Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic

Reliable forecasts of the timing of sea ice advance are needed in order to reduce risks associatedwith operating in the Arctic as well as planning of human and environmental emergencies. This studyinvestigates the use of a simple statistical model relating the timing of ice retreat to the timing of ice advance,taking advantage of the inherent predictive power supplied by the seasonal ice-albedo feedback and oceanheat uptake. Results show that using the last retreat date to predict the first advance date is applicable insome regions, such as Baffin Bay and the Laptev and East Siberian seas, where a predictive skill is found evenafter accounting for the long-term trend in both variables. Elsewhere, in the Arctic, there is some predictive skillsdepending on the year (e.g., Kara and Beaufort seas), but none in regions such as the Barents and Bering seas orthe Sea of Okhotsk. While there is some suggestion that the relationship is strengthening over time, this mayreflect that higher correlations are expected during periods when the underlying trend is strong

Space Station Freedom automation and robotics: An assessment of the potential for increased productivity

This report presents the results of a study performed in support of the Space Station Freedom Advanced Development Program, under the sponsorship of the Space Station Engineering (Code MT), Office of Space Flight. The study consisted of the collection, compilation, and analysis of lessons learned, crew time requirements, and other factors influencing the application of advanced automation and robotics, with emphasis on potential improvements in productivity. The lessons learned data collected were based primarily on Skylab, Spacelab, and other Space Shuttle experiences, consisting principally of interviews with current and former crew members and other NASA personnel with relevant experience. The objectives of this report are to present a summary of this data and its analysis, and to present conclusions regarding promising areas for the application of advanced automation and robotics technology to the Space Station Freedom and the potential benefits in terms of increased productivity. In this study, primary emphasis was placed on advanced automation technology because of its fairly extensive utilization within private industry including the aerospace sector. In contrast, other than the Remote Manipulator System (RMS), there has been relatively limited experience with advanced robotics technology applicable to the Space Station. This report should be used as a guide and is not intended to be used as a substitute for official Astronaut Office crew positions on specific issues

Stable Isotope clues to the formation and evolution of refrozen melt ponds on Arctic Sea ice.

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 123(12), (2018): 8887-8901, doi:10.1029/2018JC013797.Sea ice is one of the determining parameters of the climate system. The presence of melt ponds on the surface of Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in the mass balance of sea ice. A total of nine cores was collected from multiyear ice refrozen melt ponds and adjacent hummocks during the 2015 Arctic Sea State research cruise. The depth profiles of water isotopes, salinity, and ice texture for these sea ice cores were examined to provide information about the development of refrozen melt ponds and water balance generation processes, which are otherwise difficult to acquire. The presence of meteoric water with low oxygen isotope values as relatively thin layers indicates melt pond water stability and little mixing during formation and refreezing. The hydrochemical characteristics of refrozen melt pond and seawater depth profiles indicate little snowmelt enters the upper ocean during melt pond refreezing. Due to the seasonal characters of deuterium excess for Arctic precipitation, water balance calculations utilizing two isotopic tracers (oxygen isotope and deuterium excess) suggest that besides the melt of snow cover, the precipitation input in the melt season may also play a role in the evolution of melt ponds. The dual‐isotope mixing model developed here may become more valuable in a future scenario of increasing Arctic precipitation. The layers of meteoric origin were found at different depths in the refrozen melt pond ice cores. Surface topography information collected at several core sites was examined for possible explanations of different structures of refrozen melt ponds.The coauthors (S. F. A., S. S., T. M., and B. W.) wish to thank the other DRI participants and the Captain and crew of the Sikuliaq's October 2015 cruise for their assistance in the sample collections analyzed in the paper. Jim Thomson (Chief Scientist), Scott Harper (ONR Program Manager), and Martin Jeffries (ONR Program Manager) are particularly acknowledged for their unwavering assistance and leadership during the 5 years of the SeaState DRI. We thank Guy Williams for production of the aerial photo mosaic. Funding from the Office of Naval Research N00014‐13‐1‐0435 (S. F. A. and B. W.), N00014‐13‐1‐0434 (S. S.), and N00014‐13‐1‐0446 (T. M.) supported this research through grants to UTSA, UColorado, and WHOI, respectively. This project was also funded (in part) by the University of Texas at San Antonio, Office of the Vice President for Research (Y. G. and S. F. A.). Data for the stable isotope mixing models used in this study are shown in supporting information Tables S1–S3.2019-05-1

Feedbacks between ice cover, ocean stratification, and heat content in Ryder Bay, western Antarctic Peninsula

A multi-year, all-season time series of water column physical properties and sea ice conditions in Ryder Bay, at the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), is used to assess the effects on the ocean of varying ice cover. Reduced ice cover leads to increased mixing and heat loss in the winter. The reduction in stratification persists into the following summer, preconditioning the water column to a greater vertical extent of surface-driven mixing. This leads to an increased amount of heat from insolation being mixed down, affecting approximately the top 100m. The increased heat uptake in summer exceeds the heat lost the preceding winter, giving the initially counter-intuitive effect that enhanced winter cooling generates warmer temperatures in the following summer and autumn. This process is therefore a positive feedback on sea ice, as reduced sea ice leads to increased heat content in the ocean the following autumn. It also causes increased winter atmospheric temperatures due to the increased winter heat loss from the ocean. In the deeper part of the water column, heat and carbon stored in the Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) layer are released by deep mixing events. At these depths, conditions are restored by advection and vertical mixing on multi-year timescales. In recent years, stronger deep mixing events in winter have led to a persistent reduction in CDW temperatures at the study site. Ocean glider data demonstrate the representativeness of these results across the wider region of Marguerite Bay, within which Ryder Bay is situated

