Retail Building Cycles: Evidence from Great Britain

This study examines the cyclical pattern of retail property development in Great Britain. It develops and estimates an econometric model of the volume of new development starts for retail buildings. Within the theoretical framework proposed, a dynamic specification based on changes in real retail rents and total consumer spending appears to adequately capture the cyclical variation in retail development. Changes in the values of these variables induce new retail construction within two years and an Almon polynomial lag scheme best describes the dynamic distribution of their lagged effects. Investment market influences on retail building development at the national level are not established in this study. There is also some indication of a changing economic relationship between new retail development and retail rents after mid-1995, but this can only be confirmed by appropriate tests when additional observations become available.

REGIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEM FAILURES AND HIGHLIGHTS

The systemic analysis of innovation conceives complex analytical frameworks, with intense socio-technological aspects of knowledge generation and encompasses a detailed analysis of system failures. These frameworks are not suitable for benchmarking a wide range of regions, due to low availability of such elaborate data sources. On the other hand, metric regional innovation micro data offer the opportunity for large-scale cross-regional benchmarking exercise illustrating mainly the market failures of the innovation systems although this type of analysis does not provide any detailed systemic envisioning. Is the combination of these two analytical approaches possible? This study presents the Interaction Intension Indicator (3I) analytical framework, analysing system failures and highlights of various regional innovation deployment patterns along with the analysis of the Romanian innovation system.Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes, Regional innovation policies, regional innovation metrics, regional innovation systems, innovation policy assessment

Automorphisms of Curves and Weierstrass semigroups for Harbater-Katz-Gabber covers

We study $p$-group Galois covers $X \rightarrow \mathbb{P}^1$ with only one fully ramified point. These covers are important because of the Katz-Gabber compactification of Galois actions on complete local rings. The sequence of ramification jumps is related to the Weierstrass semigroup of the global cover at the stabilized point. We determine explicitly the jumps of the ramification filtrations in terms of pole numbers. We give applications for curves with zero $p$--rank: we focus on maximal curves and curves that admit a big action. Moreover the Galois module structure of polydifferentials is studied and an application to the tangent space of the deformation functor of curves with automorphisms is given

Rent Adjustments and Forecasts in the Industrial Market

This study estimates models of industrial rents at the national level in Great Britain. James Lan Wooten and CB Hillier Parker rent indices are used to model changes in real rents. These changes are positively related to changes in real GDP and inversely affected by absorption, as measured by King Sturge & Co. Additionally, changes in rents convey information not captured by GDP and absorption. The lagged effects of the variables differ for each index, attributable to the construction methodologies followed. Dynamic forecasts for both models show a small overprediction in 1996 and 1997. Ex ante forecasts suggest that both will show positive real growth throughout 1998 and 1999.

Projections in the Industrial Property Market using a Simultaneous Equation System

A three-equation simultaneous system is used to model the industrial property market in Great Britain. Strong relationships are found between new industrial building supply and both real rents and construction costs, and between rents, industrial floorspace availability and the gross domestic product. The performance of ex post simulations of new building supply, rents and floorspace availability are satisfactory with the exception of rent simulations post 1993. The central forecast of the model indicates a quiet market until 2001 (lower level of new supply, constant levels of real rents and increasing availability of industrial space) but a more active market in 2002 and 2003. This study suggests that simultaneous equation models can prove useful alternative tools in analysing the industrial property market and generating forecasts both at the aggregate and more localised level of analysis.