Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness

Applications of Bayesian Networks as Decision Support Tools for Water Resource Management under Climate Change and Socio-Economic Stressors: A Critical Appraisal

Bayesian networks (BNs) are widely implemented as graphical decision support tools which use probability inferences to generate “what if?” and “which is best?” analyses of potential management options for water resource management, under climate change and socio-economic stressors. This paper presents a systematic quantitative literature review of applications of BNs for decision support in water resource management. The review quantifies to what extent different types of data (quantitative and/or qualitative) are used, to what extent optimization-based and/or scenario-based approaches are adopted for decision support, and to what extent different categories of adaptation measures are evaluated. Most reviewed publications applied scenario-based approaches (68%) to evaluate the performance of management measures, whilst relatively few studies (18%) applied optimization-based approaches to optimize management measures. Institutional and social measures (62%) were mostly applied to the management of water-related concerns, followed by technological and engineered measures (47%), and ecosystem-based measures (37%). There was no significant difference in the use of quantitative and/or qualitative data across different decision support approaches (p = 0.54), or in the evaluation of different categories of management measures (p = 0.25). However, there was significant dependence (p = 0.076) between the types of management measure(s) evaluated, and the decision support approaches used for that evaluation. The potential and limitations of BN applications as decision support systems are discussed along with solutions and recommendations, thereby further facilitating the application of this promising decision support tool for future research priorities and challenges surrounding uncertain and complex water resource systems driven by multiple interactions amongst climatic and non-climatic changes. View Full-Tex

Inuit Traditional Ecological Knowledge of Anadromous Arctic Char, iqalukpik (Salvelinus alpinus) Under Changing Climatic Conditions in the Amundsen Gulf, Western Canadian Arctic

Inuit in the western Canadian Arctic have observed climate change impacts in marine and freshwater environments that have resulted in changes in the abundance, movement ecology, and health of Arctic char, iqalukpik (Salvelinus alpinus), with implications for their fisheries. This research was co-designed with Inuit to investigate reported changes in anadromous Arctic char in waters near Ulukhaktok, Northwest Territories, Canada. An analysis of semi-structured interviews with 26 Inuit fishers not only documented changes in Arctic char population abundance, spatial movement, appearance, and taste but also changes in access to the fishery. Over the past several decades and becoming pronounced in recent years, fewer fish and specifically fewer medium-sized fish that are preferred by fishers, have been caught using nets near the settlement, with some showing poor body condition, and others appearing to originate from lakes outside of the expected spatial range, earlier in an extended summer coastal fishing season. Inuit have observed changes in individual fish with broader environmental changes that are also disrupting fishing activities: the increasing prevalence of Pacific salmon, warmer air and marine sea surface temperatures, inconsistent sea and lake ice conditions, stronger and more frequent wind and wave activity, fluctuating water levels in rivers, and a seasonal tunicate bloom. Inuit have responded to these changes by altering personal subsistence fishing practices and temporarily halting a small-scale community-based commercial fishery because of observations in stock declines and in order to prioritize the subsistence fishery

Reconstruction of primary vertices at the ATLAS experiment in Run 1 proton–proton collisions at the LHC

This paper presents the method and performance of primary vertex reconstruction in proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment during Run 1 of the LHC. The studies presented focus on data taken during 2012 at a centre-of-mass energy of √s=8 TeV. The performance has been measured as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing over a wide range, from one to seventy. The measurement of the position and size of the luminous region and its use as a constraint to improve the primary vertex resolution are discussed. A longitudinal vertex position resolution of about 30μm is achieved for events with high multiplicity of reconstructed tracks. The transverse position resolution is better than 20μm and is dominated by the precision on the size of the luminous region. An analytical model is proposed to describe the primary vertex reconstruction efficiency as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing and of the longitudinal size of the luminous region. Agreement between the data and the predictions of this model is better than 3% up to seventy interactions per bunch crossing

Gaia Data Release 1: Testing parallaxes with local Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars

