Re-examining the 'More People Less Erosion' Hypothesis:\ud Special Case of Wider Trend?

Recent research into natural resource rehabilitation based on in-depth case studies has highlighted situations where population growth and agricultural intensification have been accompanied by improved rather than deteriorating soil and water resources(e.g. Tiffen et al., 1994). Drawing on new case studies in six countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda), this paper examines how widespread are the prospects for positive outcomes of the ‘more people, less erosion’ type

Determination of species

There are no author-identified significant results in this report

The Financial Crisis and the Changing Profile of Mortgage Arrears in Ireland. ESRI Research Notes 2014/4/2

Understanding which households go into mortgage arrears during both boom and bust periods in Ireland is of critical importance to ensure suitable policies are deployed to safeguard future financial stability. Many of the difficulties in Ireland arose from the loosening of underwriting standards by financial institutions. This led to excessive household leverage ratios and provided households with limited buffers with which to absorb shocks (McCarthy and McQuinn, 2017; Lydon and McCann, 2017). The joint effects of labour market difficulties and large falls in house prices led to a situation where nearly one-in-five mortgage loans was in arrears at the height of the crisis (McCarthy, 2014)

Repayment capacity, debt service ratios and mortgage default: An exploration in crisis and non-crisis periods. ESRI Working Paper No. 652 February 2020

In this paper, we explore the impact of current household repayment capacity on mortgage default using household-level panel data over the period 2004-2017 for Ireland. We measure repayment capacity as changes in the level of the current debtservice to income ratio to capture a direct channel for affordability shocks. We model the relationship between repayment capacity and default using a discrete time logit survival model of default flows. We test for a non-linear relationship to explore whether negative and positive shocks have asymmetric effects and whether shocks depend on household absorptive capacity. We also test the differing impacts of repayment shocks in crisis and non-crisis times and whether any differences are explained by negative equity or liquidity constraints. A number of endings emerge. We find that deteriorations in current debt service capacity have a positive and increasing effect on default which is dependent on the level of indebtedness or absorptive capacity. We find that the relationship between deteriorations in the repayment capacity and default are worsened in crisis times and we show that this is due to the presence of negative equity and liquidity constraints in these periods

Estimating an SME investment gap and the contribution of financing frictions. ESRI WP589, March 2018

In this paper, we use firm-level survey data to explore the determinants of SME investment activity and the extent to which observed investment is in line with that suggested by economic fundamentals. In contrast to previous literature which has focused on whether investment gaps exist at a more aggregate level, we find evidence that for SMEs actual investment is below what would be expected given how companies are currently performing. The estimated magnitude of this investment gap is economically meaningful at just over 30 per cent in 2016. We explore the extent to which the gap is explained by financial market challenges such as access to finance, interest rates, and the availability of collateral. Financing frictions are found to account for a moderate share of the overall investment gap (between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the gap)

A county-level perspective on housing affordability in Ireland. ESRI Research Notes 2019/4/2

The issue of housing affordability in Ireland has come to the fore in recent years as house prices have increased significantly following the recovery. In a recent survey, Corrigan et al. (2019a) find that 86.5 per cent of renters expressed a preference for homeownership. However, rising house prices have led to serious concerns about the ability of first time buyers (FTB) to enter the housing market. This group has been cited as one particular pressure point in recent assessments of market affordability (Housing Agency, 2017). Analysis published in the ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary (McQuinn et al., 2018) finds that house price growth has been uneven across the distribution, with cheaper properties growing at faster rates than more expensive properties. This is likely to further exacerbate the affordability concerns of first time buyers, who typically enter the housing market at lower house price levels than second and subsequent borrowers

