Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordClimate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.The authors acknowledge support from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in the preparation of the International Dimensions Assessment of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. W.N.A. acknowledges support from High-end Climate Impacts and Extremes project of the EU. S.S. would like to acknowledge the financial support of Ireland’s Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the EPA Research Programme 2014–2020, of the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, and of the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment through the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

Skin Lesion Analyser: An Efficient Seven-Way Multi-Class Skin Cancer Classification Using MobileNet

Skin cancer, a major form of cancer, is a critical public health problem with 123,000 newly diagnosed melanoma cases and between 2 and 3 million non-melanoma cases worldwide each year. The leading cause of skin cancer is high exposure of skin cells to UV radiation, which can damage the DNA inside skin cells leading to uncontrolled growth of skin cells. Skin cancer is primarily diagnosed visually employing clinical screening, a biopsy, dermoscopic analysis, and histopathological examination. It has been demonstrated that the dermoscopic analysis in the hands of inexperienced dermatologists may cause a reduction in diagnostic accuracy. Early detection and screening of skin cancer have the potential to reduce mortality and morbidity. Previous studies have shown Deep Learning ability to perform better than human experts in several visual recognition tasks. In this paper, we propose an efficient seven-way automated multi-class skin cancer classification system having performance comparable with expert dermatologists. We used a pretrained MobileNet model to train over HAM10000 dataset using transfer learning. The model classifies skin lesion image with a categorical accuracy of 83.1 percent, top2 accuracy of 91.36 percent and top3 accuracy of 95.34 percent. The weighted average of precision, recall, and f1-score were found to be 0.89, 0.83, and 0.83 respectively. The model has been deployed as a web application for public use at (https://saketchaturvedi.github.io). This fast, expansible method holds the potential for substantial clinical impact, including broadening the scope of primary care practice and augmenting clinical decision-making for dermatology specialists.Comment: This is a pre-copyedited version of a contribution published in Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, Hassanien A., Bhatnagar R., Darwish A. (eds) published by Chaturvedi S.S., Gupta K., Prasad P.S. The definitive authentication version is available online via https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3383-9_1

Priority for the Worse Off and the Social Cost of Carbon

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary measure of the harms from carbon emission. Specifically, it is the reduction in current consumption that produces a loss in social welfare equivalent to that caused by the emission of a ton of CO2. The standard approach is to calculate the SCC using a discounted-utilitarian social welfare function (SWF)—one that simply adds up the well-being numbers (utilities) of individuals, as discounted by a weighting factor that decreases with time. The discounted-utilitarian SWF has been criticized both for ignoring the distribution of well-being, and for including an arbitrary preference for earlier generations. Here, we use a prioritarian SWF, with no time-discount factor, to calculate the SCC in the integrated assessment model RICE. Prioritarianism is a well-developed concept in ethics and theoretical welfare economics, but has been, thus far, little used in climate scholarship. The core idea is to give greater weight to well-being changes affecting worse off individuals. We find substantial differences between the discounted-utilitarian and non-discounted prioritarian SCC

A Single-Arm, Proof-Of-Concept Trial of Lopimune (Lopinavir/Ritonavir) as a Treatment for HPV-Related Pre-Invasive Cervical Disease

