Forecasting substantial data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty

A recent revision to the preliminary measurement of GDP(E) growth for 2003Q2 caused considerable press attention, provoked a public enquiry and prompted a number of reforms to UK statistical reporting procedures. In this article, we compute the probability of 'substantial revisions' that are greater (in absolute value) than the controversial 2003 revision. The predictive densities are derived from Bayesian model averaging over a wide set of forecasting models including linear, structural break and regime-switching models with and without heteroscedasticity. Ignoring the nonlinearities and model uncertainty yields misleading predictives and obscures recent improvements in the quality of preliminary UK macroeconomic measurements

Tanzania HIV/AIDS and Malaria Indicator Survey\ud 2007-08\ud

HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Tanzania, anti malaria, Treatmen

Tanzania HIV/AIDS Indicator Survey 2003-04

The Tanzania Commission for AIDS (TACAIDS) authorised the National Bureau of Statistics\ud (NBS) to conduct the THIS. The THIS is the first household survey of its kind to be conducted in Tanzania.\ud The survey covered the Tanzania Mainland only.The main objective of the survey was to provide HIV/AIDS programme managers and policymakerswith information needed to guide planning and implementation of interventions, including resource mobilization and allocation, monitoring and evaluation of existing programmes, and designing new and effective strategies for combating the epidemic.\ud Before this survey, national HIV prevalence estimates depended entirely on data derived from\ud blood donors and pregnant women seeking antenatal care. Although this information from the surveillance system has been useful for monitoring the trends of HIV in Tanzania, the inclusion of HIV testingin the THIS offers the opportunity to better understand the magnitude and pattern of infection in the generalreproductive-age population in Tanzania. The THIS results are in turn expected to improve the calibrationof the annual sentinel surveillance data, so that trends in HIV infection can be more accurately\ud measured in the intervals between household surveys.\ud This report contains findings from the 2003-04 THIS collected from the households visited. The\ud survey was designed to produce regional estimates. The tables and text cover the most important indicatorsrelated to HIV/AIDS and should be of use to policymakers and programme administrators who needup-to-date data for evaluating their activities and planning future directions.\u

Workplace bullying a risk for permanent employees

Objective: We tested the hypothesis that the risk of experiencing workplace bullying was greater for those employed on casual contracts compared to permanent or ongoing employees. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based telephone survey was conducted in South Australia in 2009. Employment arrangements were classified by self-report into four categories: permanent, casual, fixed-term and self-employed. Self-report of workplace bullying was modelled using multiple logistic regression in relation to employment arrangement, controlling for sex, age, working hours, years in job, occupational skill level, marital status and a proxy for socioeconomic status. Results: Workplace bullying was reported by 174 respondents (15.2%). Risk of workplace bullying was higher for being in a professional occupation, having a university education and being separated, divorced or widowed, but did not vary significantly by sex, age or job tenure. In adjusted multivariate logistic regression models, casual workers were significantly less likely than workers on permanent or fixed-term contracts to report bullying. Those separated, divorced or widowed had higher odds of reporting bullying than married, de facto or never-married workers. Conclusions: Contrary to expectation, workplace bullying was more often reported by permanent than casual employees. It may represent an exposure pathway not previously linked with the more idealised permanent employment arrangement. Implications: A finer understanding of psycho-social hazards across all employment arrangements is needed, with equal attention to the hazards associated with permanent as well as casual employment

Narratives of ethnic identity among practitioners in community settings in the northeast of England

The increasing ethnic diversity of the UK has been mirrored by growing public awareness of multicultural issues, alongside developments in academic and government thinking. This paper explores the contested meanings around ethnic identity/ies in community settings, drawing on semi-structured interviews with staff from Children’s Centres and allied agencies conducted for a research project that examined the relationship between identity and the participation of parents/carers in services in northeast England. The research found that respondents were unclear about, especially, white ethnic identities, and commonly referred to other social categorizations, such as age, nationality, and circumstances such as mobility, when discussing service users. While in some cases this may have reflected legitimate attempts to resist overethnicizing non-ethnic phenomena, such constructions coexisted with assumptions about ethnic difference and how it might translate into service needs. These findings raise important considerations for policy and practice

Scenario-led modelling of broadleaf forest expansion in Wales

Context Significant changes in the composition and extent of the UK forest cover are likely to take place in the coming decades. Current policy targets an increase in forest area, for example the Welsh Government aims for forest expansion by 2030, and a purposeful shift from non-native conifers to broadleaved tree species, as identified by the UK Forestry Standard Guidelines on Biodiversity. Objectives Using the example of Wales, we aim to generate evidence-based projection of impact of contrasting policy scenarios on the state of forests in the near future, with the view of stimulating debate and aiding decisions concerning plausible outcomes of different policies. Methods We quantified changes in different land use and land cover (LULC) classes in Wales between 2007 and 2015 and used a Multi-layer perceptron-Markov chain ensemble modelling approach to project the state of Welsh forests in 2030 under the current and an alternate policy scenario. Results The current level of expansion and restoration of broadleaf forest in Wales is sufficient to deliver on existing policy goals. We also show effects of a more ambitious afforestation policy on the Welsh landscape. In a key finding, the highest intensity of broadleaf expansion is likely to shift from south-eastern to a more central areas of Wales. Conclusion The study identifies the key predictors of LULC change in Wales. High resolution future land cover simulation maps using these predictors offers an evidence-based tool for forest managers and government officials to test effects of existing and alternative policy scenarios