Robust multi-year climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems

Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures is weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes towards improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption

Developing a quality assurance metric: a panoptic view

This article is a post-print of the published article that may be accessed at the link below. Copyright @ 2006 Sage Publications.There are a variety of techniques that lecturers can use to get feedback on their teaching - for example, module feedback and coursework results. However, a question arises about how reliable and valid are the content that goes into these quality assurance metrics. The aim of this article is to present a new approach for collecting and analysing qualitative feedback from students that could be used as the first stage in developing more reliable quality assurance metrics. The approach, known as the multi-dimensional crystal view, is based on the belief that individuals have different views on the benefits that the embedded process in a system can have on the behaviour of the system. The results of this study indicate that in the context of evaluation and feedback methods, the multi-dimensional approach appears to provide the opportunity for developing more effective student feedback mechanisms

“True fan = watch match”? In Search of the ‘Authentic’ Soccer Fan.

Academics have created typologies to divide association football (soccer) fans into categories based upon the assumed ‘authenticity’ of their fandom practices. One of the main requirements of ‘authentic’ fandom has been assumed to be match attendance. The goal of this paper was to critically assess this assumption through considering how fans themselves talk about the significance of match attendance as evidence of ‘authentic’ fandom. In light of the fact that the voices of English non-league fans on the ‘authenticity’ debate have so far been overshadowed by the overbearing focus of much previous research on the upper echelons of English soccer, an e-survey was conducted with 151 members of an online community of fans of English Northern League (NL) clubs (a semi-professional / amateur league based in North East England). Findings revealed that opinion was divided on the constituents of ‘authentic’ fandom and match attendance was not deemed to be the core evidence of support for a club by 42% of the sample. Elias (1978) suggested that dichotomous thinking hinders sociological understanding and it is concluded that fan typologies are not sufficient for assessing the ‘authenticity’ of fan activities

Pathways into and through higher education for young people with experience of children’s social care

Young people with experience of children’s social care are less likely to enter and progress through higher education, according to our new report published today: Pathways into and through higher education for young people with experience of children’s social care. The study found that care leavers – and those who have ever been in care – are four times less likely to enter higher education by age 22, and are also more than twice as likely to drop out compared with their peers in the general population. The research, undertaken by the Rees Centre, shows that the pathways to higher education for young people with experience of children’s social care tend to vary depending on type and period.  In a call to action for the sector, TASO is recommending that higher education providers support the entry and progression of these students – for example through additional funding in the form of a student premium for care leavers. Those with experience of children’s social care who progress to higher education are more likely to attend later in life, and to take a vocational route to get there. These findings point to a need for all higher education providers to accept students from vocational routes, and to set strategies for recruiting mature learners. This call is relevant to all providers, but especially high-tariff or more ‘prestigious’ universities, where care leavers are notably underrepresented

BRCA2 polymorphic stop codon K3326X and the risk of breast, prostate, and ovarian cancers

Background: The K3326X variant in BRCA2 (BRCA2*c.9976A>T; p.Lys3326*; rs11571833) has been found to be associated with small increased risks of breast cancer. However, it is not clear to what extent linkage disequilibrium with fully pathogenic mutations might account for this association. There is scant information about the effect of K3326X in other hormone-related cancers. Methods: Using weighted logistic regression, we analyzed data from the large iCOGS study including 76 637 cancer case patients and 83 796 control patients to estimate odds ratios (ORw) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for K3326X variant carriers in relation to breast, ovarian, and prostate cancer risks, with weights defined as probability of not having a pathogenic BRCA2 variant. Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we also examined the associations of K3326X with breast and ovarian cancer risks among 7183 BRCA1 variant carriers. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The K3326X variant was associated with breast (ORw = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.40, P = 5.9x10- 6) and invasive ovarian cancer (ORw = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.43, P = 3.8x10-3). These associations were stronger for serous ovarian cancer and for estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer (ORw = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.2 to 1.70, P = 3.4x10-5 and ORw = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.28 to 1.76, P = 4.1x10-5, respectively). For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was a statistically significant inverse association of the K3326X variant with risk of ovarian cancer (HR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.22 to 0.84, P = .013) but no association with breast cancer. No association with prostate cancer was observed. Conclusions: Our study provides evidence that the K3326X variant is associated with risk of developing breast and ovarian cancers independent of other pathogenic variants in BRCA2. Further studies are needed to determine the biological mechanism of action responsible for these associations