Context. Parallaxes for 331 classical Cepheids, 31 Type II Cepheids, and 364 RR Lyrae stars in common between Gaia and the Hipparcos and Tycho-2 catalogues are published in Gaia Data Release 1 (DR1) as part of the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS). Aims. In order to test these first parallax measurements of the primary standard candles of the cosmological distance ladder, which involve astrometry collected by Gaia during the initial 14 months of science operation, we compared them with literature estimates and derived new period-luminosity (PL), period-Wesenheit (PW) relations for classical and Type II Cepheids and infrared PL, PL-metallicity (PLZ), and optical luminosity-metallicity (M V -[Fe/H]) relations for the RR Lyrae stars, with zero points based on TGAS. Methods. Classical Cepheids were carefully selected in order to discard known or suspected binary systems. The final sample comprises 102 fundamental mode pulsators with periods ranging from 1.68 to 51.66 days (of which 33 with σ Ω /Ω < 0.5). The Type II Cepheids include a total of 26 W Virginis and BL Herculis stars spanning the period range from 1.16 to 30.00 days (of which only 7 with σ Ω /Ω < 0.5). The RR Lyrae stars include 200 sources with pulsation period ranging from 0.27 to 0.80 days (of which 112 with σ Ω /Ω < 0.5). The new relations were computed using multi-band (V,I,J,K s ) photometry and spectroscopic metal abundances available in the literature, and by applying three alternative approaches: (i) linear least-squares fitting of the absolute magnitudes inferred from direct transformation of the TGAS parallaxes; (ii) adopting astrometry-based luminosities; and (iii) using a Bayesian fitting approach. The last two methods work in parallax space where parallaxes are used directly, thus maintaining symmetrical errors and allowing negative parallaxes to be used. The TGAS-based PL,PW,PLZ, and M V - [Fe/H] relations are discussed by comparing the distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud provided by different types of pulsating stars and alternative fitting methods. Results. Good agreement is found from direct comparison of the parallaxes of RR Lyrae stars for which both TGAS and HST measurements are available. Similarly, very good agreement is found between the TGAS values and the parallaxes inferred from the absolute magnitudes of Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars analysed with the Baade-Wesselink method. TGAS values also compare favourably with the parallaxes inferred by theoretical model fitting of the multi-band light curves for two of the three classical Cepheids and one RR Lyrae star, which were analysed with this technique in our samples. The K-band PL relations show the significant improvement of the TGAS parallaxes for Cepheids and RR Lyrae stars with respect to the Hipparcos measurements. This is particularly true for the RR Lyrae stars for which improvement in quality and statistics is impressive. Conclusions. TGAS parallaxes bring a significant added value to the previous Hipparcos estimates. The relations presented in this paper represent the first Gaia-calibrated relations and form a work-in-progress milestone report in the wait for Gaia-only parallaxes of which a first solution will become available with Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2) in 2018. © ESO, 2017

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Evaluation of a Smartwatch-based Intervention Providing Feedback of Daily Activity within a Research-Naive Stroke Ward: a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background. The majority of stroke patients are inactive outside formal therapy sessions. Tailored activity feedback via a Smartwatch has the potential to increase inpatient activity. Objective. to identify the challenges and support needed by ward staff and researchers and to examine the feasibility of conducting a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using Smartwatch activity monitors in research naive rehabilitation wards. Objectives (Phase 1 and 2) were to report any challenges and support needed and determine the recruitment and retention rate, completion of outcome measures, Smartwatch adherence rate (Phase 2 only) readiness to randomise, adherence to protocol (intervention fidelity) and potential for effect. Methods. First admission, stroke patients (onset <4 months) aged 40-75, able to walk 10m prior to stroke and follow a two stage command with sufficient cognition and vision (clinically judged) were recruited within the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Traditional Chinese Medicine. Phase 1: a non-randomised observation phase (to allow practice of protocol) - patients received no activity feedback. Phase 2: a parallel single-blind pilot RCT. Patients were randomised into one of two groups: to receive daily activity feedback over a nine hour period, or to receive no activity feedback. EQ-5D-5L, WHODAS and RMI were conducted at baseline, discharge and three months post-discharge. Descriptives statistics were performed on recruitment, retention, completion and activity counts as well as adherence to protocol. Results. Out of 470 ward admissions, 11% were recruited across the two phases, over a 30-week period. Retention rate at the three months post-discharge was 48%. 22% of patients dropped out post-baseline assessment, 78% completed baseline and discharge admissions, from which 62% were assessed three months post-discharge. Smartwatch data was received from all patients. Patients were correctly randomised into each RCT group. RCT adherence rate to wearing the Smartwatch was 80%. Baseline activity was exceeded for 65% of days in the feedback group compared to 55% of days in the no-feedback group. Conclusions. Delivery of a Smartwatch RCT is feasible in a research naive rehabilitation ward. However, frequent support and guidance of research-naive staff is required to ensure completeness of clinical assessment data and protocol adherence

High Effectiveness of Broad Access Direct-Acting Antiviral Therapy for Hepatitis C in an Australian Real-World Cohort: The REACH-C Study