Fecal contamination of drinking-water in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: access to safe drinking-water is a fundamental requirement for good health and is also a human right. Global access to safe drinking-water is monitored by WHO and UNICEF using as an indicator “use of an improved source,” which does not account for water quality measurements. Our objectives were to determine whether water from “improved” sources is less likely to contain fecal contamination than “unimproved” sources and to assess the extent to which contamination varies by source type and setting.Methods and findings: studies in Chinese, English, French, Portuguese, and Spanish were identified from online databases, including PubMed and Web of Science, and grey literature. Studies in low- and middle-income countries published between 1990 and August 2013 that assessed drinking-water for the presence of Escherichia coli or thermotolerant coliforms (TTC) were included provided they associated results with a particular source type. In total 319 studies were included, reporting on 96,737 water samples. The odds of contamination within a given study were considerably lower for “improved” sources than “unimproved” sources (odds ratio [OR] = 0.15 [0.10–0.21], I2 = 80.3% [72.9–85.6]). However over a quarter of samples from improved sources contained fecal contamination in 38% of 191 studies. Water sources in low-income countries (OR = 2.37 [1.52–3.71]; p<0.001) and rural areas (OR = 2.37 [1.47–3.81] p<0.001) were more likely to be contaminated. Studies rarely reported stored water quality or sanitary risks and few achieved robust random selection. Safety may be overestimated due to infrequent water sampling and deterioration in quality prior to consumption.Conclusion: access to an “improved source” provides a measure of sanitary protection but does not ensure water is free of fecal contamination nor is it consistent between source types or settings. International estimates therefore greatly overstate use of safe drinking-water and do not fully reflect disparities in access. An enhanced monitoring strategy would combine indicators of sanitary protection with measures of water qualit

Exploring Affordability in the Irish Housing Market. ESRI WP593, June 2018

This paper examines housing affordability in Ireland by looking at the distribution of housing costs across households. Using microdata from the SILC survey over the period 2005-2015, the contribution of this paper is threefold. First, the paper considers the trends in the cost of housing in Ireland across groups of households split by age, region, household structure, and their position in the income distribution. Second, we apply selected international housing affordability definitions and explore the share, and composition, of households in Ireland that would be captured by these definitions. We do not find evidence of universal affordability difficulties in the Irish market. However, certain groups do face acute affordability challenges. Third, working towards a definition of housing cost affordability for use in Irish policy discussions, we provide some guidance as to what such a definition could look like

Know your HIV epidemic (KYE) report: review of the HIV epidemic in South Africa.

In order to update and consolidate South Africa’s evidence base for HIV-prevention interventions, it was decided by the Government of South Africa to commission a synthesis of the available data on the epidemiology of prevalent and incident HIV infections, and the wider epidemic context of these infections. This know your epidemic (KYE) approach has been successfully implemented in a number of sub-Saharan African countries.2 The process involves a desk review and secondary analysis of existing biological, behavioural and socio-demographic data in order to determine the epidemiology of new HIV infections. KYE reports present key findings and policy and programme recommendations which are grounded in local evidence and aim to support decision-making and improve HIV-prevention results. In 2010, South Africa also conducted a know your response (KYR) review, which critically assessed HIV-prevention policies, programmes and resource allocations. The overall results of this HIV epidemic review and the KYR review will be published in a separate, national KYE/KYR synthesis report

Holocene Sediment Production in Lillooet River Basin, British Colombia: A Sediment Budget Approach

