19,022 research outputs found

    Solving multiple-criteria R&D project selection problems with a data-driven evidential reasoning rule

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    In this paper, a likelihood based evidence acquisition approach is proposed to acquire evidence from experts'assessments as recorded in historical datasets. Then a data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model is introduced to R&D project selection process by combining multiple pieces of evidence with different weights and reliabilities. As a result, the total belief degrees and the overall performance can be generated for ranking and selecting projects. Finally, a case study on the R&D project selection for the National Science Foundation of China is conducted to show the effectiveness of the proposed model. The data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model for project evaluation and selection (1) utilizes experimental data to represent experts' assessments by using belief distributions over the set of final funding outcomes, and through this historic statistics it helps experts and applicants to understand the funding probability to a given assessment grade, (2) implies the mapping relationships between the evaluation grades and the final funding outcomes by using historical data, and (3) provides a way to make fair decisions by taking experts' reliabilities into account. In the data-driven evidential reasoning rule based model, experts play different roles in accordance with their reliabilities which are determined by their previous review track records, and the selection process is made interpretable and fairer. The newly proposed model reduces the time-consuming panel review work for both managers and experts, and significantly improves the efficiency and quality of project selection process. Although the model is demonstrated for project selection in the NSFC, it can be generalized to other funding agencies or industries.Comment: 20 pages, forthcoming in International Journal of Project Management (2019

    A Descriptive Model of Robot Team and the Dynamic Evolution of Robot Team Cooperation

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    At present, the research on robot team cooperation is still in qualitative analysis phase and lacks the description model that can quantitatively describe the dynamical evolution of team cooperative relationships with constantly changeable task demand in Multi-robot field. First this paper whole and static describes organization model HWROM of robot team, then uses Markov course and Bayesian theorem for reference, dynamical describes the team cooperative relationships building. Finally from cooperative entity layer, ability layer and relative layer we research team formation and cooperative mechanism, and discuss how to optimize relative action sets during the evolution. The dynamic evolution model of robot team and cooperative relationships between robot teams proposed and described in this paper can not only generalize the robot team as a whole, but also depict the dynamic evolving process quantitatively. Users can also make the prediction of the cooperative relationship and the action of the robot team encountering new demands based on this model. Journal web page & a lot of robotic related papers www.ars-journal.co
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