Uncertainty of net present value calculations and the impact on applying integrated maintenance approaches to the UK rail industry

The Public performance indicator (PPI) is an important Key Performance Indicator for Network Rail and monitored carefully by the organisation and their external stakeholders. Condition monitoring is of increasing interest within network rail as a suitable method for increasing asset reliability and improving the PPI metric. As condition monitoring methods are identified each will need assessment to establish the cost and benefit. Benefit can be measured in cost savings as poor PPI performance results in fines. Within many industries Net Present Value (NPV) calculations are used to determine how quickly investments will break-even. Cost-risk is a term that is used to describe the financial impact of an unexpected event (a risk). This paper outlines a more detailed approach to calculating NPV which considers the cost-risk effect of changes of the denial of service charging rate. NPV prediction is of importance when assessing when to deploy different fault detection strategies to maintenance issues, and therefore the cost-risk of the NPV calculation should be used to support asset management decisions

Using experiments and expert judgment to model catchability of Pacific rockfishes in trawl surveys, with application to bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) off British Columbia

The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities

Ares I-X Separation and Reentry Trajectory Analyses

The Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle was launched on October 28, 2009 and was the first and only test flight of NASA s two-stage Ares I launch vehicle design. The launch was successful and the flight test met all of its primary and secondary objectives. This paper discusses the stage separation and reentry trajectory analysis that was performed in support of the Ares I-X test flight. Pre-flight analyses were conducted to assess the risk of stage recontact during separation, to evaluate the first stage flight dynamics during reentry, and to define the range safety impact ellipses of both stages. The results of these pre-flight analyses were compared with available flight data. On-board video taken during flight showed that the flight test vehicle successfully separated without any recontact. Reconstructed trajectory data also showed that first stage flight dynamics were well characterized by pre-flight Monte Carlo results. In addition, comparisons with flight data indicated that the complex interference aerodynamic models employed in the reentry simulation were effective in capturing the flight dynamics during separation. Finally, the splash-down locations of both stages were well within predicted impact ellipses

A Proposed Ascent Abort Flight Test for the Max Launch Abort System

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center initiated the Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) Project to investigate alternate crew escape system concepts that eliminate the conventional launch escape tower by integrating the escape system into an aerodynamic fairing that fully encapsulates the crew capsule and smoothly integrates with the launch vehicle. This paper proposes an ascent abort flight test for an all-propulsive towerless escape system concept that is actively controlled and sized to accommodate the Orion Crew Module. The goal of the flight test is to demonstrate a high dynamic pressure escape and to characterize jet interaction effects during operation of the attitude control thrusters at transonic and supersonic conditions. The flight-test vehicle is delivered to the required test conditions by a booster configuration selected to meet cost, manufacturability, and operability objectives. Data return is augmented through judicious design of the boost trajectory, which is optimized to obtain data at a range of relevant points, rather than just a single flight condition. Secondary flight objectives are included after the escape to obtain aerodynamic damping data for the crew module and to perform a high-altitude contingency deployment of the drogue parachutes. Both 3- and 6-degree-of-freedom trajectory simulation results are presented that establish concept feasibility, and a Monte Carlo uncertainty assessment is performed to provide confidence that test objectives can be met

Dysmenorrhea: diagnostics

This issue of eMedRef provides information to clinicians on the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and therapeutics of dysmenorrhea

Reviews

Francis Botto, Dictionary of Multimedia and Internet Applications ‐ A Guide for Developers and Users, Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, 1999. ISBN: 0–471–986240. Hardback, x+362 pages, £34.95

Making the great transformation, November 13, 14, and 15, 2003

This repository item contains a single issue of the Pardee Conference Series, a publication series that began publishing in 2006 by the Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future. This Conference took place during November 13, 14, and 15, 2003. Co-organized by Cutler Cleveland and Adil Najam.The conference discussants and participants analyze why transitions happen, and why they matter. Transitions are those wide-ranging changes in human organization and well being that can be convincingly attributed to a concerted set of choices that make the world that was significantly and recognizably different from the world that becomes. Transition scholars argue that that history does not just stumble along a pre-determined path, but that human ingenuity and entrepreneurship have the ability to fundamentally alter its direction. However, our ability to ‘will’ such transitions remains in doubt. These doubts cannot be removed until we have a better understanding of how transitions work

Altered Prefrontal Theta and Gamma Activity during an Emotional Face Processing Task in Parkinson Disease.

Patients with Parkinson disease (PD) often experience nonmotor symptoms including cognitive deficits, depression, and anxiety. Cognitive and affective processes are thought to be mediated by prefrontal cortico-basal ganglia circuitry. However, the topography and neurophysiology of prefrontal cortical activity during complex tasks are not well characterized. We used high-resolution electrocorticography in pFC of patients with PD and essential tremor, during implantation of deep brain stimulator leads in the awake state, to understand disease-specific changes in prefrontal activity during an emotional face processing task. We found that patients with PD had less task-related theta-alpha power and greater task-related gamma power in the dorsolateral pFC, inferior frontal cortex, and lateral OFC. These findings support a model of prefrontal neurophysiological changes in the dopamine-depleted state, in which focal areas of hyperactivity in prefrontal cortical regions may compensate for impaired long-range interactions mediated by low-frequency rhythms. These distinct neurophysiological changes suggest that nonmotor circuits undergo characteristic changes in PD

The epigenetic clock is correlated with physical and cognitive fitness in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936

Background: The DNA methylation-based 'epigenetic clock' correlates strongly with chronological age, but it is currently unclear what drives individual differences. We examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between the epigenetic clock and four mortality-linked markers of physical and mental fitness: lung function, walking speed, grip strength and cognitive ability. Methods: DNA methylation-based age acceleration (residuals of the epigenetic clock estimate regressed on chronological age) were estimated in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 at ages 70 (n=920), 73 (n=299) and 76 (n=273) years. General cognitive ability, walking speed, lung function and grip strength were measured concurrently. Cross-sectional correlations between age acceleration and the fitness variables were calculated. Longitudinal change in the epigenetic clock estimates and the fitness variables were assessed via linear mixed models and latent growth curves. Epigenetic age acceleration at age 70 was used as a predictor of longitudinal change in fitness. Epigenome-wide association studies (EWASs) were conducted on the four fitness measures. Results: Cross-sectional correlations were significant between greater age acceleration and poorer performance on the lung function, cognition and grip strength measures (r range: -0.07 to -0.05, P range: 9.7 x 10 to 0.024). All of the fitness variables declined over time but age acceleration did not correlate with subsequent change over 6 years. There were no EWAS hits for the fitness traits. Conclusions: Markers of physical and mental fitness are associated with the epigenetic clock (lower abilities associated with age acceleration). However, age acceleration does not associate with decline in these measures, at least over a relatively short follow-up