Politiets forebygging av rekruttering til gjenger - avskrekking eller overbevisning? : en teoretisk oppgave

Bachelor i politiutdannin

The Bioeconomics of Controlling an African Rodent Pest Species

The paper treats the economy of controlling an African pest rodent, the multimammate rat, causing major damage in maize production. An ecological population model is presented and used as a basis for the economic analyses carried out at the village level using data from Tanzania. This model incorporates both density-dependent and density-independent (stochastic) factors. Rodents are controlled by applying poison, and the economic benefits depend on the income from maize production minus the costs for maize production, fertiliser and poison. We analyse how the net present value of maize production is affected by various rodent control strategies, by varying the duration and timing of rodenticide application. Our numerical results suggest that, in association with fertiliser, it is economically beneficial to control the rodent population. In general the most rewarding duration of controlling the rodent population is 3-4 months every year, and especially at the end of the dry season/beginning of rainy season. The paper demonstrates that changing from todays practice of symptomatic treatment when heavy rodent damage is noticed to a practice where the calendar is emphasised, may substantially improve the economic conditions for the maize producing farmers. This main conclusion is quite robust and not much affected by changing prices and costs of the maize production.bio-economics; pest control; multimammate rat; crop production

Desert locust populations, rainfall and climate change: insights from phenomenological models using gridded monthly data

Using autocorrelation analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)modelling, we analysed a time series of the monthly number of 1° grid squares infested with desert locust Schistocerca gregaria swarms throughout the geographical range of the species from 1930–1987. Statistically significant first- and higher-order autocorrelations were found in the series. Although endogenous components captured much of the variance, adding rainfall data improved endogenous ARIMA models and resulted in more realistic forecasts. Using a square-root transformation for the locust data improved the fit. The models were only partially successful when accounting for the dramatic changes in abundance which may occur during locust upsurges and declines, in some cases successfully predicting these phenomena but underestimating their severity. Better fitting models were also produced when rainfall data were added to models of an equivalent series for desert locust hoppers (nymphs) that incorporated lagged data for locust swarms as independent variables, representing parent generations. The results are discussed in relation to predicting likely changes in desert locust dynamics with reference to potential effects of climate change

Experimental evidence that livestock grazing intensity affects cyclic vole population regulation processes

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Harvest-induced disruptive selection increases variance in fitness-related traits

The form of Darwinian selection has important ecological and management implications. Negative effects of harvesting are often ascribed to size truncation (i.e. strictly directional selection against large individuals) and resultant decrease in trait variability, which depresses capacity to buffer environmental change, hinders evolutionary rebound and ultimately impairs population recovery. However, the exact form of harvest-induced selection is generally unknown and the effects of harvest on trait variability remain unexplored. Here we use unique data from the Windermere (UK) long-term ecological experiment to show in a top predator (pike, Esox lucius) that the fishery does not induce size truncation but disruptive (diversifying) selection, and does not decrease but rather increases variability in pike somatic growth rate and size at age. This result is supported by complementary modelling approaches removing the effects of catch selectivity, selection prior to the catch and environmental variation. Therefore, fishing most likely increased genetic variability for somatic growth in pike and presumably favoured an observed rapid evolutionary rebound after fishery relaxation. Inference about the mechanisms through which harvesting negatively affects population numbers and recovery should systematically be based on a measure of the exact form of selection. From a management perspective, disruptive harvesting necessitates combining a preservation of large individuals with moderate exploitation rates, and thus provides a comprehensive tool for sustainable exploitation of natural resources

Optimal age- and gear-specific harvesting policies for North-East Arctic cod

We examine optimal harvest policies in a multi-cohort, multi-gear bioeconomic model of North-East Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) which includes cannibalism and contains broader ecosystem effects. By controlling the selectivity of the different fishing equipment, we can partially target different age cohorts. We show that current gear selectivity implies that the wrong fish are targeted. Optimization shifts the exploitation pattern towards older and heavier fish. This increases the harvested biomass while reducing the number of fish removed from the ocean. The result is a much more robust and abundant cod stock with an age/size distribution closer to the stocks natural state. We optimize the Net Present Value (NPV) generated by the fishery by letting effort and selectivity be the control variables and find that NPV may be more than doubled, even when only gear selectivity or harvest effort is allowed to vary. (141 words

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world’s largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock’s feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population’s age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock’s historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution.

Peer reviewe

Alpha managers - an advantage or disadvantage for the organization

The role of the manager is crucial to the organization. Managers set goals, develop strategies and define tasks of workers, create environment for the development of people and give meaning to their activities. Professional skills are of vital importance to manager’s success. These very skills are the distinguishing characteristics of alpha managers. The aim of the following paper is to present some of the most established ideas in the field of leadership styles, to compare them with the concept of alpha managers and draw some conclusions important to management

Economic repercussions of fisheries-induced evolution

Fish stocks experiencing high fishing mortality show a tendency to mature earlier and at a smaller size, which may have a genetic component and therefore long-lasting economic and biological effects. To date, the economic effects of such ecoevolutionary dynamics have not been empirically investigated. Using 70 y of data, we develop a bioeconomic model for Northeast Arctic cod to compare the economic yield in a model in which life-history traits can vary only through phenotypic plasticity with a model in which, in addition, genetic changes can occur. We find that evolutionary changes toward faster growth and earlier maturation occur consistently even if a stock is optimally managed. However, if a stock is managed optimally, the evolutionary changes actually increase economic yield because faster growth and earlier maturation raise the stock's productivity. The optimal fishing mortality is almost identical for the evolutionary and nonevolutionary model and substantially lower than what it has been historically. Therefore, the costs of ignoring evolution under optimal management regimes are negligible. However, if fishing mortality is as high as it has been historically, evolutionary changes may result in economic losses, but only if the fishery is selecting for medium-sized individuals. Because evolution facilitates growth, the fish are younger and still immature when they are susceptible to getting caught, which outweighs the increase in productivity due to fish spawning at an earlier age