Linked trends in the South Pacific sea ice edge and Southern Oscillation Index

Previous work have shown that sea ice variability in the South Pacific is associated with extratropical atmospheric anomalies linked to the Southern Oscillation (SO). Over a 32 year period (1982–2013), our study shows that the trend in Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also able to quantitatively explain the trends in sea ice edge, drift, and surface winds in this region. On average two thirds of the winter ice edge trend in this sector, linked to ice drift and surface winds, could be explained by the positive SOI trend, thus subjecting the ice edge to strong decadal SO variability. If this relationship holds, the negative SOI trend prior to the recent satellite era suggests that ice edge trends opposite to that of the recent record over a similar time scale. Significant low-frequency ice edge trends, linked to the natural variability of SO, are superimposed upon any trends expected of anthropogenic forcing

The Amundsen Sea Polynya International Research Expedition (ASPIRE)

In search of an explanation for some of the greenest waters ever seen in coastal Antarctica and their possible link to some of the fastest melting glaciers and declining summer sea ice, the Amundsen Sea Polynya International Research Expedition (ASPIRE) challenged the capabilities of the US Antarctic Program and RVIB Nathaniel B. Palmer during Austral summer 2010–2011. We were well rewarded by both an extraordinary research platform and a truly remarkable oceanic setting. Here we provide further insights into the key questions that motivated our sampling approach during ASPIRE and present some preliminary findings, while highlighting the value of the Palmer for accomplishing complex, multifaceted oceanographic research in such a challenging environment

Anomalous peak in Antarctic sea-ice area, winter 1998, coincident with ENSO

The results of an updated satellite analysis of hemispheric and regional Antarctic sea-ice cover are presented based on October 1987-September I999 Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. These show an ongoing slight but significant hemispheric increase of 3.7(±0.3) in extent and 6.6(±1.5) in area. In the two principal sectors, Weddell Sea ice extent (area) decreased by 3.4(±1.0) (3.9(±4.6)) and Ross Sea ice extent (area) increased by 10.9(±1.0) (18.3(±4.6)). Hemispheric, Ross Sea and Western Pacific Ocean ice peaks in September 1998 were anomalously high, and may have been related to atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the Pacific Ocean and beyond associated with that year's exceptionally strong ENSO. Preliminary comparison of Antarctic sea-ice-concentration data with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses fields suggests that the unusually extensive sea ice in winter 1998 was concomitant with an equatorward shift of the circumpolar westerly surface winds over the southern Pacific Ocean

Penguin biogeography along the West Antarctic Peninsula: Testing the canyon hypothesis with Palmer LTER observations

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is home to large breeding colonies of the ice-dependent Antarctic Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). Although the entire inner continental shelf is highly productive, with abundant phytoplankton and krill populations, penguin colonies are distributed heterogeneously along the WAP (Ducklow et al., 2013, in this issue). This ecological conundrum targets a long-standing question of interest: what environmental factors structure the locations of Adélie penguin "hot spots" throughout the WAP

Freshwater distributions and water mass structure in the Amundsen Sea Polynya region, Antarctica

We present the first densely-sampled hydrographic survey of the Amundsen Sea Polynya (ASP) region, including a detailed characterization of its freshwater distributions. Multiple components contribute to the freshwater budget, including precipitation, sea ice melt, basal ice shelf melt, and iceberg melt, from local and non-local sources. We used stable oxygen isotope ratios in seawater (δ18O) to distinguish quantitatively the contributions from sea ice and meteoric-derived sources. Meteoric fractions were high throughout the winter mixed layer (WML), with maximum values of 2–3% (±0.5%). Because the ASP region is characterized by deep WMLs, column inventories of total meteoric water were also high, ranging from 10–13 m (±2 m) adjacent to the Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS) and in the deep trough to 7–9 m (±2 m) in shallower areas. These inventories are at least twice those reported for continental shelf waters near the western Antarctic Peninsula. Sea ice melt fractions were mostly negative, indicating net (annual) sea ice formation, consistent with this area being an active polynya. Independently determined fractions of subsurface glacial meltwater (as one component of the total meteoric inventory) had maximum values of 1–2% (±0.5%), with highest and shallowest maximum values at the DIS outflow (80–90 m) and in iceberg-stirred waters (150–200 m). In addition to these upwelling sites, contributions of subsurface glacial meltwater could be traced at depth along the ~ 27.6 isopycnal, from which it mixes into the WML through various processes. Our results suggest a quasi-continuous supply of melt-laden iron-enriched seawater to the euphotic zone of the ASP and help to explain why the ASP is Antarctica’s most biologically productive polynya per unit area

Tropical influence independent of ENSO on the austral summer Southern Annular Mode

A link between atmospheric variability in the Tropics independent of ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is found based on seasonal mean data for austral summer. Variations associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are removed usinga linear method and a Tropics Index (TI) is defined as the zonal average of the ENSO-removed 500 hPa geopotential height between 10°S and 10°N. Since the detrended TI shows no link to SST variability in the Tropics, it appears to be related to internal atmospheric variability. We find that the TI can explain about 40% variance of the SAM interannual variability and about 75% of the SAM long term trend between 1957/58 and 2001/02, where here the SAM includes the ENSO signal. Positive/negative values of the TI are associated with the positive/negative SAM. A possible link between the TI and global warming is noted