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is the most common female malignancy in the developing nations and the third most common cancer in women globally. An effective, inexpensive and self-applied topical treatment would be an ideal solution for treatment of screen-detected, pre-invasive cervical disease in low resource settings. METHODS: Between 01/03/2013 and 01/08/2013, women attending Kenyatta National Hospital's Family Planning and Gynaecology Outpatients clinics were tested for HIV, HPV (Cervista®) and liquid based cervical cytology (LBC -ThinPrep®). HIV negative women diagnosed as high-risk HPV positive with high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) were examined by colposcopy and given a 2 week course of 1 capsule of Lopimune (CIPLA) twice daily, to be self-applied as a vaginal pessary. Colposcopy, HPV testing and LBC were repeated at 4 and 12 weeks post-start of treatment with a final punch biopsy at 3 months for histology. Primary outcome measures were acceptability of treatment with efficacy as a secondary consideration. RESULTS: A total of 23 women with HSIL were treated with Lopimune during which time no adverse reactions were reported. A maximum concentration of 10 ng/ml of lopinavir was detected in patient plasma 1 week after starting treatment. HPV was no longer detected in 12/23 (52.2%, 95%CI: 30.6-73.2%). Post-treatment cytology at 12 weeks on women with HSIL, showed 14/22 (63.6%, 95%CI: 40.6-82.8%) had no dysplasia and 4/22 (18.2%, 95%CI: 9.9-65.1%) were now low grade demonstrating a combined positive response in 81.8% of women of which 77.8% was confirmed by histology. These data are supported by colposcopic images, which show regression of cervical lesions. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate the potential of Lopimune as a self-applied therapy for HPV infection and related cervical lesions. Since there were no serious adverse events or detectable post-treatment morbidity, this study indicates that further trials are clearly justified to define optimal regimes and the overall benefit of this therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry 48776874

The BDNF Val66Met polymorphism moderates the relationship between cognitive reserve and executive function

The concept of cognitive reserve (CR) has been proposed to account for observed discrepancies between pathology and its clinical manifestation due to underlying differences in brain structure and function. In 433 healthy older adults participating in the Tasmanian Healthy Brain Project, we investigated whether common polymorphic variations in apolipoprotein E (APOE) or brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) influenced the association between CR contributors and cognitive function in older adults. We show that BDNF Val66Met moderates the association between CR and executive function. CR accounted for 8.5% of the variance in executive function in BDNF Val homozygotes, but CR was a nonsignificant predictor in BDNF Met carriers. APOE polymorphisms were not linked to the influence of CR on cognitive function. This result implicates BDNF in having an important role in capacity for building or accessing CR

MRI of the lung (3/3)-current applications and future perspectives

BACKGROUND: MRI of the lung is recommended in a number of clinical indications. Having a non-radiation alternative is particularly attractive in children and young subjects, or pregnant women. METHODS: Provided there is sufficient expertise, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) may be considered as the preferential modality in specific clinical conditions such as cystic fibrosis and acute pulmonary embolism, since additional functional information on respiratory mechanics and regional lung perfusion is provided. In other cases, such as tumours and pneumonia in children, lung MRI may be considered an alternative or adjunct to other modalities with at least similar diagnostic value. RESULTS: In interstitial lung disease, the clinical utility of MRI remains to be proven, but it could provide additional information that will be beneficial in research, or at some stage in clinical practice. Customised protocols for chest imaging combine fast breath-hold acquisitions from a "buffet" of sequences. Having introduced details of imaging protocols in previous articles, the aim of this manuscript is to discuss the advantages and limitations of lung MRI in current clinical practice. CONCLUSION: New developments and future perspectives such as motion-compensated imaging with self-navigated sequences or fast Fourier decomposition MRI for non-contrast enhanced ventilation- and perfusion-weighted imaging of the lung are discussed. Main Messages • MRI evolves as a third lung imaging modality, combining morphological and functional information. • It may be considered first choice in cystic fibrosis and pulmonary embolism of young and pregnant patients. • In other cases (tumours, pneumonia in children), it is an alternative or adjunct to X-ray and CT. • In interstitial lung disease, it serves for research, but the clinical value remains to be proven. • New users are advised to make themselves familiar with the particular advantages and limitations

Two novel human cytomegalovirus NK cell evasion functions target MICA for lysosomal degradation

