simplified method for calculating the atmospheric heating rate by absorption of solar radiation in the stratosphere and mesosphere

Calculations of the atmospheric heating rate by absorption of solar radiation by O3, H2O, and CO2 are reported. The method needs only seven parameters for each molecule and is particularly useful for heating calculations in three-dimensional global circulation models below 80 km. Applying the formula to the observed distributions of O3, H2O, and CO2 produces reasonable latitudinal and seasonal variations in the heating rate. The calculated heating rate, however, is sensitive to the global distributions of the absorbing gases, and uncertainties in the O3 distribution above approximately 50 km and the H2O distribution below approximately 20 km may seriously affect the global distributions of the heating rate in these regions

Simplified methods for calculating photodissociation rates

Simplified methods for calculating the transmission of solar UV radiation and the dissociation coefficients of various molecules are compared. A significant difference sometimes appears in calculations of the individual band, but the total transmission and the total dissociation coefficients integrated over the entire SR (solar radiation) band region agree well between the methods. The ambiguities in the solar flux data affect the calculated dissociation coefficients more strongly than does the method. A simpler method is developed for the purpose of reducing the computation time and computer memory size necessary for storing coefficients of the equations. The new method can reduce the computation time by a factor of more than 3 and the memory size by a factor of more than 50 compared with the Hudson-Mahle method, and yet the result agrees within 10 percent (in most cases much less) with the original Hudson-Mahle results, except for H2O and CO2. A revised method is necessary for these two molecules, whose absorption cross sections change very rapidly over the SR band spectral range

Measuring the Impact of a BSE Announcement on U.S. Retail Beef Sales: A Time-Series Analysis

On December 23, 2003, Agriculture Secretary Ann M. Veneman announced that the United States Department of Agriculture had diagnosed the first U.S. case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), commonly known as “mad cow disease.†This study uses supermarket sales data to analyze the effect of the BSE announcement on U.S. retail beef sales, finding a statistically significant disruption of sales. In addition, we develop a forecast of retail beef sales revenues in the hypothetical absence of BSE. The forecast implies that the BSE announcement may have reduced domestic retail beef revenues in excess of $11 billion in the post-BSE period.ARIMA models, BSE, mad cow disease, U.S. retail beef sales, Health Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries,

Prognostic factors for corneal graft recovery after severe corneal graft rejection following penetrating keratoplasty

BACKGROUND: To investigate the outcome and prognostic factors for corneal graft recovery after severe corneal graft rejection following penetrating keratoplasty (PKP) treated with topical and systemic steroids. METHODS: Fifty-eight eyes in 58 patients with severe corneal graft rejection following PKP were treated with topical and systemic steroids. Factors affecting the reversibility and maintenance of graft transparency were analyzed. RESULTS: Graft transparency was restored in 37 of 58 eyes (63.8%). Clarity of the graft was maintained in 25 of 37 eyes after transparency was restored, while corneal decompensation developed at a mean of 6.0 ± 4.3 months in the remainder. The interval between rejection and treatment with systemic steroids was shorter in cases that recovered graft transparency (OR, 0.88, 95% CI. 0.80–0.97, P = 0.0093). Corneal decompensation after the recovery of corneal transparency tend to occur in cases of regraft (OR, 0.09, 95% CI. 0.01–0.54, P = 0.0091). CONCLUSIONS: Severe corneal graft rejection after PKP was reversible in approximately two-thirds of the cases, with graft transparency being maintained in two-thirds of them when treated with both topical and systemic steroids. Early treatment confers a benefit in terms of the recovery of graft transparency