Groth effects of inflation in Europe: How low is too low, how high is too high?

This paper reassesses the impact of in°ation on long-term growth for a panel of 14 EU countries. While previous research focuses on a linear nexus or allows for a piecewise linear relationship with one single threshold, we take account of a more complex relationship. We use a theoretical framework that allows for an explicit distinction between level and growth e®ects of in°ation. The empirical estimates for the full EU sample con¯rm the hypothesis that the relationship between in°ation and growth is positive for very low in°ation rates (i.e. below an estimate of 1.6%), insigni¯cant thereafter and negative for high, two-digit in°ation levels. The estimate of the in°ation level that divides the insigni¯cant from the negative e®ect is found to be higher in the group of traditional cohesion countries than for the rest of the sample.

Economic Recovery in the Euro Area and in Austria in a Dynamic Global Economic Environment

Economic Recovery in the Euro Area and in Austria in a Dynamic Global Economic EnvironmentEconomic Growth

Trade in value added: do we need new measures of competitiveness?

It has been argued that the increasing importance of global value chains necessitates a modification of conventional competitiveness measures. We compile a broad dataset including value added trade, gross exports and conventional and value added based real exchange rates. To sharply focus on external competitiveness, a new price competitiveness indicator is introduced, the TWULC (Trade Weighted Unit Labour Cost indicator). It weights sector-specific cost trends according to sector shares in exports. Econometric tests for a panel of 38 countries show that the focus on value added trade generally improves the explanatory power of export equations. Value added exports’ sensitivity towards real exchange rates is up to four times higher than that of gross exports. Real effective ex-change rates focusing on exporting industries and on value added weights yield more robust results across the specifications, but do not systematically outperform the more conventional measures of price of cost competitiveness

Fishing in the same pool? export strengths and competitiveness of China and CESEE in the EU-15 Market

We investigate the impact of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of the ten Central, Eastern and Southeastern European EU Member States (CESEE-10) in the EU-15 market. The paper takes a comprehensive approach as we analyze export growth, export market shares, extensive and intensive margins and the dynamics in the number of joint trade links (Dynamic Trade Link Analysis) from 1995 to 2010. According to our findings, the most contested markets are those for capital goods and transport equipment. Overall, competition between CESEE-10 and China intensified as a result of their outstanding competitiveness and the continuous deepening of already existing trade relationships, while cutthroat competition has not materialized. While this suggests that the CESEE countries pursue a suitable export strategy, diversification of production toward promising new industries and markets remains essential, not least because the EU-15 market is projected to grow at a slower pace in the longer run

Crowding-out or co-existence? the competitive position of EU members and China in global merchandise trade

In this paper, we analyse export competition between individual EU Member States and China in third-country goods markets. We find that competitive pressure from China is strongest for small and peripheral EU members, especially for the Southern periphery, Ireland and Central, Eastern and South-eastern European EU members. While we find no hard evidence for "cut-throat" competition between China and EU countries, we see an increasing tendency of smaller EU exporters leaving markets that are increasingly served by China. We base our findings on traditional market share analysis, the exploration of intensive versus extensive margin export growth and on a Dynamic Trade Link Analysis. The latter, a newly developed tool, identifies different types of competitive pressure at the detailed product-destination market level. We use UN Comtrade data at the highest level of disaggregation (6-digit HS) for 75 world exporters and importers over the period 2000-2011

Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and CESEE at the EU-15 Market

We investigate the impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market. The paper takes a comprehensive approach in terms of empirical methods and data. We analyze export growth, export market shares, extensive and intensive margins and the number of trade links, applying highly disaggregated data at the 6 digit HS level over the period 1995 - 2010. We show that the most contested markets are those for capital goods and transport equipment, product categories where both regions have gained market shares and comparative advantage. We show that the number of trade links at the product level where both regions are active has increased substantially, indicating intensified competition. At the same time hardly any trade links were lost, which points against cut-throat competition between CESEE and China. The decomposition of export growth along the extensive versus the intensive margin shows that in line with the literature, the deepening of already existing trade relationships (i.e. the intensive margin) contributed most strongly export growth in both regions, whereas the contribution of new trade links (i.e. the extensive margin) had only a minor contribution, apart from the instance of EU accession which boosted the extensive margin considerably. We further decompose intensive margin growth into demand related structural effects and a supplier related competitiveness effect. Both the CESEE region and China successfully intensified their trade linkages above all as a result of their outstanding competitiveness as shown by the econometric shift-share analysis. While this suggests that both regions pursue a able export strategy, further diversification of production towards promising new industries and markets will become increasingly crucial for both, especially in face of projected slower EU-15 market growth in the longer run

Households' financial resilience, risk perceptions, and financial literacy - evidence from a survey experiment

We examine the financial resilience of Austrian households, relating it to their experience of financial shocks earlier in life and to their financial literacy. We find that previous negative (positive) financial shocks are negatively (positively) related to financial resilience. Financial literacy and households’ financial resilience are positively related. Based on a randomized survey experiment, we investigate the role of over-optimism when evaluating the potential impact of future events on households’ financial situation. Households are asked to assess specific risks for their own household (treatment) or for a household with similar characteristics (control). On average, households assign a lower probability to shocks that negatively affect personal finances if asked for their own household compared to a similar household. We do not find the reverse effect for positive shocks. We find a negative correlation between over-optimism and financial literacy, indicating that financial literacy is relevant to both, financial behavior and the ability to assess financial shocks

Application of Headspace Solid-Phase Microextraction for Determination of Chloro-Organic Compounds in Sewage Samples

Solid phase microextraction (SPME) has been optimized and applied to the determination of the volatile halogenated compounds (VHCs) and semi-volatile halogenated compounds (SVHCs). Three types of SPME fiber coated with different stationary phases (PDMS–100 μm, CAR/PDMS-75 μm, PDMS/DVB–65 μm) were used to examine their extraction efficiencies for the compounds tested. Experimental parameters such as the selection of SPME coatings, extraction time, and addition of salts were studied. The carboxen-polydimethylsiloxane (CAR/PDMS) fiber appears to be the most suitable for the determination of VHCs. Analytical parameters such as linearity, limit of detection, and precision were also evaluated. Application of ECD detector for the determination of VHCs and SVHCs allows their determination on the low concentration level, ranging from 0.005 to 0.8 μg/L−1. The HS-SPME-GC/ECD procedure gave good analytical precision expressed as relative standard deviation (RSD) (ranged from 5.08% to 8.07%) for a concentration level of 5 μg/L−1 and good linearity (r2 > 0.98) in a wide calibration range. The applied HS-SPME-GC/ECD method was found to be a quick and effective technique for the determination of microtrace amounts of volatile and semi-volatile halogenated compounds in samples containing high amounts of various organic compounds