NKG2D plays a major role in controlling immune responses through the regulation of natural killer (NK) cells, αβ and γδ T-cell function. This activating receptor recognizes eight distinct ligands (the MHC Class I polypeptide-related sequences (MIC) A andB, and UL16-binding proteins (ULBP)1–6) induced by cellular stress to promote recognition cells perturbed by malignant transformation or microbial infection. Studies into human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) have aided both the identification and characterization of NKG2D ligands (NKG2DLs). HCMV immediate early (IE) gene up regulates NKGDLs, and we now describe the differential activation of ULBP2 and MICA/B by IE1 and IE2 respectively. Despite activation by IE functions, HCMV effectively suppressed cell surface expression of NKGDLs through both the early and late phases of infection. The immune evasion functions UL16, UL142, and microRNA(miR)-UL112 are known to target NKG2DLs. While infection with a UL16 deletion mutant caused the expected increase in MICB and ULBP2 cell surface expression, deletion of UL142 did not have a similar impact on its target, MICA. We therefore performed a systematic screen of the viral genome to search of addition functions that targeted MICA. US18 and US20 were identified as novel NK cell evasion functions capable of acting independently to promote MICA degradation by lysosomal degradation. The most dramatic effect on MICA expression was achieved when US18 and US20 acted in concert. US18 and US20 are the first members of the US12 gene family to have been assigned a function. The US12 family has 10 members encoded sequentially through US12–US21; a genetic arrangement, which is suggestive of an ‘accordion’ expansion of an ancestral gene in response to a selective pressure. This expansion must have be an ancient event as the whole family is conserved across simian cytomegaloviruses from old world monkeys. The evolutionary benefit bestowed by the combinatorial effect of US18 and US20 on MICA may have contributed to sustaining the US12 gene family

The hand of Homo naledi

A nearly complete right hand of an adult hominin was recovered from the Rising Star cave system, South Africa. Based on associated hominin material, the bones of this hand are attributed to Homo naledi. This hand reveals a long, robust thumb and derived wrist morphology that is shared with Neandertals and modern humans, and considered adaptive for intensified manual manipulation. However, the finger bones are longer and more curved than in most australopiths, indicating frequent use of the hand during life for strong grasping during locomotor climbing and suspension. These markedly curved digits in combination with an otherwise human-like wrist and palm indicate a significant degree of climbing, despite the derived nature of many aspects of the hand and other regions of the postcranial skeleton in H. naledi

Internet-based search of randomised trials relevant to mental health originating in the Arab world

BACKGROUND: The internet is becoming a widely used source of accessing medical research through various on-line databases. This instant access to information is of benefit to busy clinicians and service users around the world. The population of the Arab World is comparable to that of the United States, yet it is widely believed to have a greatly contrasting output of randomised controlled trials related to mental health. This study was designed to investigate the existence of such research in the Arab World and also to investigate the availability of this research on-line. METHODS: Survey of findings from three internet-based potential sources of randomised trials originating from the Arab world and relevant to mental health care. RESULTS: A manual search of an Arabic online current contents service identified 3 studies, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO searches identified only 1 study, and a manual search of a specifically indexed, study-based mental health database, PsiTri, revealed 27 trials. CONCLUSION: There genuinely seem to be few trials from the Arab world and accessing these on-line was problematic. Replication of some studies that guide psychiatric/psychological practice in the Arab world would seem prudent

Quantitative estimation of tissue blood flow rate

The rate of blood flow through a tissue (F) is a critical parameter for assessing the functional efficiency of a blood vessel network following angiogenesis. This chapter aims to provide the principles behind the estimation of F, how F relates to other commonly used measures of tissue perfusion, and a practical approach for estimating F in laboratory animals, using small readily diffusible and metabolically inert radio-tracers. The methods described require relatively nonspecialized equipment. However, the analytical descriptions apply equally to complementary techniques involving more sophisticated noninvasive imaging. Two techniques are described for the quantitative estimation of F based on measuring the rate of tissue uptake following intravenous administration of radioactive iodo-antipyrine (or other suitable tracer). The Tissue Equilibration Technique is the classical approach and the Indicator Fractionation Technique, which is simpler to perform, is a practical alternative in many cases. The experimental procedures and analytical methods for both techniques are given, as well as guidelines for choosing the most appropriate method