The Young and the Restless: Population Age Structure and Civil War

Three months after the attacks of September 11, 2001, the New York Times asked, Is the Devil in the Demographics? (Sciolino, 2001). The article examined the vulnerability of large cohorts of unemployed youth to extremist ideology and political recruitment, and speculated about the hazards created by future youth cohorts in the Middle East. In the post-9/11 era, however, there has been very little academic research on the relationship between youthful age structure and warfare (three notable exceptions: Urdal, 2002; Hammel & Smith, 2002; Cincotta et al., 2003). Literature on civil war and insurgency has instead highlighted the role of other causal factors such as the presence of valuable resources, the degree of ethnic fractionalization, and type of political regime, while downplaying the importance of population age structure (see, e.g., Collier & Hoeffler, 2001; Fearon & Laitin, 2003; Elbadawi & Sambanis, 2002). While these factors likely play an important role in the onset of civil war, the importance of youthful age structure - particularly in insurgency-based civil wars - should not be ignored. The relationship between large youth cohorts and civil war appears to have held throughout history. For example, Herbert Moller (1968) suggests that wars in pre-modern and present-day Europe, including the rise of the Nazi party in Germany, corresponded with surges in the proportion of young men in the population. Yale historian Paul Kennedy (1993) argues that revolutions occur more often in countries with large populations of "energetic, frustrated, young men." Even after controlling for the fact that more youthful countries are less developed and have more vulnerable political regimes, my research finds that a large difference in the number of young adults compared to the number of older adults - "relative cohort size" - can help predict civil war, particularly insurgent-based civil wars...

How Many Persons in East Timor Went 'Missing' During the Indonesian Occupation?: Results from Indirect Estimates

Indonesias occupation of East Timor from 1975 to 1999 caused an unknown number of deaths due to violence and starvation. In the first few years alone casualty estimates range from 60,000 (Houk 1978) to over 300,000 (Defert 1992). Recent statistical work done for the Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation in East Timor (CAVR) concludes that there were at least 102,800 (+/- 12,000) conflict-related deaths during the period (Silva and Ball 2006). However, this is a conservative estimate. This paper complements the existing estimate by calculating a reasonable high-end estimate, using standard demographic methods of indirect estimation to census data from before, during, and after the Indonesian occupation. My results suggest that a reasonable upper bound on excess deaths during the period is 204,000 (+/-51,000). Since technically these are "missing persons" some could have emigrated, been overlooked by a later census, or, in the case of children, not been born. Great care is taken to ensure that these sources of error are minimized as much as possible. Sensitivity tests were conducted on these results using a variety of different assumptions, yielding estimates as low as 100,000 and as high as 360,000. Previous efforts to indirectly compute the "missing" population in East Timor simply extrapolated earlier-period population growth rates in order to surmise the number of missing persons. The estimates computed here are much more sophisticated: they indicate the age and sex distribution behind these totals, and account for changing migration, fertility, and baseline mortality during the period in order to help isolate the population that went missing due to excess mortality alone

Using explainable food swaps to nudge users towards more sustainable products in grocery websites

The growing concern for climate issues has prompted both consumers and the grocery retail industry to prioritize environmental sustainability. This thesis aims to examine the effectiveness of nudging users towards more sustainable food options in an online grocery store using food swaps. Further, the study utilizes different motivational explanations accompanying the swaps to investigate their impact on swap acceptance and perceived understand- ing. A mockup supermarket interface was created, and screenshots were uploaded to an online survey tool, where participants (N=202) were assigned to one of four conditions (baseline, health, sustainability, or money). Results indicate that motivational framing did not significantly influence swap acceptance. However, perceived understandability was significant in affecting swap acceptance, with the sustainability framing being better understood. Participants were more likely to swap when the cost of the alternative product increased, suggesting other factors influenced consumer behavior. Finally, perceived similarity between the original and alternative product significantly affected the swap acceptance and perceived similarity, where meat swaps showed a strong positive, statistical significance. This thesis provided novel work within the field of encouraging more sustainable products in online grocery shopping services, which can further be expanded by implementing sustainable food swaps in a recommender system.Masteroppgave i informasjonsvitenskapINFO390MASV-INF

Is there an association between firm's green bond issuance and their financial performance?

