Science to the rescue or contingent progress? Comparing 10 years of public, expert and policy discourses on new and emerging science and technology in the United Kingdom

Over the past 10 years, numerous public debates on new and emerging science and technologies have taken place in the United Kingdom. In this article, we characterise the discourses emerging from these debates and compare them to the discourses in analogous expert scientific and policy reports. We find that while the public is broadly supportive of new scientific developments, they see the risks and social and ethical issues associated with them as unpredictable but inherent parts of the developments. In contrast, the scientific experts and policymakers see risks and social and ethical issues as manageable and quantifiable with more research and knowledge. We argue that these differences amount to two different sociotechnical imaginaries or views of science and how it shapes our world – an elite imaginary of ‘science to the rescue’ shared by scientists and policymakers and public counter-imaginary of ‘contingent progress’. We argue that these two imaginaries indicate that, but also help explain why, public dialogue has had limited impact on public policy

Can seasonal and interannual variation in landscape CO2 fluxes be detected by atmospheric observations of CO2 concentrations made at a tall tower?

The coupled numerical weather model WRF-SPA (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Soil-Plant-Atmosphere model) has been used to investigate a 3 yr time series of observed atmospheric CO₂ concentrations from a tall tower in Scotland, UK. Ecosystem-specific tracers of net CO₂ uptake and net CO₂ release were used to investigate the contributions to the tower signal of key land covers within its footprint, and how contributions varied at seasonal and interannual timescales. In addition, WRF-SPA simulated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were compared with two coarse global inversion models, CarbonTrackerEurope and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's CarbonTracker (CTE-CT). WRF-SPA realistically modelled both seasonal (except post harvest) and daily cycles seen in observed atmospheric CO₂ at the tall tower (<i>R</i>² = 0.67, rmse = 3.5 ppm, bias = 0.58 ppm). Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations from the tall tower were well simulated by CTE-CT, but the inverse model showed a poorer representation of diurnal variation and simulated a larger bias from observations (up to 1.9 ppm) at seasonal timescales, compared to the forward modelling of WRF-SPA. However, we have highlighted a consistent post-harvest increase in the seasonal bias between WRF-SPA and observations. Ecosystem-specific tracers of CO₂ exchange indicate that the increased bias is potentially due to the representation of agricultural processes within SPA and/or biases in land cover maps. The ecosystem-specific tracers also indicate that the majority of seasonal variation in CO₂ uptake for Scotland's dominant ecosystems (forests, cropland and managed grassland) is detectable in observations within the footprint of the tall tower; however, the amount of variation explained varies between years. The between years variation in detectability of Scotland's ecosystems is potentially due to seasonal and interannual variation in the simulated prevailing wind direction. This result highlights the importance of accurately representing atmospheric transport used within atmospheric inversion models used to estimate terrestrial source/sink distribution and magnitude

Canada’s New Role in North American Energy Security

Energy analysts have given renewed attention to Canada\u27s position in the North American energy market since the September 11th attacks, because of fear that conflict might interrupt the flow of oil from the Middle East. There are currently $30 billion (U.S.) in projects to develop the Alberta oil sands, in addition to new petroleum projects in Newfoundland, and major natural gas finds off the Atlantic coast. While Canada is already the single major oil exporter to the United States (ahead of both Saudi Arabia and Venezuela), its production could double by 2010. Canada’s rapidly increasing energy production has major implications both for hemispheric relations and for the United States’ strategic position. In the aftermath of September 11th energy security has become a key concern for the United States. After the attacks many commentators argued that the United States relied too heavily on Middle Eastern sources of supply, and that this factor not only limited U.S. actions, but also obliged the U.S. to engage with regimes that it found to be distasteful if not dangerous. Newspaper columnists decried America’s reliance on Saudi Arabia for energy, and some called for the United States to increase its energy self-sufficiency by opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska to drilling. Richard Holbrook, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, stated that Americans\u27 greatest single failure over the last twenty five years was our failure to reduce our dependence on foreign oil . . . which would have reduced the leverage of Saudi Arabia. Yet in fact the United States\u27 energy position is now stronger than it appears, and there is reason to believe that it will improve in the future, because of the growing importance of Canada as a source of petroleum

Variola minor in coalfield areas of England and Wales, 1921–34: geographical determinants of a national smallpox epidemic that spread out of effective control

This paper uses techniques of binary logistic regression to identify the spatial determinants of the last national epidemic of smallpox to spread in England and Wales, the variola minor epidemic of 1921–34. Adjusting for age and county-level variations in vaccination coverage in infancy, the analysis identifies a dose-response gradient with increasing odds of elevated smallpox rates in local government areas with (i) medium (odds ratio [OR] = 5.32, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] 1.96–14.41) and high (OR = 11.32, 95% CI 4.20–31.59) coal mining occupation rates and (ii) medium (OR = 16.74, 95% CI 2.24–125.21) and high (OR = 63.43, 95% CI 7.82–497.21) levels of residential density. The results imply that the spatial transmission of variola virus was facilitated by the close spatial packing of individuals, with a heightened transmission risk in coal mining areas of the country. A syndemic interaction between common respiratory conditions arising from exposure to coal dust and smallpox virus transmission is postulated to have contributed to the findings. We suggest that further studies of the geographical intersection of coal mining and acute infections that are transmitted via respiratory secretions are warranted