Australia was one of the first countries with unrestricted access to government subsidized direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for adults with chronic hepatitis C virus. This study assessed real-world DAA treatment outcomes across a diverse range of Australian clinical services and evaluated factors associated with successful treatment and loss to follow-up. Real-world Effectiveness of Antiviral therapy in Chronic Hepatitis C (REACH-C) consisted a national observational cohort of 96 clinical services including specialist clinics and less traditional settings such as general practice. Data were obtained on consecutive individuals who commenced DAAs from March 2016 to June 2019. Effectiveness was assessed by sustained virological response ≥12 weeks following treatment (SVR) using intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) analyses. Within REACH-C, 10,843 individuals initiated DAAs (male 69%; ≥50 years 52%; cirrhosis 22%). SVR data were available in 85% (9,174 of 10,843). SVR was 81% (8,750 of 10,843) by ITT and 95% (8,750 of 9,174) by PP. High SVR (≥92%) was observed across all service types and participant characteristics. Male gender (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.72), cirrhosis (aOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.41-0.64), recent injecting drug use (IDU; aOR 0.64, 95% CI 0.46-0.91) and previous DAA treatment (aOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.28-0.90) decreased the likelihood of achieving SVR. Multiple factors modified the likelihood of loss to follow-up including IDU ± opioid agonist therapy (OAT; IDU only: aOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.44-2.11; IDU + OAT: aOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.11-1.74; OAT only, aOR 1.36; 95% CI 1.13-1.68) and age (aOR 0.97, 95% CI 0.97-0.98). Conclusion: Treatment response was high in a diverse population and through a broad range of services following universal access to DAA therapy. Loss to follow-up presents a real-world challenge. Younger people who inject drugs were more likely to disengage from care, requiring innovative strategies to retain them in follow-up

Retreatment for hepatitis C virus direct-acting antiviral therapy virological failure in primary and tertiary settings: The REACH-C cohort

Virological failure occurs in a small proportion of people treated for hepatitis C virus (HCV) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. This study assessed retreatment for virological failure in a large real-world cohort. REACH-C is an Australian observational study (n = 10,843) evaluating treatment outcomes of sequential DAA initiations across 33 health services between March 2016 to June 2019. Virological failure retreatment data were collected until October 2020. Of 408 people with virological failure (81% male; median age 53; 38% cirrhosis; 56% genotype 3), 213 (54%) were retreated once; 15 were retreated twice. A range of genotype specific and pangenotypic DAAs were used to retreat virological failure in primary (n = 56) and tertiary (n = 157) settings. Following sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/voxilaprevir availability in 2019, the proportion retreated in primary care increased from 21% to 40% and median time to retreatment initiation declined from 294 to 152 days. Per protocol (PP) sustained virological response (SVR12) was similar for people retreated in primary and tertiary settings (80% vs 81%; p = 1.000). In regression analysis, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/voxilaprevir (vs. other regimens) significantly decreased likelihood of second virological failure (PP SVR12 88% vs. 77%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.29; 95%CI 0.11–0.81); cirrhosis increased likelihood (PP SVR12 69% vs. 91%; AOR 4.26; 95%CI 1.64–11.09). Indigenous Australians had lower likelihood of retreatment initiation (AOR 0.36; 95%CI 0.15–0.81). Treatment setting and prescriber type were not associated with retreatment initiation or outcome. Virological failure can be effectively retreated in primary care. Expanded access to simplified retreatment regimens through decentralized models may increase retreatment uptake and reduce HCV-related mortality

Episodes of intensified biological productivity in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean during the termination of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO)

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is an ~500 kyr interval of pronounced global warming from which the climate system recovered in <50 kyr. The deep-sea sedimentary record can provide valuable insight on the marine ecosystem response to this protracted global warming event and consequently on the ecological changes during this time. Here we present new benthic foraminiferal assemblage data from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1051 in the subtropical North Atlantic, spanning the MECO and post-MECO interval (41.1 to 39.5 Ma). We ␣nd little change in the species composition of benthic foraminiferal assemblages during the studied interval, suggesting that the rate of environmental change was gradual enough that these organisms were able to adapt. However, we identify two transient intervals associated with peak warming (higher-productivity interval (HPI)-1; 40.07–39.96 Ma) and shortly after the MECO (HPI-2; 39.68–39.55 Ma), where benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates increase by an order of magnitude. These HPIs at Site 1051 appear to coincide with intervals of strengthened productivity in the Tethys, Southern Ocean, and South Atlantic, and we suggest that an intensi␣ed hydrological cycle during the climatic warmth of the MECO was responsible for eutrophication of marine shelf and slope environments