Prognostics: Design, Implementation, and Challenges

Prognostics is an essential part of condition-based maintenance (CBM), described as predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of a system. It is also a key technology for an integrated vehicle health management (IVHM) system that leads to improved safety and reliability. A vast amount of research has been presented in the literature to develop prognostics models that are able to predict a system’s RUL. These models can be broadly categorised into experience-based models, data-driven models and physics-based models. Therefore, careful consideration needs to be given to selecting which prognostics model to take forward and apply for each real application. Currently, developing reliable prognostics models in real life is challenging for various reasons, such as the design complexity associated with a system, the high uncertainty and its propagation in the degradation, system level prognostics, the evaluation framework and a lack of prognostics standards. This paper is written with the aim to bring forth the challenges and opportunities for developing prognostics models for complex systems and making researchers aware of these challenges and opportunities

Comparison of different classification algorithms for fault detection and fault isolation in complex systems

Due to the lack of sufficient results seen in literature, feature extraction and classification methods of hydraulic systems appears to be somewhat challenging. This paper compares the performance of three classifiers (namely linear support vector machine (SVM), distance-weighted k-nearest neighbor (WKNN), and decision tree (DT) using data from optimized and non-optimized sensor set solutions. The algorithms are trained with known data and then tested with unknown data for different scenarios characterizing faults with different degrees of severity. This investigation is based solely on a data-driven approach and relies on data sets that are taken from experiments on the fuel system. The system that is used throughout this study is a typical fuel delivery system consisting of standard components such as a filter, pump, valve, nozzle, pipes, and two tanks. Running representative tests on a fuel system are problematic because of the time, cost, and reproduction constraints involved in capturing any significant degradation. Simulating significant degradation requires running over a considerable period; this cannot be reproduced quickly and is costly

State of health estimation of Li-ion batteries with regeneration phenomena: a similar rest time-based prognostic framework

State of health (SOH) prediction in Li-ion batteries plays an important role in intelligent battery management systems (BMS). However, the existence of capacity regeneration phenomena remains a great challenge for accurately predicting the battery SOH. This paper proposes a novel prognostic framework to predict the regeneration phenomena of the current battery using the data of a historical battery. The global degradation trend and regeneration phenomena (characterized by regeneration amplitude and regeneration cycle number) of the current battery are extracted from its raw SOH time series. Moreover, regeneration information of the historical battery derived from corresponding raw SOH data is utilized in this framework. The global degradation trend and regeneration phenomena of the current battery are predicted, and then the prediction results are integrated together to calculate the overall SOH prediction values. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is employed to obtain an appropriate regeneration threshold for the historical battery. Gaussian process (GP) model is adopted to predict the global degradation trend, and linear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated using experimental data from the degradation tests of Li-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framewor

Efficient Query Processing for SPARQL Federations with Replicated Fragments

Low reliability and availability of public SPARQL endpoints prevent real-world applications from exploiting all the potential of these querying infras-tructures. Fragmenting data on servers can improve data availability but degrades performance. Replicating fragments can offer new tradeoff between performance and availability. We propose FEDRA, a framework for querying Linked Data that takes advantage of client-side data replication, and performs a source selection algorithm that aims to reduce the number of selected public SPARQL endpoints, execution time, and intermediate results. FEDRA has been implemented on the state-of-the-art query engines ANAPSID and FedX, and empirically evaluated on a variety of real-world datasets

Towards design of prognostics and health management solutions for maritime assets

With increase in competition between OEMs of maritime assets and operators alike, the need to maximize the productivity of an equipment and increase operational efficiency and reliability is increasingly stringent and challenging. Also, with the adoption of availability contracts, maritime OEMs are becoming directly interested in understanding the health of their assets in order to maximize profits and to minimize the risk of a system's failure. The key to address these challenges and needs is performance optimization. For this to be possible it is important to understand that system failure can induce downtime which will increase the total cost of ownership, therefore it is important by all means to minimize unscheduled maintenance. If the state of health or condition of a system, subsystem or component is known, condition-based maintenance can be carried out and system design optimization can be achieved thereby reducing total cost of ownership. With the increasing competition with regards to the maritime industry, it is important that the state of health of a component/sub-system/system/asset is known before a vessel embarks on a mission. Any breakdown or malfunction in any part of any system or subsystem on board vessel during the operation offshore will lead to large economic losses and sometimes cause accidents. For example, damages to the fuel oil system of vessel's main engine can result in huge downtime as a result of the vessel not being in operation. This paper presents a prognostic and health management (PHM) development process applied on a fuel oil system powering diesel engines typically used in various cruise and fishing vessels, dredgers, pipe laying vessels and large oil tankers. This process will hopefully enable future PHM solutions for maritime assets to be designed in a more formal and systematic way

A rest time-based prognostic framework for state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries with regeneration phenomena

State of health (SOH) prognostics is significant for safe and reliable usage of lithium-ion batteries. To accurately predict regeneration phenomena and improve long-term prediction performance of battery SOH, this paper proposes a rest time-based prognostic framework (RTPF) in which the beginning time interval of two adjacent cycles is adopted to reflect the rest time. In this framework, SOH values of regeneration cycles, the number of cycles in regeneration regions and global degradation trends are extracted from raw SOH time series and predicted respectively, and then the three sets of prediction results are integrated to calculate the final overall SOH prediction values. Regeneration phenomena can be found by support vector machine and hyperplane shift (SVM-HS) model by detecting long beginning time intervals. Gaussian process (GP) model is utilized to predict the global degradation trend, and nonlinear models are utilized to predict the regeneration amplitude and the cycle number of each regeneration region. The proposed framework is validated through experimental data from the degradation tests of lithium-ion batteries. The results demonstrate that both the global degradation trend and the regeneration phenomena of the testing batteries can be well predicted. Moreover, compared with the published methods, more accurate SOH prediction results can be obtained under this framewor

Accommodating repair actions into gas turbine prognostics

Elements of gas turbine degradation, such as compressor fouling, are recoverable through maintenance actions like compressor washing. These actions increase the usable engine life and optimise the performance of the gas turbine. However, these maintenance actions are performed by a separate organization to those undertaking fleet management operations, leading to significant uncertainty in the maintenance state of the asset. The uncertainty surrounding maintenance actions impacts prognostic efficacy. In this paper, we adopt Bayesian on-line change point detection to detect the compressor washing events. Then, the event detection information is used as an input to a prognostic algorithm, advising an update to the estimation of remaining useful life. To illustrate the capability of the approach, we demonstrated our on-line Bayesian change detection algorithms on synthetic and real aircraft engine service data, in order to identify the compressor washing events for a gas turbine and thus provide demonstrably improved prognosis

Distributed Semantic Wiki: Kolflow Project -Task 5- State of the art (D5.1)

This paper presents the state of the art on Distributed Semantic Wikis. This work is part of the Kolflow project, more precisely it is part of the task 5, {\bf D(5.1)}

Safe Generic Data Synchronizer

Rapport interne.Reconciliating divergent data is an important issue in concurrent engineering, mobile computing and software configuration management. Actually, a lot of synchronizers or merge tools perform reconciliations, however, which strategy they apply ? is it correct ? In this paper, we propose to use a transformational approach to build a safe generic data synchronizer