The diffusion of cholera in Egypt, 1947: a time-space analysis of one of the largest single outbreaks in the twentieth century

The epidemic of cholera that spread through Egypt in the latter months of 1947 was one of the largest single outbreaks of the disease in the twentieth century. Using a swash–backwash model, this paper examines the geographical wave-like spread and subsequent retreat of the epidemic from an apparent origin in the settlements and prisoner-of-war camps of the Nile Delta area to reach its maximum geographical extent some six weeks later at Aswan (850 km away). Our results demonstrate the very rapid spatial advance of the epidemic wave through the provinces and governorates of Egypt, with an approximately linear sequence of progression up the Nile. Superimposed on this national pattern are pronounced differences in the rate of epidemic advance in the traditional geographical divisions of Lower and Upper Egypt. Alternative visualisations of the cholera spaces of Egypt, using techniques of multidimensional scaling (MDS) and cluster analysis, underscore the differential patterns of cholera transmission in these areas of the country. The patterns are interpreted in relation to a vigorous control effort that included restrictions on public transport, patient isolation, contact tracing and mass vaccination of the entire population exposed to risk of infection

Preliminary Investigation Into The Benefits From Investments In Environmental Research: Case Studies on Water Clarity/Quality and The Biological Management of Possums

MoRST is performing an evaluation of the funds invested in environmental research. The two case studies discussed in this paper contribute to the ongoing decision-making about this investment. Substantial funds have been invested in both research programmes identified. Because the main benefits associated with research output are environmental, they are difficult to value monetarily. Preliminary analysis suggests that at a discount rate of 6%, annual future benefit flows of $7 -$10 million will justify the water quality/clarity research. The expenditure on possum biocontrol will be justified if the research generates an annual future benefit flow of $20 million.Cost benefit analysis, returns to research, environmental research, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Colour displays for categorical images

We propose a method for identifying a set of colours for displaying 2-D and 3-D categorical images when the categories are unordered labels. The principle is to find maximally distinct sets of colours. We either generate colours sequentially, to maximise the dissimilarity or distance between a new colour and the set of colours already chosen, or use a simulated annealing algorithm to find a set of colours of specified size. In both cases, we use a Euclidean metric on the perceptual colour space, CIE-LAB, to specify distances

Geographical perspectives on epidemic transmission of cholera in Haiti, October 2010 through March 2013

The current epidemic of El Tor cholera in the Caribbean republic of Haiti is one of the largest single outbreaks of the disease ever recorded. The prospects are that the epidemic will continue to present challenges to workers in public health medicine, epidemiology and allied fields in the social sciences for years to come. This article introduces geographers to the environmental context of the Haiti cholera epidemic, the principal data sources available to analyze the occurrence of the epidemic, and evidence regarding its geographical origins and dispersal during the first thirty months of the epidemic, October 2010–March 2013. Using weekly case data collated by the Haitian Ministère de la Santé Publique et de la Population (MSPP), techniques of time series analysis are used to examine inter- and intra-departmental patterns of cholera activity. Our analysis demonstrates a pronounced lag structure to the spatial development of the epidemic (Artibonite and northern departments Ouest and metropolitan Port-au-Prince southern departments). Observed variations in levels of epidemiological integration, both within and between departments, provide new perspectives on the spatio-temporal evolution of the epidemic to its March 2013 pattern

Suzbijanje geografskog širenja zaraze: kuga u Italiji od 1347.-1851.

After the establishment of the first quarantine station in the Republic of Ragusa (modern-day Dubrovnik) in 1377, the states and principalities of Italy developed a sophisticated system of defensive quarantine in an attempt to protect themselves from the ravages of plague. Using largely unknown and unseen historical maps, this paper reconstructs the extent and operation of the system used. It is shown that a cordon sanitaire existed around the coast of Italy for several centuries, consisting of three elements: (i) an outer defensive ring of armed sailing boats in the Mediterranean and the Adriatic, (ii) a middle coastal ring of forts and observation towers, and (iii) an inner defensive ring of land-based cavalry. The principles established, although not especially successful at the time against a disease of (then) unknown aetiology, are still used today in attempts to control the spread of infections of animal and human populations.Nakon uspostave prvoga lazareta u Dubrovačkoj Republici 1377., talijanske državice i kneževine razradile su sustav karantena kako bi se zaštitile od razarajućega djelovanja kuge. Oslanjajući se mahom na dosad nepoznate povijesne karte, u ovome se članku rekonstruira kako je i u kojem razmjeru djelovao sustav zaštite. Duž talijanske obale stoljećima je postojao sanitarni kordon, a sastojao se od tri dijela: (i) vanjski pojas sastavljen od naoružanih jedrenjaka na Sredozemnom i Jadranskome moru, (ii) srednji obrambeni pojas sastavljen od utvrda i promatračnica te (iii) unutarnji obrambeni pojas na kopnu sastavljen od konjice. Premda ovaj sustav svojevremeno i nije bio pretjerano uspješan u zaštiti od bolesti (tada) nepoznate etiologije, njegova se načela još uvijek rabe za sprječavanje širenja bolesti među ljudima i životinjama