A sediment budget approach is used to investigate the sources, storage, and yield of clastic sediment in Lillooet River watershed, in the southern Coast Mountains. The 3150 km2 basin is heavily glacierised, and includes a Quaternary volcanic complex which has been active in the Holocene. The sediment yield has been determined from the rate of advance of the delta at the basin outlet. The floodplain of the main river valley is aggrading as the delta advances, and probably has been through most of the Holocene. Major sediment sources in the basin include glaciers and Neoglacial deposits, debris flows, and landslides in the Quaternary volcanic complex. Soil and bedrock creep, bank erosion of Pleistocene glacial deposits, and sediment from logging and agriculture are probably of minor importance. Estimates of sediment production from these sources explain only about half the observed clastic sediment yield plus the rate of valley aggradation. The unexplained sediment production may be associated with paraglacial sediments exposed by glacial retreat from the nineteenth century Neoglacial maximum; alternatively the frequency of occurrence of intermediate scale debris flows and landslides has been seriously underestimated. Sediment supply is highly episodic over time scales of centuries to thousands of years. Major factors in the temporal pattern of Holocene sediment supply are periods of volcanism, large landslides, the retreat of glaciers from the Neoglacial maximum, and recent river engineering works.L'établissement du bilan sédimentaire sert ici à étudier les sources, le stockage et l'apport de sédiments détritiques dans le bassin versant de la Lillooet River, dans le sud des montagnes Côtières. Le bassin versant de 3150 km2 est partiellement englacé et comprend un complexe volcanique quaternaire qui a été actif à l'Holocène. L'apport de sédiments a été déterminé à partir de la vitesse de progression du delta situé à l'embouchure du bassin. La plaine d'inondation de la vallée principale se remblaye avec la progression du delta, ce qui a probablement aussi été le cas pendant la plus grande partie de l'Holocène. Les plus importantes sources de sédiments comprennent les glaciers et les dépôts néoglaciaires, les coulées boueuses et les glissements de terrain dans le complexe volcanique quaternaire. La reptation, l'érosion des rives formées dans les dépôts glaciaires pleistocenes, ainsi que le déboisement et l'agriculture sont probablement des sources mineures. La quantité de sédiments estimée à partir de ces sources ne compte que pour la moitié des sédiments détritiques observés, sans compter le remblaiement de la vallée. La quantité de sédiments non établie pourrait provenir des sédiments paraglaciaires mis à découvert par le retrait glaciaire survenu après l'optimum néoglaciaire du XIXe s. De même, on a grandement sous-estimé la fréquence des coulées boueuses et des glissements de terrain de moyenne envergure. Réparti sur de longues périodes, allant de centaines à des milliers d'années, l'apport en sédiments est très épisodique. Les principaux facteurs qui influencent le modèle temporel de la sédimentation sont les périodes de volcanisme, les grands glissements de terrain, le recul glaciaire après l'optimum du Néoglaciaire et les récents aménagements entrepris sur la rivière.Mittels einer Sedimentbilanz werden Ursprung, Lagerung und Anschwemmung der Trümmersedimente in der Wasserscheide des Lillooet River in den südlichen Küstenbergen untersucht. Das 3150 km2 grosse Becken ist stark vergletschert und umfasst einen vulkanischen Quaternâr-Komplex, der im Holozän aktiv war. Die Sedimentanschwemmung war durch die Vorstossrate des Deltas an der Beckenmündung bestimmt. Das Hochflutbett des Haupttals schüttet sich mit dem Vorrücken des Deltas auf und hat dies wahrscheinlich fast im gesamten Holozän getan. Zu den wichtigsten Sedimentquellen in dem Becken gehören Gletscher und neoglaziale Ablagerungen, Trümmerfluss und Bergstürze in dem vulkanischen Quaternär-Komplex. Gekriech von Erde und anstehendem Gestein, die Erosion der Abflachungen in den glazialen Ablagerungen des Pleistozän und Sediment aufgrund von Abholzung und Landwirtschaft sind wahrscheinlich von geringerer Bedeutung. Schätzungen der Sedimentproduktion dieser Herkunft erklàren nur die Hälfte der beobachteten Trummersedimentanschwemmung zuzùglich der Rate der Talaufschüttung. Die nichterklàrte Sedimentproduktion könnte mit paraglazialen Sedimenten, freigelegt durch den glazialen Rùckzug nach dem neoglazialen Hochstand im 19. Jahrhundert, in Verbindung gebracht werden; indessen hat man die Häufigkeit von Trümmerfluss und Bergstürzen mittleren Ausmasses ernstlich unterschätzt. Der Sedimentnachschub geschieht sehr episodisch in Zeiträumen von Jahrhunderten bis Tausenden von Jahren. Die Hauptfaktoren im Zeitmuster des Sedimentnachschubs im Holozän sind Perioden vulkanischer Aktivität, grosse Bergstürze, der Rückzug der Gletscher nach dem neoglazialen Hochstand und neuere Flussbauarbeiten