Masteroppgave(MSc) in Master of Science in Business, Accounting and Business Control - Handelshøyskolen BI, 2023This thesis explores the relationship between green bond issuance and financial and environmental performance. The study utilizes a panel dataset consisting of 832 conventional bonds and 81 green bonds that were issued during the period 2016 to 2021. For the purpose of gaining an overview of the financial analysis of capital structure and how green bond affects profitability and firm’s performance, we have explored the relationship between green bonds issuance and profitability in American firms. A fixed effects model is used to examine the relationship between green bond issuance and both financial and environmental performance. The aim is to determine if there is a positive association between these factors. The main finding of our thesis is that green bond issuance is not positively associated with financial performance. However, the results indicate that green bond issuance is positively associated with environmental performance, which is consistent with our hypothesis

Mestring hos pasienter med stomi: Det skjulte handikap

Bakgrunn: I dag har vi omtrent 10 000 – 12 000 nordmenn med permanent stomi. Vi ser en økning og kan forvente at antall mennesker med stomi vil stige ytterligere i årene som kommer. En stomioperasjon er et alvorlig inngrep, og påvirker både livssituasjonen, selvbildet og forholdet til egen kropp. For mange kan den nye livssituasjonen være vanskelig å mestre. Problemstilling: Hvordan fremme mestring hos pasienter med stomi? Hensikt: Formålet med bacheloroppgaven er å rette oppmerksomheten mot pasienter med stomi sine psykiske reaksjoner og behov, og hvordan mestring fremmes hos denne pasientgruppen. Kunnskapen jeg har tilegnet meg vil jeg også bruke til å opplyse og undervise andre sykepleiere. Metode: Bacheloroppgaven er et litteraturstudie, hvor forskning og faglitteratur er benyttet for å belyse problemstillingen. Funn: I de gjennomgåtte studiene har det vist seg at mestring hos stomiopererte er et allmennmenneskelig og sammensatt fenomen bestående av flere viktige faktorer. Tilpasning til endret kroppsbilde, sosial støtte, praktisk forståelse, optimisme og normalisering er tilsynelatende sentrale aspekt for pasientenes mestring av livet med stomi. Konklusjon: Behovet for mestring varierer, og hva hver enkelt pasient tillegger situasjonen av betydning er avgjørende for hvordan vedkommende mestrer den. Sykepleier kan fremme mestring hos denne pasientgruppen ved å gi profesjonell støtte og veiledning til likemannsstøtte, informere, undervise og veilede, samt å fokusere på det positive og å gi aksept. Til slutt er det viktigste enkelttiltaket for å fremme mestring hos denne pasientgruppen åpenhet

På hvilken måte påvirker GDPR bruk og utvikling av kunstig intelligens, og hvordan kan teknologien utnyttes?

Bacheloroppgave i Forretningsutvikling og teknologi fra Handelshøyskolen BI, 2020EUs personvernforordning, GDPR, trådte i kraft 20. Juli 2018 og skal sikre at regler om personvern overholdes, og sørger for at data ikke misbrukes. Ny teknologi utfordrer personvernet dersom det ikke settes grenser. Behovet for satsninger på langsiktig teknologi står sentralt i det norske samfunnet. Teknologien kunstig intelligens kan bidra til å effektivisere, automatisere og standardisere arbeidsoppgaver i forretningsdrift. Følgende problemstilling drøftes i denne oppgaven: «På hvilken måte påvirker GDPR bruk og utvikling av kunstig intelligens, og hvordan kan teknologien utnyttes?» Personvern-implikasjonene er viktig for å ivareta individers frihet, samfunnets utvikling og etiske retningslinjer. Oppgaven fokuserer på hvordan bruk og utvikling av kunstig intelligens påvirkes av personvernhensyn i norske virksomheter, med hovedvekt på norske banker. Datagrunnlaget baserer seg på primærdata gjennom kvalitative intervjuer og sekundærdata fra supplerende litteratur. Oppgaven vil derfor være undersøkende og eksplorativt med et kausalt forskningsdesign. I analyse og drøftingskapittelet vil funn fra informanter knyttes opp mot relevant teori. Drøftingen inneholder avveininger om innebygd personvern, personvernkonsekvenser og tre av personvernprinsippene knyttet opp mot kunstig intelligens. Siste del av oppgaven vil trekke ut slutninger om sammenhenger som kan besvare problemstillingen, og trekke konklusjoner

Impact of Integrated Services on HIV Testing: A Nonrandomized Trial among Kenyan Family Planning Clients.

The impact of integrated reproductive health and HIV services on HIV testing and counseling (HTC) uptake was assessed among 882 Kenyan family planning clients using a nonrandomized cohort design within six intervention and six "comparison" facilities. The effect of integration on HTC goals (two tests over two years) was assessed using conditional logistic regression to test four "integration" exposures: a training and reorganization intervention; receipt of reproductive health and HIV services at recruitment; a functional measure of facility integration at recruitment; and a woman's cumulative exposure to functionally integrated care across different facilities over time. While recent receipt of HTC increased rapidly at intervention facilities, achievement of HTC goals was higher at comparison facilities. Only high cumulative exposure to integrated care over two years had a significant effect on HTC goals after adjustment (aOR 2.94, 95%CI 1.73-4.98), and programs should therefore make efforts to roll out integrated services to ensure repeated contact over time